Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

As an NHS worker, I'm following this with interest. I really hope we can flatten the peak.

I read the headlines as a warning to healthy young people, in the hope they realise how anyone can find themselves very unwell with the virus.

I’m pleased to see we are diverging with Italy, but our health system hasn’t been overwhelmed yet. Doctors on TV have been saying they expect to hit full capacity for ICU by the end of the coming weekend. That’s when things get scary, because more people will die at the disease’s natural end point, right now, most critically ill people are having that point artificially extended through ventilation.
Can we find out when Italy reached that point? Spain?

Been watching Andrew Cuomo’s press conferences. New York is in deep shit (if he gets through this I reckon he’ll be president in 2024). New Orleans isn’t looking good either.

@FATEdestiny your spreadsheet is v helpful (and encouraging!), thanks for sharing

I think people don't realise that anyone can be temporarily immunosuppressed, e.g. after a bout of flu. So it's possible that people with no existing health issues, diagnosed or not, can be more vulnerable than at first appearance.

But of course, there will be individual responses to viruses and even some healthy individuals will become more ill than others.

My DM lives in NY and is in complete denial. She seems to thinks schools should be open because in NYC no one will keep kids in. She thinks the basketball courts shouldn't have been closed. She is 80 and pops out about 4 times a day for sundries. No police anywhere and she predicts riots if they tell New Yorkers what to do!

The strict approach of Cuomo doesn't seem to be the reality of life in NYC.

soberfabulous
113 people died in 24 hours.
I don't see this as "hugely positive". Those are not words I would ever choose.
I do hope we are diverging from Italy.
I know enough not to jump to conclusions too early.
I very much hope any gain of time we might see in our tracking can be used for creating increased ventilator and bed capacity.

But I find the tone of "why aren't you all celebrating, you misery guts, because the exponential acceleration in deaths we're still seeing is slightly less rapid than Italy. You were all such doommongers and I'm so right" is crass.

113 people just died. We're still accelerating. More will die tomorrow. Forgive me if I'm not throwing a party yet.

There a million threads for positivity and denial and I'm on some of them when I don't feel like like focussing on the numbers.

But please let this thread continue its balance of people who follow, analyse and question the stats, not turn it into a forced pep rally for posters to rictus grin to prove they aren't worried.

Stressed people can be immunisupressed.

Maybe best to keep it factual and less emotional, the other threads are full enough of that. It might take longer for a fuller picture to emerge, maybe another week would be more telling.

looks encouraging though,

Isn't 113 the biggest daily rise so far? So even though not exactly following Italy's curve, is still exponential growth? I'm not optimistic that the UK isn't going to follow a similar curve to Italy and Spain.

I've just looked at the stats for Italy Spain and Uk and it seems the %who have died are:
Italy - 10.2%
Spain - 7.4%
Uk - 5%

Recovered:
Italy - 13%
Spain - 12.5%
Uk - 1.2%

Active cases
Italy - 77%
Spain- 80%
Uk- 94%

So unless we are very lucky in the UK we're going to see a significant increase in deaths very soon. Along with a rise in new cases.

Source was Worldometers.com

Italy death rate of 10% is scary compared to the 3 to 4% we were initially told.

A fascinating thread.
However let us hope tomorrow’s number of deaths is not higher,

No one is forcing anyone to celebrate. No one is being miserable. Why do threads like these ALWAYS descend into people arguing about the way other people see things? So frustrating seeing people argue online over stuff at a time like this.

I think some of the tension I have seen on other threads is because people feel out of control and the numbers feel more certain. It’s a stress reaction.

I can understand that, ChazsBrilliantAttitude, and I don’t want to add to it. It just seems to me that the crass thing is getting at each other and criticising people at such a horrible time. We don’t need any more negativity.

With that said I won’t add to it any further! And will keep watching this thread to hopefully get some balanced and factual information.

Isn't 113 the biggest daily rise so far?

It is. Something else I noticed is it's taken 5-6 days to double. I recall we were expecting numbers to double every 2-3 days (or did I just make that up??). So that's another positive.

I dont think Worldometers has enough information now to be accurate -specifically in terms of testing for those who have it and those who have recovered.

UK for example its only the hospital cases that are being tested both for it and presumably for recovery.

Ultimately I think the death rate is lower.

However reassuring stats are they are only as good as the data set you have provided and I dont think Worldometers has enough anymore

if you really want plots, go to

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-covid-19-cases-by-country

looks like italy & germany are flattening but not UK or USA

Joining this thread as I'm 🤦🏼‍♀️🤦🏼‍♀️🤦🏼‍♀️ on the other one... people adding yesterday and today by 2 thinking this 'daily average' shows things are improving. I'm interested in accurate stats and facts, not bad maths scrawled on the back of a fag packet.

Has anyone downloaded the app from Kings College??

www.guysandstthomasbrc.nihr.ac.uk/2020/03/25/c-19-app-launched-to-track-the-symptoms-of-coronavirus/

Researchers from King's College London, who launched the Covid Symptom Tracker, say ten per cent of the 650,000 people who signed up to the app in the first 24 hours showed signs of the virus.

covid.joinzoe.com/

I’m confused, the latest figures come with a headline “biggest ever rise in death rates, but the world com graph (attached) seems to show the peak flattening out, not accelerating

Could this be explained by this quote from yesterday

"Meanwhile, officials said 463 people who tested positive for coronavirus had died as of 9am on Wednesday. It added that the latest figures do not cover a full 24-hour period with some media outlets reporting a total of 465 fatalities."

So if yesterday’s figure was less than 24 hours, is today’s fir more that 24?.

Department of health explain the reporting changes on their Twitter feed (see pics)

The update yesterday only included deaths from 9am to 5pm on 24th March (usually it is 9am to 9am next day). This is because going forwards they want to report 5pm to 5pm.

Today's numbers include from 5pm on 24th to 5pm on 25th - a full 24hrs - and that was 115, the largest number in any 24 hour period yet in UK.

Today's numbers include from 5pm on 24th to 5pm on 25th - a full 24hrs - and that was 115, the largest number in any 24 hour period yet in UK. I don't see how that is positive news.

That is worrying.

I can't believe how many people I've seen on my fb now who appear to have it in the last few days.

I don't think anyone means that 115 deaths in itself is positive. I think the positive suggestion is it's starting to look like we are not escalating as quickly as Italy, and if we can avoid an Italy situation then more lives will be saved. And surely that is positive and something we would all hope for.