Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

Interesting. So we could expect another 100 deaths or more tomorrow. I have noticed that deaths seem to go down over the weekend. This cannot be a coincidence.

I sincerely hope it does not accelerate and feel the best we can hope for is a steady rise to a peak in a months time. It feels like we have been doing 'this' for ages already- reducing contact. Even before the measures more people were starting to be careful a month ago, esp. those with health conditions.

Yes I think we've gone into a more gradual lockdown than other countries, small changes every few days. By Monday, a large proportion of us were already staying at home and had been for some time. Unfortunately there will always be a number who don't abide but I'm sure the CSO said they include this in the modelling. So I'm hopeful we will be slower to peak, which is what they are aiming for. Only time will tell though.

NY Times interactive model:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

US has now overtaken Italy, according to Reuters:

apple.news/A8miNourGROKBRyJ8FFyTCQ

Today's numbers include from 5pm on 24th to 5pm on 25th - a full 24hrs - and that was 115, the largest number in any 24 hour period yet in UK.

There’s no doubt we’re in for a tough few weeks ahead...

The deaths in the community are not currently being recorded as official COVID19 fatality stats according to this: www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/west-midlands-emerges-as-a-hotspot-for-coronavirus-deaths

That's worrying if they do not test or include people who have died in the community. I can understand there being a slight delay if they need to do tests post mortem but it's not clear if they are even doing that. They really need to change this or at least be clear on it. We need one of the journalists to ask this in the daily briefing.

barracker trying to see a positive in that we are far behind Italy at the same stage was absolutely not me trying to turn this into a pep rally (what a strange thing to take from what I said). Clearly the deaths are a tragedy and I am not trying to say otherwise.

This thread is excellent in terms of stating the facts and statistics, I'm finding it very useful and I'm glad you started it. Trying to stay hopeful in all of this shouldn't be a bad thing.

Tomorrow is another day. I hope we continue to track far behind Italy. Stay safe everyone.

raimbowpenguins precisely, thank you.

I check this thread every day, thank you for the figures.

Thanks for this thread, it's helping make sense of the numbers.

Same here, following this thread is helping me a lot.

Op you are doing a great job- this will be important from a historical perspective.

Would it be cheeky to ask if you could also give the mortality totals for the nations as well as the U.K. total ie Wales, NI and Scotland?

Great thread. Thank you.

Some interesting analysis here of who the critical cases are

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-first-analysis-reveals-trends-in-uks-critical-cases-11962457

Just to repeat again how the numbers are now calculated and in addition (if the quote below is correct) the time 14.00 UK time when the previous day’s figures will be published.
This is a quote from Politico EU daily email.
Quote
TALLY CLIMBING: The government continues to face questions about medical supplies this morning, after the latest figures showed the number of coronavirus deaths in the U.K. jumped by more than 100 in a day for the first time. The next figures will be published this afternoon at 2 p.m. NHS England decided this week to change the way it reports deaths. The daily mortality figures will now be for the 24-hour period before 5 p.m. the previous day
End quote.

That is really interesting LiveintheNow, thanks for sharing.
The male / female ratio is being seen in every country. For whatever reason, being female seems to have a significant protective effect against severe illness and death from the virus.

Some surprises there about what seems to be a risk, and how healthy in general patients actually are. The BMI data appears significant.

Every news report is always at pains to point out 'had underlying health conditions' and I'm wondering how much of a stretch this is to include relatively minor conditions that most of us would not consider significant.

It's probably worth breaking that analysis down into the key sections to keep a watchful eye on it.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-52047003

Two prisoners have died, two different prisons, taken to two different hospitals. Staff in the prison services are amongst confirmed cases.

This could be bad. U.K. prisons are overcrowded, lots of elderly inmates in the male estate.

I wonder if BMI will mean that numbers ultimately are not good in the UK, with obesity being a problem? I don't know how obesity rates compare to other countries like Italy and Spain?

What I've not seen in the obesity stats is a comparison of how many people are obese in the general population - shouldn't that be considered?

Absolutely, Scrimshaw. It's possible the findings simply reflect the national obesity demographic.

Here's the UK stats. I am no mathematician, statistician or anything, but will try and make a comparison.

Why aren’t they including deaths outside of hospital atm? Are they not tested?

All very rough and ready and I could be making huge errors here, so do take this with a very large pinch of salt. I added the England figures for all ages and got:

General population

34% Normal/Underweight
36% Overweight
29% Obese/Morbidly Obese

Coronavirus admissions

28% BMI < 25
32% BMI 25-30 (overweight)
40% BMI 30-40 (obese)

So there is a shift, but I also notice that BMI tends to increase with age, so that might also factor into it? And other possible correlations (poverty tends to increase BMI, put crudely) are also not accounted for.

I hugely welcome anyone correcting this hopelessly amateurish attempt!

In general people tend to think Italy, Spain, have better maybe 'mediterranean' diets than we have but wonder if that has changed in recent years.

I know diabetes is a risk with COVID though, and very high BMI is considered 'vulnerable' here.