Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

Death rates are the best comparison between countries, there's such wide variation between testing strategies no meaningful comparison can be made there without heavy caveating.

That US death rate is partial. They'll have 200-300 today once all the states release their figures.

Scrap that.

Just looked in more detail at us figures. 268 died yesterday. I don't know/what I was looking at in the last table.

Numbers ramping up significantly now. Scary shit this

Almost 3000! That's grim.

I don't think any nation should get it in the neck for high infection rate as such because I think it's too subjective depending on the volume of testing being done, testing criteria, and also given it can spread with no symptoms, so it's impossible for any nation to know the true number. I would expect most confirmed cases are not a true representation of actual infection rate.

I should add that if you click on the US page you can see which states have reported so far today. New York, which is accounting for around a third of the deaths, has not reported yet.

That's certainly not the full figure for the US. That will come later in the day.

I guess nobody will be arguing today then that we have already reached the peak in the UK and the few days of lock down have helped us turn the corner?

Someone will try to argue it. There's a ton of motivated reasoning going on out there.

FATEdestiny - yes, USA going up as state figures come in I guess. 22 now.

Have been reading about The Netherlands and Sweden - both countries still practising social distancing. Sweden's figures are moving up, but The Netherlands are high.

Last column - deaths per 1m population is a bit stark.

alloutoffucks - I don't think anyone thought peak would be much before Easter.

Sorry - meant the last column on the worldometer "listing".

@thatgingergirl I remember the comments from yesterday saying that it looked like we had turned a corner. In spite of people pointing out that the way the figures were being calculated meant that yesterdays figures would be artificially low.

alloutoffucks - yes, I shouldn't have used the word "anyone". I should have said "I"!

Shit that’s high, 181🙁

In the UK, 27 prisoners across 14 prisons have tested positive for covid-19. You'd think you'd be safe from coronavirus in prison wouldn't you?

I wonder how many people in the UK actually has or have had coronavirus?

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1243299145550647299?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1243299145550647299&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2020%2Fmar%2F27%2Fcoronavirus-live-news-update-us-infections-outnumber-china-uk-deaths-europe-global-cases-number-500000-latest-updates%3Fpage%3Dwith%253Ablock-5e7e14708f08af215f6fc874

NEW: Thursday 26 March update of coronavirus mortality trajectories tracker

• US death toll curve has passed China’s at same stage ⚠️
• UK on same track as Italy
• We‘re stripping this chart down to highlight major countries

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1243299145550647299?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1243299145550647299&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2020%2Fmar%2F27%2Fcoronavirus-live-news-update-us-infections-outnumber-china-uk-deaths-europe-global-cases-number-500000-latest-updates%3Fpage%3Dwith%253Ablock-5e7e14708f08af215f6fc874

I wonder how many people in the UK actually has or have had coronavirus?

TBH I don't think we'll ever know; we can't know, since anyone who's had it/has it now and is just feeling a bit horrible will be going nowhere near a test

On the positive side, at least it means the % of infections and deaths by population may be nowhere near as bad as headlines suggest

Remember the lag

It will be two weeks to a month before we start to see social distancing measures have any impact. Given incubation and time for deterioration and death.

So we can expect rising figures for the next few weeks, as predicted. Hopefully by mid April figures will start to flatten.

@BirdandSparrow that is really interesting because it shows Spain locked down way before Italy in terms of deaths yet it doesnt seem to have made much difference

Does anyone look at this and think China and Iran are definitely not revealing everything

759 fatalities in the UK now.

Italy was 1266 at the same point two weeks ago, so we’re still not on as steep a trajectory as them - no idea why various journalists are saying we are. But it’s still a big jump from yesterday nevertheless

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1243299607104421896/photo/1

and London seems to have slowed down as well

I really wish they would let us know how many have recovered

@WhatAboutMeeee I think they do somewhere, I'll see if I can find it.