Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

There is a regional map. I will dig it out...

Actually, the map is rubbish

www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae

Here’s a region list: www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae

www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-60-trusts-report-fatality/7027212.article

This map is better, it’s by NHS trust.

I can't for the life of me understand why the lockdown in Italy appears to be having no effect. Unless people are secretly flouting it?

I don't think the view from Italy is that it is having no effect. The peak isn't expected until the stat of April. Lombardia seems to be showing signs of a slowdown: today it reported 465 non-ICU recoveries versus 655 yesterday and a drop in a&e admissions at every hospital in the region (some areas a slight drop, some 30%).

Some people are still flouting the lockdown, the vast majority are taking it seriously. Fines are high, everything is closed but until this week lots of people were still going to work in non-essential jobs (e.g. in the manufacturing sector) - though lots of companies had chosen to shut.

Health care professionals are around 14% of cases in Italy and Spain.

Lockdown doesn’t mean the virus has no one to infect, sadly.
So worried about NHS staff.

@FATEdestiny
Italy overall has never reached capacity, but the Italian situation is skewed by the fact it is/was highly geographically concentrated in some northern regions and especially Lombardia. ICU patients (covid-19 and not) have been moved to other regions and this week to Germany too, but that is extremely high risk, one died in transit this week. Capacity is also rising constantly as new ventilators arrive from China etc, new wards are being built, medics are being sent from other areas (and arriving from Cuba, Russia etc), it's far from static. I think the differing geography of outbreaks makes a direct comparison with the UK, where cases seem more spread out, very difficult.

The FT has some very detailed graphs. Most graphs comparing deaths between countries start from "days since tenth death" for a more accurate comparison. By this measure, it seems we started off accelerating even faster than Italy, (see the steepness of our curve) but over the last few days are closer to their rate of acceleration.

www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Thanks @LeeMiller.

Does everyone think the UK will peak in two to three weeks time in the UK? That's what the expert from Imperial was saying yesterday. At least once we've peaked it will feel like there's possibly some sort of end date in sight. At the moment things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

Interesting thread

Two more giant temporary hospitals have been announced for mid -April.

They must be expecting numbers to climb a heck of a lot in the coming weeks if if the peak is expected not long after 😢

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52070611

This link leads to confirmed cases listed by local authority and also has the total deaths broken down into England/Scotland/Wales/NI (someone asked for that upthread)

www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

UK has more dead at this stage than any country except Spain & Italy

I can't for the life of me understand why the lockdown in Italy appears to be having no effect

The incubation period is much longer than the UK 'experts' acknowledge. People who are dying now got symptomatic 5-10 days ago and caught the infection 10+ days before that
We won't see a proper dip till April

England
12,288 Cases
679 Deaths

Scotland
1,059 Cases
33 Deaths

Wales
921 Cases
34 Deaths

N. Ireland
275 Cases
13 Deaths

I dont think its just the incubation period I think the time from infection to dying can be 2-3 weeks so those dying now would be infected around a month ago.

The incubation period is much longer than the UK 'experts' acknowledge. People who are dying now got symptomatic 5-10 days ago and caught the infection 10+ days before that

I thought the average time between catching the virus and showing symptoms was five days?

It is. Why on earth would the UK MOs lie about the incubation period?!

Basically each "cycle" is 15 days. Incubation = 5 days then 5-7 days of symptoms before seeking medical help so in this country getting a test. On average people get admitted on day 8-10 of illness (evidence is it's later in lock down) then up to 3 days for the results. So "new" cases are 10-12 days old, 14-17 days since catching it. It then takes 8-10 days to die so deaths are a month old as others said.

The incubation period is 5 days on average, but the range is something like 2-14 days.

Time from symptom emergence to hospitalisation (if hospitalisation is required) is typically 5 days.

I think even later for hospitalisation

One thing I'm curious about - much of the (anecdotal) stuff I'm reading suggests the survival rate of those admitted to intensive care is very, very low.

The modelling I have looked at, on the other hand, applies a death rate of 50% to ICU patients.

My questions:

1. Does anyone have any good data or insight into the average mortality rate for patients who are critically ill (i.e. admitted to ICU)?

1. If the mortality rate for ICU patients is as bad as I think it might be (big assumption, and I'm assuming I'm wrong), then what is the point of governments sourcing so many ventilators, if the rate of survival in ICU is so low? The only argument I can think of is to buy time for some improved treatment regimen to show up.

So it would go something like this (on average) - am I right?

1st March: catch the virus
6th March: first symptoms appear
11th March: medical help sought if needed
14th March: admitted to hospital
17th March: test results come back
25th-27th March: death

Such an interesting thread!

I'm in NZ and we are in almost complete shutdown two days after the first confirmed community transmission case in an attempt to eradicate it. Only supermarkets and other essential businesses operating. No takeaway's or food delivery, no butchers, no fruit and veg stores. We are only allowed out around our neighbourhood for fresh air.

It's only lockdown day 3 today so our numbers are still climbing.

Thought maybe you might be interested in numbers with an extremely strict lockdown that's not China.

Currently we are at 368 infected with 0 deaths

If you're allowed out for a walk I don't think it's an extremely strict lockdown.

@Dissimilitude I thought with proper care, 80% of those on ventilators survive this virus.