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Omg. The next step in the strategy. And if we all stick together it may work

762 replies

Bool · 14/03/2020 22:03

Next step in UK strategy. Lock down all the over 70s (and other immunocompromised - kids / adults) for 4 months. Lock them down. Then make it illegal to close schools. That means we gain immunity to the virus as a population and keeps the beds open for the unusual cases that are not foreseen.

OP posts:
MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 18:06

I think so Stat but only remembered those two

StatisticallyChallenged · 15/03/2020 18:09

I think they're very optimistic tbh. The Chinese lockdowns were more drastic and lasted longer than these.

mathanxiety · 15/03/2020 18:12

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Sakura7 · 15/03/2020 18:14

I think Ireland have shut too early. They give April as opening date, as does Germany.

Ireland has not 'shut'. Schools have, and there are restrictions on mass gatherings. Shops are open and public transport is running. Companies are being urged to allow people work from home if at all possible. We are not in lockdown.

The Irish public are extremely supportive of the actions taken and feel far safer than if nothing had been done.

MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 18:15

Yes I’m sure.

I’m prepared for closure from April to Sept. The harsher measures will come in now.

Sakura7 · 15/03/2020 18:16

Do you want a tsunami or a series of big waves?

This is it in a nutshell.

MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 18:17

You can’t say when you open schools etc in April you’ll get the numbers shoot up again.

Flixsfoilball · 15/03/2020 18:18

It’s so odd that people are wanting total lockdown for everyone and the government isn’t doing enough - but when the proposal is for a partial lockdown of the most vulnerable in society then there are cries of ‘how will we make that work’. I don’t get it.

Total lockdown for everyone for a few weeks vs 1/3 of a year for some - I would prefer the first rather than a long drawn out isolation for people that may need to work etc themselves. They aren't just talking retired people but for example a number of the 3.5 million people that have been diagnosed with diabetes in this country will be of working age.

The psychological impact of being effectively locked up while everyone else carries on as normal for months at a time is horrendous.

Not to mention it is unworkable, because funnily enough this group of people live with their families etc. Surely you can't lock one person down for months and allow the rest of the household to carry on as normal, they'll just bring it home with them and infect the vulnerable person anyway? A total lockdown helps people actually comply

Bool · 15/03/2020 18:19

@Frouby omg can you lead us please! Well said!

OP posts:
StatisticallyChallenged · 15/03/2020 18:23

What does "a few weeks of total lockdown" actually look like?

And how many is a few? In any slightly larger family the virus could easily still be working it's way through everyone in say 3 weeks.

DoubleAction · 15/03/2020 18:26

If we have total lockdown now it would be for the same period that is being suggested for older people. Why would it be less?

Sakura7 · 15/03/2020 18:27

Just to be clear, nobody is claiming that the elderly and vulnerable shouldn't be protected. What many of us are saying is that the current UK strategy of chasing herd immunity does nothing to protect those people, it puts them at greater risk. Dr Michael Ryan of the WHO stated yesterday that governments need to act now, and that speed is more important than perfection.

Frouby · 15/03/2020 18:28

Yes I think Bojo and co are also using a bit of psychology on us. Let it get to the point we are begging to lock down, because we can see what's happening. Shut us down for a month in that schools and non essentials close, plus vulnerable folk stay safe.

A gradual reopening in April til it starts climbing again, then we ask for lock downs again, get them possibly over May spring bank again using school holidays as a bit of a buffer for the economy.

Reopen june then we only have to get to mid july before it's the long summer holidays.

On the herd immunity I am praying it is something similar to chicken pox in that you get it then the majority of people have immunity. There will be some who get it a second time, possibly with additional complications but I think most viruses leave immunity behind as a parting gift.

Not everyone will get it and obviously there will be further outbreaks until we get a vaccine but with each outbreak there are fewer people to infect so the outbreaks are less intense each time.

That's what I am hoping is the case anyway. Because if it's not we might as well shove the old and the vulnerable behind a wall in Scotland or Devon or Yorkshire and the rest of the country just carry on as long as we can until a vaccine is found.

We are in a pretty bad place worldwide. We need to keep the wheels turning somehow. The rest of Europe can call on each other to help. Obviously we won't be able to do that and we do have to keep as stable economically as we can for what's to come.

People will die. It's inevitable. We can only try and minimise the deaths and unfortunately someone who is 80, maybe has dementia or some other life limitations isn't going to be a priority over a fit 40 year old. But we all know that. But what theu are trying to do is make what choices come obvious ones. So not drown the system so much that it's a choice between a relatively fit 60 year old and the 40 year old.

Sakura7 · 15/03/2020 18:31

If we have total lockdown now it would be for the same period that is being suggested for older people. Why would it be less?

Because the virus will be allowed to spread uncontrolled through the population in a (misguided) effort to achieve herd immunity. 60% of the population need to be infected in order to achieve this, according to the government.

What other countries are doing is introducing social distancing measures to drastically slow the spread.

Allaboardthemagicbus2020 · 15/03/2020 18:31

One friend left hostel on London last night to fly to parents in Northern European country, other friend left few days ago to go to Spain.

I just don’t see how some of the European initiatives will work with this movement.

Sakura7 · 15/03/2020 18:36

I just don’t see how some of the European initiatives will work with this movement.

Because one they get there they will be encouraged to restrict their movements. Whereas in the UK it seems to be life as normal. There were marathons and half marathon happening in the UK today which is just barmy.

DoubleAction · 15/03/2020 18:38

All aboard, exactly no one is practicing the kind of total shutdown that would be required to achieve what you suggest Sakura. How can they with the essential workforce still out and about? That's not medical staff but maintenance, food, distribution....

Frouby · 15/03/2020 18:40

And then when most of the population has had it, the older and more vulnerable will start living normally again. This will mean some will get it unless they permanently isolate themselves but by this point the rest of us have had it, or most of us at least. Then the NHS can focus on their needs and as many as possible, certainly more than if we all locked down and came out together, will be saved by having more equipment, mor3 beds and more experience on treating it. Plus we will be nearer to a vaccine and may have anti virals to help.

It's shit and awful and sad and desperate.

My mum will be isolated and my auntie and I will miss them both very much but I would rather they didn't get it until everyone else has had it and then them be well afterwards. If I do see them I will isolate me, dh and the dcs for 10 days beforehand and sit in my mums garden with her staying 2 meters away. It will be very difficult for everyone but is so much safer.

nellodee · 15/03/2020 18:41

You do not need total lockdown, only around 3/4 of the population to be isolated.

nellodee · 15/03/2020 18:43

Forgot to attach the image. The third picture is a simulation of 75% of the population in lockdown. Essential workers can still go to work. This is not being unfair on the NHS. This is protecting them as much as the people staying inside.

Omg. The next step in the strategy. And if we all stick together it may work
nellodee · 15/03/2020 18:43

My second simulation made it even clearer...

Omg. The next step in the strategy. And if we all stick together it may work
nellodee · 15/03/2020 18:44

Here's the link to the simulator.

www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Sakura7 · 15/03/2020 18:45

nellodee Exactly. It's about limiting the opportunities the virus has to spread from person to person.

MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 18:45

Going back to the tsunami the majority of what is hitting Italy is 70 plus. And otherwise vulnerable.

Take those out of the equation and it is a smaller wave. That’s us - we are trying to take them out.

MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 18:48

Separate them 😂 not take them out obvs.