Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

no it's Kate McCann on twitter

Political Correspondent at Sky and former Chairman of the Press Gallery. Northerner. Cyclist. [email protected]

Reading more into the consent thing, it seems that families’ consent may be needed to allow for additional postmortem testing where patients weren’t tested for C19 prior to death. So it might actually lead to more accurate reporting?

I got this from the Twitter thread below that Nicholas Watt tweet linked above. Don’t know whether that’s true or not though.

Ohh OK X-post. So no change to methodology after all, just time? Makes sense tbh.

I struggle with twitter ( following threads ) but there were some posts about Covid being reclassified as a non notifiable disease .A comment was made that with deaths of notifiable didease no consent from relatives is required .

Whether this is true or not ,I don't know .

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID) in the UK

www.gov.uk/government/collections/wuhan-novel-coronavirus

makes sense Flora

Thanks for that LivinLaVidaLoki

Can you link the thread please?

I was on another thread about the numbers yesterday which turned very unpleasant. Posters who questioned the unlikely low count yesterday and offered viable challenges to the stats, were called ghouls and worse by posters who lacked understanding of the importance of having accurate information and maintaining confidence in the stats. Accusing them of 'wanting' higher deaths, and scorning them for not celebrating what looked like obviously unreliable yet low figures.

It's frustrating that people won't assume others are acting in good faith when they seek trustworthy, transparent data.

@Barracker it's this one

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3861236-Delay-in-todays-numbers?pg=23

this is where I found it on Twitter
twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1243198819283730439

but I don't know if that will take you to the correct place

Guardian are linking to this

According to the Times’ Chris Smyth, we may not get a UK figure for coronavirus deaths today.

Chris Smyth
✔
@Smyth_Chris
Death figures update: last night only 28 new fatalities recorded.

Alas this is not good news, it is because there are now so many deaths NHS using a 7.30am cut off instead of 1pm.

So govt looking at changing how they are reported 1/2

963
10:34 AM - Mar 26, 2020
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829 people are talking about this

Chris Smyth
✔
@Smyth_Chris
Replying to @Smyth_Chris
We may not get any death figures today, as they are looking at moving to publishing first thing in the morning.

Aim is to give more time to collate NHS data and inform families before ages and locations made public 2/2

Here is a screen shot

That makes more sense, depressing at it is, it doesn't make any sense for the number of UK deaths and cases to be dropping yet. I think there's a big bulge to come in the next few days.

@Barracker I read that thread, you are right, very unpleasant. This thread has kept me sane, because everyone is on the same page. Some people (including me) need the facts/figures/graphs etc. Because it helps people stay grounded and know where they stand.

In with the big (self employed) announcement, the BBC include this.

Death rate reaches 475.
Yesterday it was 465.
+10? Only 10?

@FATEdestiny is that not the addition of Scotland and Wales? I haven’t looked to see what they are yet, but they do that often.

@FATEdestiny, England figures haven't been released yet. It is currently showing as 477 on worldometer at the moment. They might not publish England until tomorrow, seemingly.

It does Fartintheloft, and I hoped this thread would be a simple data analysis and discussion thread serving that particular need. We all respond differently to a crisis. Some actively avoid any and all figures, others find knowledge preferable to ignorance. I don't judge others if they have no interest in tracking and understanding what we might likely expect. I don't judge people who want to pray, or be distracted, or ignore this entirely.
But I do think it's irresponsible to fling around accusations of ghoulishness at people who are keeping their eyes wide open. Anything that undermines confidence in factual information is a dangerous thing. And bullying those who are trying to keep things factual and reliable into silence helps noone.
We really need transparency and truth more than ever, even if what is revealed is difficult to see.

What we want to be true cannot blind us to what actually is true. Noone can prepare emotionally, mentally or practically for what we might face if we're determined to deny there's anything to face at all.

I take it as an absolute that everyone wants and hopes for this to be over as quickly as possible with as minimal harm as possible. It's ludicrous it even needs stating.

I'll post the daily stats as soon as England is published.

I keep seeing confusion over the UK numbers on Mumsnet but it seems to be the same every day. England adds their figures towards the end of the day but Scotland wales etc will add theirs sooner. It's the same each day. This is the numbers for the previous day. So yesterday's cases and deaths (Wednesday) will be added tonight but the rest of the UK will already be on

Spotted this graph on twitter and it looks very reassuring

Yes - Scotland (3), Northern Ireland (3) and Wales (6) have been published and are included in worldometer figures for UK today.

@Barracker Very well said!

Figures in:

As of 9am on 26 March 2020, a total of 104,866 people have been tested, of which 93,208 were confirmed negative and 11,658 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 25 March 2020, 578 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

I don't find it reassuring sadly. Is it because it's a logarithmic graph so it has that 'tapering off' curve shape? If you notice the numbers on the y axis, they don't go up in regular increments, 1,2,3,4. They are 5,50,500,5000. This gives it the curve that you are seeing, which looks to be getting less steep.
But it isn't.

The reality is that this is what our UK graph actually looks like without that logarithmic scale; it gets steeper and steeper :

The only difference between these two graphs is the scale on the y axis. They are the same dataset.

Apologies if you already knew all this, perhaps other readers don't though.

Those graphs are interesting. Are there any that show no of deaths per day on the y axis rather than total deaths? I’d be interested to see how that would look. Thank you for the discussion on this thread.

Oh I can see I can probably see the same effect on the other graph by looking at the steepness of the curve. Please ignore me, tired!

'The number of people who have died from coronavirus in the UK has risen to 578, as of 5pm on Thursday.

As of 9am this morning, 11,658 people had tested positive for the virus.'

No @Barracker I just meant reassuring that we weren't quite following the same rapid path of the worst hit countries

I've just had a breaking news alert to day death rate has jumped by more than 100 today but can't find any reports.