Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

A week on from this point we are at today, Italy had 3405 deaths.
Let's bookmark today's numbers and see where we're at in a week, on April 4th. Hopefully our trajectory will change, and we won't also be near 3405.

itsgettingweird

The population size doesn't make any difference to the trajectory until we start hitting the peak.

Thanks fate - I strongly suspect the number of deaths each day is not usually published on the day, as there wouldn't be much point normally. But the figures may be available after the end of March, for the whole month?

I suppose it is a variant of the question whether someone has died of coronavirus, as opposed to 'with coronavirus'. If the number of all deaths from respiratory problems is stable or fluctuating rather than showing the same upward trend, then I suppose the increase could be partly due to the fact that it becomes more likely each day that any individual tests positive for cv. (And I think the percentage of positive test results has increased today? - one day's figures not telling us much, I know)

I think we need to be careful what we believe. I have a family member who is an A&E doctor in Watford.

His view is that most people who die supposedly of covid already were actually ill with other conditions which they would have succumbed to sooner than later.

Interesting - thanks @Moomin8.

The Italian daily press conference with the head of the Protezione Civile and the other bods said this evening that Italy's peak is now expected in some areas within the next 10 days and others up to 14 days from now.

So if we’re 14-16 days behind Italy does that mean our peak could be 24-28 days away? I was hoping it would be sooner as the Imperial expert predicted. Just because it’ll mean the end is more in sight

Oh the ONS are good!

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Spread sheet of weekly death rates and causes for 2020. Latest data set is 13th March 2020.

However (!) England and Wales only. Scotland and N Ireland must be reported separately.

My grandmother has just died. She tested positive for cv19. She had well controlled type 2 diabetes and was in her late 80s. Had she not contracted this, she could be annoying me for at least another decade.

She died alone in icu. My family have to shield and I'm too far away.

She'll be in the figures tomorrow.

We are not doing well. We are not tracking any country exactly. But we are fucked. And more will come. Sooner rather than later

I’m so sorry JeanJackeys

@alloutoffucks

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-intensive-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate

Front page of the Guardian in the last few hours.

That fits with China though doesn’t it with a 6% critical rate and 3% death rate so 50/50

I'm so sorry JeanJackeys

I posted the link in reference to an earlier discussion on the ICU mortality rate, which sadly is shaping up to be very high.

She was a bloody idiot. Out and about and blaming foreign people. Not realising, despite our pleading, she was most at risk.

I'm furious. A nasty, selfish and racist old woman has just passed. But how many people has she infected? I'm so angry at her. She knew this and still did what she did.

I'm day 15 of self isolation. Why couldn't she have stayed in

I'm so sorry, JeanJackeys.

Sorry if I ruffled feathers but have seen a great many interpretations over the last few days and not all good maths.
Looking at the data available to me the doubling time in days of patients who are testing positive in hospital started off at less than 2.5 days but is has climb to 3 days. Using some complex stuff it is likely that there are more than 300000 people who are actually positive currently.
We are quite a long way from the steep part of the exponential curve and it will be May and June before we see the figures in the millions. By June the total infected may reach 30million then it will flatten.
These figures were analysed by a colleague and assume that curve flattening measures are not particularly effective.
I suspect that he is not far off the government model hence the need for high risk and vulnerable to shield during the most active phase.
By July the numbers levelling will give the NHS relief it needs.
I still don’t think comparing our figures with other countries is productive though.

Sorry the 2.5 to 3 days doubling is encouraging. and his latest figures are adjusted for social distancing.
He started his analysis at 84 cases and has not used Italy’s figures to compare.
His initial aim was to see if encouraging smoking cessation would improve survival rate.
I’m not sure if I can share the full spread sheet.

Thanks Fate - you are also good,,for finding them! So once the figures for w/e 20th and 27th March are published, it will be possible to see whether all deaths, and all deaths from respiratory diseases, are increasing. Then have to ask whether or not any change is statistically significant of course - that bit will be totally beyond me.

I suppose another relevant question would be how they compare with the same week in previous recent years - which those ONS figures also show.

.

@FATEdestiny thanks for sharing that. Let’s hope we’re nowhere near Italy’s 1809 tomorrow...

I thank everyone but mostly, I'm angry at someone who should have known better and refused to listen

We weren't close.

If course I will grieve but equally, I just don't care. She shouldn't have behaved that way and I'm more worried about who she infected.

Looking at @FATEdestiny’s chart, like others have said it does look like we’re now 16 days behind Italy. I’m hopeful we can open up a wider gap, but today’s death figure was pretty devastating.

From The Daily Mail:

The deadly virus is continuing to spread across the country at an exponential rate - it took just 13 days for the number of deaths to go from one to more than 100.

And it has only taken a further 10 days for the total to go from 100 to more than 1,000.

His view is that most people who die supposedly of covid already were actually ill with other conditions which they would have succumbed to sooner than later.

Ive heard this, along with the idea that these people shouldn't be included in the daily death toll as it's not corona that killing them, but if it's true why is the death rate so high in other countries (and rising quickly here) if these people were going to die anyway. Basically you can't say that this many people would have died anyway.

Jean and I'll raise a glass to your grandma

Those ONS figures are interesting. They only go up to 14 days ago.
Where were we in figures of deaths 14 days ago because death rate itself seems to have dropped but been stable at same time since January?

Why do I get the impression that people are almost willing the UK deaths rate just to prove that they are right and the govt experts are wrong.

I'm sorry but I can't believe what I am reading here.

I am no fan of our government and i most certainly didn't vote for them but boy do i hope they are right.

It's not a fucking competition. We need to all do a bit to make this work and make this right for the UK

If we all do that then maybe we will save a few lives.

And Jean it can be easy no matter what