Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

BBC news reported 115 today

@peridito that is true it enables COVID 19 patients to be treated in all hospitals rather than specialist hosiptals

578 seems a fairly accurate prediction of where we should be after yesterday

What was Italy's on the 12th March? Here's previous tracking numbers...

Italy was 1016 on 12th March

But the 465 isn't correct because that was only a portion of the day

Looks like our trajectory is diverging from Italy’s a bit now.

Highlight indicates when we started deviating from Italy's rate

We appear to have stretched out to more like 16 days behind Italy now.

Sorry, missed a page or two and didn't see this had been updated.

Found it:

Italy March 12th: 1016

This puts us still significantly behind them. No one seems open to seeing this as a huge positive?

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Thursday MARCH 26th

Total UK cases: 11,658
New UK cases: 2129
Total UK Deaths: 578
New UK Deaths: 113

A big positive @soberfabulous!!

@FATEdestiny that’s interesting. When was the advice to self isolate for 7 days for coughs/fevers? I’m sure it was around 13/03 as that was dd’s last day at preschool.

I hope that did make a small difference although I suspect the ‘last hurrah’ period will have done some damage.

Just to check, are the comparisons of where we are/where Italy was on certain dates affected by this change in reporting times? Sorry if this is a stupid question.

Cornettoninja, bear in mind these are deaths, rather than infection rates. So the people in these figures have

• been infected
• incubated the virus
• shown symptoms
• gone into hospital (must have done, for test)
• sadly died.

I think I read somewhere that infection to death is estimated at 18 days. But that's going to vary massively. One would imagine some will die within days/of symptoms, others could be on a ventilator for 3 weeks or whatever.

But on average, these deaths will have been infected around the beginning of March.

Even if there was a small loss from yesterday and added it to today that means we are actually in a better position..

I am very suspicious about what is going on with the numbers

• there was a delay in reporting and they are changing the process

• these are apparently the deaths of hospitalised patients. But it is hard to get admitted to hospital, there are people dying in the community.

• there is also a significant issue around co-morbidity and whether CV is listed as the main cause of death or even as a cause of death

• the crazy policy of not testing people with symptoms is making the data yet more unreliable

Not that I would want to worry people, just stay inside and keep safe.

No one seems open to seeing this as a huge positive?

I think it's definitely a big positive. The last five days suggest that for now at least, we're not on the frighteningly steep trajectory that Italy has been following.

You’re right @FATEdestiny, there are a lot of variables I’m not considering and I thought after I posted that I wasn’t taking into consideration the numbers of newly diagnosed.

I find statistics really interesting When they’re set out for me but I clearly have no aptitude for them!

The last five days suggest that for now at least, we're not on the frighteningly steep trajectory that Italy has been following. I don't know if it's clear enough to say that with any certainty. Hopefully yes.

Thank you for the figure tracking. This looks positive for the moment. I do hope it continues like this!

My DB was at Cheltenham and started showing symptoms today. SILs family have already come down with it and they've all been mixing.

I'm pleased to see some positivity and for it to be acknowledged. Everyone has seemed so sure we were going to follow Italy. The last few days show that we a long way behind them. Thankfully.

Great thread, thank you for starting it, will be following with interest. I'm a great believer in letting facts guide us. Goes without saying my heart breaks for anyone who looses a loved one.
It would be interesting to see, of those unfortunate deaths, how many had underlying health conditions. I notice now the newspapers are reporting deaths of those with no underlying health conditions and I wonder if they are being sensationalist and found the very few cases in the land or if the disease has changed / been misunderstood.

I just want to say thank you for this well balanced thread, I've enjoyed reading it.