Worried about corona virus thread 27

[Michelleoftheresistance]

New Thread.

I will copy over all the links in a min.

@KenAdams please tell me you are being ironic?

That puts us 8th in the world for number of deaths 🙁

If 20,000 people really have it then the death rate is only about 0.15% and that’s good news. Who knows whether that’s true though.

I use the modelling calculator and it shows that there are 27918 cases in UK.

And that's only the people who are in hospital. How many are SI and therefore not counted?

I know we should be trying to stay calm and trusting that everything will be fine, but I am frightened. Not just for what is happening now, but for what comes after. What will our lives look like when this is all over? How long will it take to recover? And with Brexit still going on in the background (priorities, right?!).

DH and I are in a very precarious financial situation right now, but we cope. There are people who are significantly worse off than us who are not coping now, so what will happen to them? If families like us end up below the poverty line, what happens to those who are already there?

Shaun Lintern - 'BREAKING: 1,372 positive #coronavirus cases in UK. 35 patients have died.

Massive caveat...the UK is no longer testing every suspected case. So true positives will be far higher....meaning the rising number of deaths will look scary but is unlikely to reflect the true rate. '

ok that's my decision made - I'm not sending the kids into school anymore. Im adding extra wine onto the food order (yes I've got one coming tomorrow because i planned ahead, watched the situation and got organised) and im safeguarding my family. fuck you boris

“If you’re healthy, you and your family, it’s a great time to go out and go to a local restaurant, likely you can get in easy. Let’s not hurt the working people in this country...go to your local pub”

Fox News this morning.

We have had our possibly last hurrah with going out. I know some will be horrified but we went to Paultons Park. We are annual pass holders and I have never seen it so quiet. We did every ride in Peppa Pig world in 1.5 hours. Some twice!

I have to say the staff their were amazing. They were using dettol on all handrails after every ride. They were asking people in a queue (if there was one) to spread out etc....

We took the risk due to still having to work in a germ pool this week. We will have 18k students around and it seemed ridiculous to stay at home when at work all week. We did wear gloves at all times lol.

#Where’s Boris?
I think he needs to show face, explain his reasons for doing the things he is, show your scientific model that your following and explain how not testing many people any more is going to help here?
How can you fight a virus if you don’t know where it is?

35 x 800 is 28,000

Of course, that is assuming a 1% death rate. Which may or may not be the case.

If it is 2% then the true number of cases would be around 14,000. If it is 0.2% then the true number of cases would be 140,000. It is likely to be around 1% at the moment though, as the NHS is still operating within capacity.

Confirmed cases figure is now meaningless in terms of trying to figure out spread trajectory.

35 deaths is very alarming.

Can anyone remind me of the likely correlation of death figures in relation to likely actual cases including those who have symptoms but haven't been tested? Someone did it yesterday I think......

I thought people suffering from from the covid took quite long to die or recover and beds were occupied on average for 3 weeks.

So these people may have been deteriorating for All that time?

I'd be much happier with any numbers if more accurate testing was going on.

perhaps eejits like @Homkaismycat, who share any old nonsense they see on Facebook, ought to be banned from these discussions

Many of the people who have tested positive will die in the coming days and weeks.

Yes, and I guess we must not forget that these are apparently only those unwell enough to be admitted to hospital.

Their "stay at home until you feel like death" message is also awful. There's probably several people out of those 35 that could have been saved if they'd turned up to hospital earlier, but they probably turned up when they were basically on their last legs and it was too late to do anything.

It varies - I think the more ill the person is before infection (and some of the deaths have caught it in hospitals.) the quicker they likely to die from it.

@MacronsPensWiper I don’t think these can be cases who took a long time to die, given what the infection and ICU figures have been. There were only supposed to be 20 people in ICU with it yesterday, that would 14 of them had died? Seems more likely there have been some rapid declines.

Horrific jump in deaths. From 10 to 32 in just two days. At this rate we will oversee Italy by the end of the weekend

Matt Hancock confirmed on Marr that the Govt. thought there were 5,000 - 10,000 cases last week, and now the figure would have increased.

Dr. Hilary thought there was 100,000+ cases last week.

@jimmyhill So she/he made a mistake. They did share their source, so we knew how much weight to put on it. I'm sure they will check twice next time.

I assume Boris has his 🐍 meeting tomorrow? I think I recall somebody saying Monday and Wednesday?

You're freaking out about 35 deaths. You are aware the no. of dead is likely to reach 400k. Regardless of what we do. It's how fast we get there that determines how many more will die.

I feel like a lot of people are not being realistic right now about what to expect. You think if we shut the schools 400k people will not die or that anything other than a vaccine or "heard immunity" can stop us reaching that number? Massively unrealistic. The PM of a nation does not go on TV and say "a lot of you will lose loved ones" if 35 people are going to die. You better sober up guys. I fear for your mental states when this starts to hit home.

I'd be much happier with any numbers if more accurate testing was going on
There basically isnt any testing going on. The vast majority of people with symptoms are being told to stay at home and take paracetomol as far as I understand it.
Furthermore, the vast majority of active cases in the UK will have probably only picked up the virus in the past couple of week - so its far to early to talk about death rate, even if we had a clue about how many people actually have it which we don't.