Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

But what I don't understand is what we would gain from testing huge numbers of the general public?

It's a bit late now as the damage has already been done, but testing would have saved many people. Once you're tested and found positive you would be isolated, as in properly isolated, not oh I'll still pop to the shops and take the dog for a wander. And if found negative you would t catch it the next day as all the posit tube people would be in isolation. It's also about tracking people so, if I tested positive then everyone in my office would then have isolated too and probably their families too. Instead we have people walking around not knowing that they been in contact with 3 possible cases already,

Yes the vulnerable would still need to be protected, but remember this is a very infectious disease, it transmits very easily,

But we wouldn’t need to act normally, the total opposite, the whole point of it is we need to social distance ourselves, so if we do catch it, it is an incredibly low dose, and our bodies are more than capable of fighting it naturallly, so you’d just get a minor cold or no symptoms at all.

You can even catch it off touching a hard surface, just walking through the air hours after someone has walked though it and coughed, it’s not hard for vast swathes of people to catch it. And a low dose of it.

As for testing, I think they need to understand what percentage of the population already has had it, they have no clue. Some scientists are thinking nearly half the population already have. We might even be close to herd immunity now, or we might be miles away. But because so many people have mild to no symptoms, they simply don’t know where we are on that curve.

None of this seems to be definite, it just seems this is what the scientists are now starting to think, they could be wrong.🤷‍♀️

An element of the success of testing is due to psychology I believe. I’ve seen a lot of people questioning their symptoms (myself included) but not being able to confirm anything which leads to complacency or talking yourself out of it. It would also help to make it a tangible reality for those who didn’t/still don’t comprehend that it’s out there.

I also think down the line if we want to control isolated outbreaks (which are likely) and maintain some sort of working society there has to be testing. It’s possible to quarantine an area and track people who have been within that area with testing and other isolation awareness. Not a popular method but I don’t see how else we can function or learn to live with this.

@Utterlybutterly8 I'm really hoping for widespread home testing to be available soon, because once I know I have had it and have my immunity, I'll be able to visit and help my vulnerable family again!

... pressed post too soon.
At the moment I have a bit of a runny nose, a dry cough, fatigue and aches, no temp. No idea if it's COVID or a cold!

Testing and contact tracing gives public health information.
You can look at patterns of behaviour, disease spread and clusters and base your laws and policies on this.
For example if you see spikes in infection among elderly people who have home helps in you can prioritise training and PPE for home helps.

Yes I agree. We would have a much richer picture with a bigger testing programme.

@Lansinohohoh I thought you were going to say your neighbour had the call on speaker and you could her thousands of different voices

I'm really hoping for widespread home testing to be available soon, because once I know I have had it and have my immunity, I'll be able to visit and help my vulnerable family again!

That's the other thing - I thought we didn't know yet whether someone who's had the virus is then immune from catching it again.

And I see some of the rationale behind testing, but is testing 66 million people really feasible?

I thought there had been cases where someone had tested positive, recovered and tested positive again later?

6529 new cases and 552 new deaths in Spain - from Worldometer today. The source linked is in Spanish so I can’t read to see if there are any more regions to come, but if these are the complete figures for today while they are terrible, they do seem somewhat better than yesterday. I hope so anyway. Does anyone know more?

I'm really hoping for widespread home testing to be available soon, because once I know I have had it and have my immunity, I'll be able to visit and help my vulnerable family again!

I'm not sure we can because we could still carry the virus on our clothes etc...

Yes, how would that work?

@Honeywort I live in Spain, the figures are still climbing. The last 24 hours saw the biggest rise yet: 832 deaths a total now of 5690 deaths.
From El Pais:
El incremento de fallecidos en España es del 17,1% respecto al viernes y la pendiente de la curva se suaviza algo, lo que según los expertos es un pequeño paso hacia la esperanza. Lo que ocurre es que el aplanamiento está siendo muy lento (18,8% el viernes, 19,1% el jueves…) y cada día que pasa España se acerca más a sumar un millar de muertes al día, algo que ni siquiera ha alcanzado Italia.
English:
The increase in death in Spain is 17.1% compared to Friday and the curve has softened slightly, which gives experts some hope. What s happening though is that the falttening is very slow (18.8% on Friday, 19.1% on Thursday) and each day Spain draws closer to a 1000-deaths a day total, something not even Italy has reached yet.
So, the deaths are still rising, but by slightly smaller increments each day, but still increments.

The article is here elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-28/nuevo-record-de-fallecidos-de-coronavirus-en-un-dia-en-espana-832-en-las-ultimas-24-horas.html

Thank you Bird

(Brief light relief: )

Numbers coming through now. Another 260 deaths, taking us to over 1000.

I'll do the update post with case figures when I have them.

Just seen the horrific figures for today.

Does anyone have any new graphs showing our comparison to other countries?

@birdandSparrow thank you for explaining. I’m so sorry it’s not better news yet.

I've posted an image upthread namechangemania

I just saw that @Barracker

Has, anyone a graph of where that put us now in our doubling rates etc?

That feels like a big jump today.

Oh fuck, here it comes

Am thinking of all those frontline NHS workers right now.

@Barracker where do you get the figures?