Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

@LivinLaVidaLoki it never seems updates has been 142 for a couple of days, but then if patients are home after being confirmed they might not update to say they have recovered

Italy was 1266 at the same point two weeks ago, so we’re still not on as steep a trajectory as them - no idea why various journalists are saying we are

Because it makes a better headline ...?

Nobody pretends this isn't serious, but the obsession with chasing bad news and the competition for the most dramatic article hardly helps anyone

@Utterlybutterly8 Same!

It's still 186 families with horrible news but it's less horrendous then expected if you check off the numbers each day in comparison to Italy.

than

Worldometer has breakdowns by country

Does anyone know what Ireland's death rate is like compared to the UK, as they closed schools and went into lockdown before us?

Could it not be roughly calculated using current cases today, minus current cases yesterday, minus deaths? I'm probably completely wrong (in fact I'm sure I'm wrong).

We are 7th worst in the world for deaths. We are a very small country.

My thought process being if they arent a current case and they haven't died then logic says they have recovered?

Worldmeter has recovered cases. The rest are still ill.

We are a very small country. By population UK is 21st in the world, 3rd in Europe (worldometer includes Russia in Europe).

Our land mass might be small but we have a huge population.

Ok fair enough. Still a lot of people who have died.

Does anyone know what Ireland's death rate is like compared to the UK, as they closed schools and went into lockdown before us?

I don't think you can compare Ireland to the UK (or England at least) can you? The population density is far less anywhere outside of the main cities, I just don't think it would spread as quickly there anyway.

@alloutoffucks
That worldometer figure has been the same for at least this week.

Italy was 1266 at the same point two weeks ago, so we’re still not on as steep a trajectory as them

181 is huge jump though for us.

Looking at the numbers at a glance, once italy got going on the death rate (relatively a few days before us, but 2 weeks ago if you see what I mean) the daily deaths was looking to be just under or just over 200.

So it could be that we are going to follow Italy's trajectory now, just a bit behind the curve?

It's still a pandemic 🤷🏻‍♀️

I don't think anyone is disputing that goldpartyhat

Italy's numbers are devastating today.
They aren't turning the corner.
14% of cases are frontline health carers.
919 cases, in the last day.
Now a total 9,134 deaths.
It's only 5 weeks since their first death.

So sorry, that should have been 919 deaths

I’m not sure it’s right to say if they aren’t listed as recovered on worldometer, those numbers aren’t being updated.

From what I understand they need to test three times, to confirm recovery, it’s about false positives, so they won’t be focusing on it right now, for understandable reasons. They want people out to free up hospitals and not bringing them back for testing again, and three times.

I don’t think there is enough data to work it out to be honest. Because they aren’t closing them out for recovery, just escalating it daily with new cases and I assume subtracting deaths, and any limited recovery testing they do,.

Italy is shocking, I can’t remotely understand what’s going on there. Other than the lock down cannot be being complied with.

Those Italy figures are terrifying.

The deaths of frontline medics is a dreadful statistic to get one's head around.

I think Italy is a perfect storm.

You had a long running, silent outbreak that only exploded into view relatively late.

You have an older demographic in Italy, plus more multi-generational living. So there is likely more inter-generational spread. Some cultural factors are probably exacerbating matters (e.g. more personal contact).

Lastly, the way the government did the lockdown was a factor. The poorly-enforced partial lockdown likely "seeded" much of the rest of Italy from infections from Lombardy.

Then, even when the lockdown was enforced, the larger number of multi-generational households mean that households are larger on average - the virus will spread throughout the household regardless of the lockdown.

I’d like to see how the UK numbers stack up against the imperial London study, are we doing better or worse than their estimates?

(Obviously any death is dreadful and so sad)

Thank you Bluntness I thought I was being over simplistic.