Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

I haven't seen any decent figures on ICU mortality, but have seen various anecdotal reports about extremely low survival rates - with ICUs celebrating individual patients as the rare exceptions who make it off the ventilator.

Different definitions of an what constitutes critical care obviously complicate things, cross-country.

But here's one example of an early look at this from China... www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30110-7/fulltext

Small numbers, but not great...

"29 (56%) of 52 patients were given non-invasive ventilation at ICU admission, of whom 22 (76%) required further orotracheal intubation and invasive mechanical ventilation. The ICU mortality rate among those who required non-invasive ventilation was 23 (79%) of 29 and among those who required invasive mechanical ventilation was 19 (86%) of 22.2"

But I don't know - hence the question!

uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-ethics-speci/special-report-all-is-well-in-italy-triage-and-lies-for-virus-patients-idUKKBN2133KG

"Marco Resta, deputy head of Policlinico San Donato’s Intensive Care Unit.

...

says that 50% of those with COVID-19 who are accepted into intensive care units in Italy are dying, compared with a usual mortality rate of 12% to 16% in such units nationwide."

That was very early on when they did not understand what they were dealing with. And it tends to be the very oldest who are first admitted to ICU when the pandemic hits. They will be far less likely to recover. Look at WHO figures. From memory 4 out of 5 on ventilators survive.

If you have a handy link for the WHO figures you reference, could you post? Ta!

Good article in The Lancet just published

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext

Does the government building these nightingale hospitals not suggest they think the numbers are going to increase massively?

We are only behind the US in doubling/tripling time & growth % (over last 3 days).

www.covidgraph.com/p/coronavirus.html#growth

Found a report on the first 775 UK critical care cases via a doctor’s twitter: www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b

I think this might be where the info in the Sky news article (the one with the BMI stuff) came from.

Most of the people who have been admitted are still there, if the small number of cases that are ‘resolved’ it’s almost 50/50

Can’t glean much from that because they are the shorter ICU stays, and it looks like a short stay is atypical:

The longer a patient is on a ventilator, the harder it is to get them back off it. This doesn't look good, huge amounts of resources are being used for people who are unlikely to recover.
No visitors allowed in the hospital, no opportunity to sensitively discuss consent for withdrawal of mechanical support.

Must be really hard on the staff. This says the usual 1-1 care in ICU has been temporarily changed to 1-6.

www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-intensive-care-staffing-ratios-dramatically-diluted/7027214.article

HSJ understands acute trusts in London have been told to base their staffing models for ICU on having one critical care nurse for every six patients, supported by two non-specialist nurses and two healthcare assistants.

Under guidance from the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine which applies at normal times, intensive care (also known as level three critical care) “requires a registered nurse/patient ratio of a minimum 1:1”

evidence is it's later in lock down

Can you link to this? My theory is lock down lowers viral load but eventually the immune systems is defeated. Also people may seek help later.

Place marking

Anecdotal but said by professor on intensive care on the webinar from Royal College of physians last night

Actually no he had a graph will try tp find it. Also from the accounts of Bergamo in the NYT.

events.rcpe.ac.uk/online-evening-update-covid-19-0

‘We Take the Dead From Morning Till Night’ nyti.ms/3dzOuqf

Gosh, that NYT article is heartbreaking.

Does the government building these nightingale hospitals not suggest they think the numbers are going to increase massively?

Well yes, that’s the whole discussion, we are not at the peak yet. That is next weekend likely. So numbers escalate till then, then if they start to drop off, they are still high but declining daily, it’s not a case of we’ve reached the peak now. Or it stops once you do.

kabalarian the data on doubling / tripling you linked to seems to be data for diagnosed cases, not deaths. UK data on cases is largely insignificant due to lack of testing, so cannot be compared.

Well yes, that’s the whole discussion, we are not at the peak yet. That is next weekend likely. So numbers escalate till then, then if they start to drop off

The sooner we reach the peak the sooner this nightmare will be over. But I think it’s more likely to be Easter weekend or the weekend just after isn’t it? The expert from Imperial College said a couple of days ago that it’s two to three weeks away.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111

Interesting article on stats from the bbc

N/c as this is outing.

My toddler fractured his leg yesterday (the tiniest of fractures, only needs two week cast) and poor Dh had to take him into a and e.

We've all been so good for over a week now the horror of going near the place sent Dh into a white sweat.

However, they were incredibly quiet luckily, the nurses joked that this was exciting as they'd done nothing all day. The a and e dept has been completely reorganised to channel cases v other issues.

They also told him they were expecting the peak to be mid May. When I've been tracking cases locally, my area has the lowest rate of infection ratio so it's very possible each area is going to be different. This will make blanket measures difficult to issue to the whole country.

Other fun fact while I'm in disguise, a neighbour is apparently in charge of working on all THE stats for the whole thing, after being switched from ofsted. I think he began about 10 days ago. I have wondered if something he's worked on is why they switched to 5-5pm. Last Friday he had a telephone call with 3000 people .

Yes, it’s the weekend of the sixth they are predicting, but obvs that can change, I guess though they have the data of how many many Patients in icu, how long they’ve been there, condition of new cases etc, and when lock downs such as ours hit and tail down,

I think the next couple of weeks could be quite scarey in terms of rhe numbers as they escalate, hopefully not, but it’s likely. They key is going to be not to panic.

At the beginning, the forecasts were millions of deaths, that was revised to if we get under 20k we are doing well. It was revised again to about 6k. If that stat holds true, then we are going to see an increase over the next week, then when it starts decreasing, we will still see a high amount but on the decline, it doesn’t just stop on the 7th for example.

Hopefully we don’t see too much hysteria on here forecasting world ending scenarios.

Although we’d all love to have hit the peak already and to see this flattening and declining now. 😔

Really interesting thread, thanks.

And from that bbc article, you could argue that areas that got cases more quickly eg the south and London are following the left hand route, areas that had few or no cases later on and so measures were taken at an earlier stage are following the right hand route.