Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

What an utter tragedy this is.

I wonder if the slight drop and then subsequent uptick in Italy's case numbers shows the impact of the Northern lockdown but then a few days later the impact of people having gone from the Northern red zone to other areas.

It is very clear to me that we locked down far too late and that there's going to be an enormous number of deaths in the UK.

So it could be that we are going to follow Italy's trajectory now, just a bit behind the curve?

IMO we will have a slower trajectory than Italy to begin with as our cases were more spread out and so won't overwhelm hospitals as quickly as the Italian red zone in the North.

However, in a few weeks ours will start to gain pace rapidly as hospitals in multiple areas are overwhelmed because we locked down later and less strictly (I can still hear a lot of traffic as I type this).

That being said ICL's Neil Ferguson seems to think we won't breach NHS surge capacity because of the interventions in place. Seems optimistic to me but then he's an epidemiologist and I'm now unemployed so...

Livin, I don’t think it was simplistic, just think we don’t have enough data 😔

Imperial don’t think we are following Italy, they think we are more following China’s trajectory, if there is any country similar, it’s China.

A high proportion of the deaths are still happening in Lombardy, if I heard correctly. I've heard that people are staying on ventilators for extended periods of time. It makes me wonder if many of the recent deaths are from some of the much earlier cases after several weeks on ventilation. The length of time from diagnosing a case to closing it in either recovery or death seems to be very long.

But I was hoping Italy would follow the pattern from China, where two weeks of lockdown turned the corner. I think the major difference now is about the efforts to track cases and trace contacts and aggressively isolate them.
China understood that intra-household transmission was huge, and people were removed quickly from their households. A wholly different strategy.

This contact tracing and isolation approach isn't happening in Europe. Lockdown alone doesn't seem to be enough, yet.

Italy's numbers are devastating today.
They aren't turning the corner.

At the governor's press conference Lombardia today reported a slight fall in the number of new cases and recoveries. They are now testing cases with one symptom not two which will affect case numbers as well, and specified at today's press conference that more tests have been carried out in the past two days.

I wondered that barracker, the New York mayor said they had people on ventilators for twenty to twenty five days.

But Italy has nearly six thousand new cases, but I don’t know if that’s due to extensive community testing or because people aren’t complying with lock down and still visiting friends and family and it’s spreading. Arguably it is likely those people caught it since lock down.

Which would mean lock down isn’t working.

Lee, sorry cross posted

Agree, but as symptoms show from four to eleven days then it’s arguable those people caught it since lock down. Even taking into account how long you can have symptoms for, it would seem the vast majority of the new cases are since lock down.

In terms of people saying we'd turned a corner...realistically absolute best case is a peak in 2-3 weeks from Weds when people started to take things vaguely more seriously. That is 8th-15th April.

If deaths are doubling every 2.5 days at the moment then it would mean the following predictions (showing impact of doubling every 2.5 days - I've used dates 5 days apart which means doubling twice).

Today: 181
1st April: 724
6th April: 2896
11th April: 11,584
16th April: 46,336

I'm not sure about what I'm about to say next but I presume we then see the downward slope of the bell curve and if it took c. 46k deaths to peak, it will take c. 46k deaths to get back to zero per day so that would be 92,000 deaths.

But we know this won't end until possibly Spring 2021 so there would be other, smaller waves as lockdown is relaxed and then tightened again.

Those are my thoughts anyway...

Imperial don’t think we are following Italy, they think we are more following China’s trajectory, if there is any country similar, it’s China.

On what basis?

China had very strict lockdowns. I'm sitting here typing while listening to lots of traffic - people are still have BBQs and parties, loads of non-essential workers going about their daily lives.

Agreed Bluntness100 - but sadly unsurprising as when lockdown first occured it was much 'lighter' - bars still open in the day, factories working etc (not to mention all the people who will have caught it from members of their own household and in hospital).

Agreed Bluntness100 - but sadly unsurprising as when lockdown first occured it was much 'lighter' - bars still open in the day, factories working etc (not to mention all the people who will have caught it from members of their own household and in hospital). And it's still a lighter lockdown than say, Spain..where deaths are still climbing 2 weeks into a much stricter lockdown than the UK (No schools open AT ALL for instance, no exercising)

Italy records 969 new coronavirus deaths, its highest daily figure, bringing the total virus-related deaths in the country to 9,134

loads of non-essential workers going about their daily lives.

V much doubt anyone is truly going about their daily lives now, whether they are still at work or not. It isn't possible to physically do even if you wanted to.

Our growth rate is much lower than Italy's

Our land mass might be small but we have a huge population.

Yes - the perfect combination for a virus to spread like wildfire.

The larger number of multi-generational households mean that households are larger on average - the virus will spread throughout the household regardless of the lockdown.

A poster on another thread was saying that the number of multi-generational households in the UK and Italy was roughly the same at around a million each - I'm not sure if it was accurate or not as I can't remember where they got the figures from now.

Like others have said, I can't for the life of me understand why the lockdown in Italy appears to be having no effect. Unless people are secretly flouting it?

Have Italy surpassed their critical care capacity?

Once a country crosses that capacity, then death rates will accelerate due to a lack of ventilators.

I don't know how you can find out what critical care capacity is. What is the UK's?

I like those graphics crsacre. Where are they from (So I can follow the website)?

Thanks! I've just made my own graphs from the data in
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

V much doubt anyone is truly going about their daily lives now, whether they are still at work or not. It isn't possible to physically do even if you wanted to.

Well that's not true. My Grandma is in her 70s with COPD and on the 'should be shielded for 12 weeks' list and is now shitting herself because she had coffee at her neighbours house as usual this week who proceeded to cough on her and lo and behold is diagnosed with CV as of today.

Plus lots of posts on here and Facebook about people having BBQs with their friends round, parties, etc.

Lots of people who work in manufacturing still being told to go into work.

@crsacre - doesn't your second graph show we're sort of tracking along with Italy?? (Please tell me it doesn't say that)

Is there a breakdown of UK figures by county? Or at least by region.

TBH, I was hoping that there would be a map somewhere showing where every UK case is, but I'll manage with counties!

@Jux is this any good?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-are-in-your-area

updated daily.