Omg. The next step in the strategy. And if we all stick together it may work

[Bool]

Next step in UK strategy. Lock down all the over 70s (and other immunocompromised - kids / adults) for 4 months. Lock them down. Then make it illegal to close schools. That means we gain immunity to the virus as a population and keeps the beds open for the unusual cases that are not foreseen.

Not everyone Maria.

I think a lot of the hype is ridiculous. The amount who've caught covid 19 and the percentage of whom have died, is a vastly different number. I'm not saying its not serious - I am saying the panic is a bit ott. Healthy youngish people are meant to recover from it no worse than a normal cold. People can't hide indoors for 4nbths hoping not to get it. Yes they'll be alive - and how will their MH be after 4 months cooped up? Bored, no human interaction or company, no walks, no experiences... You'd go mad! I saw a guy earlier who served me in a shop wearing medical gloves, mask and bloody apron. He looked like he was going to surgery in a minute, and he looked ridiculous in all honesty. If you're scared of catching it and you own a very customer facing business - then close your shop? Or just crack on with life.

The Scottish Chief medical Officer has said (today I think) that it is not self isolation that would be asked of over 70s, but social distancing. Self isolation should only be for those who are symptomatic. It was on R4 earlier. Well he sounds like a sensible man who will get people to co-operate. Maybe if our govt came out and actually talked to us instead of leaking things to Peston they might get the same response.

My thinking is that death rates would be much higher (including here) and we would know from direct contact with neighbours, etc.

Elderly and ill people including those with underlying issues are a priority and they have to do what is right for them but for the rest of us we have to carry on (with good hygiene) surely?

We need to create the immunity so it dies off and keep beds free for those who need them.

FFS this conversation is getting out of control.

Instead of going on about what is right and what is wrong, which we will and can know only retrospectively, perhaps do what my daughter is currently doing in discussion with me, for when the lockdown occurs - getting a round robin together to give out their numbers, keep in touch with the elderly and vulnerable by telephone, organise shopping rotas etc. i.e. do whatever is necessary to help. Publicising it via her busy local pub, which has many over 70 customers and by any other means that will reach the elderly, who may not all be online.

As an over 70, I would dearly like to be one of the helpers but I won't be able to. However I can ring round, ask what is needed and pass it on etc. I can just chat to the lonely and try to keep up spirits. It may help.

As for those who are convinced the Government is wrong take Matt Hancock up on his invitation this morning - send the Government your ideas for perusal to pick up on anything they have missed.

I have posted only two postings on Coronavirus and that has been on this thread. I won't post any more because I don't think it is helpful.

Just do whatever you can practically to help.

Sorry my first paragraph should say

Death rates would be higher if it was serious for young/healthy as they are the ones moving around the most.

@BiologyIsReal

Well said.

We need to create the immunity so it dies off

There is absolutely no evidence that this can be achieved which is why literally no other country in the world is following this approach. It is reckless and dangerous.

And the alternative with those countries is what? How long will people stay indoors for? We know how immunity works for many viruses and that we can identify strands from immune people and build vaccinations on that data.

No one wants to be a social experiment but this is the time to rely on what we know and understand about virus behaviour.

And we do have data on Coronavirus behaviour just limited on Covid-19.

We also know the stats on those who have recovered - 2% mortality rate consistent across the globe. There are not undiagnosed people dying in large numbers - that is the key thing to remember.

My 79 year old DM was also widowed a few months ago & whilst she's totally mobile/fit, she gets gastro-intestinal problems every few months and quickly becomes incapacitated/dehydrated. She has no 'ballast' and is a bit frail with seemingly low resilience. But she's also a piano teacher (from home) and the children she teaches are her raison d'etre - they bring her so much joy (as well as her/I going to Costa coffee or the garden centre everyday😬) And my DH is over 65 and has a heart condition so is considered to be 'at greater risk' but he's out cycling/walking miles/the gym every day & we see the grandkids regularly (8/10) Where do we fit in?! With self-isolating - do we move DM in with us for a while so she's NOT alone - do I still leave the house, bringing a risk of infection/does DH not see the grandkids for 4 months?? Genuine questions and am somewhat confused by the contradictory opinions re:herd immunity or total lock-down...

Excellent post biology

There's more evidence to suggest that you do develop immunity than that you don't - this is the norm for older coronavirus strains which we've been able to investigate historically, and there are literally 1 or 2 people who have claimed to have had it twice which would happen even if the norm was immunity as there's always a few who don't develop it properly.

1forsorrow is right. Eg since I stopped giving public talks and most meetings (after giving 1700 public talks) I have caught fewer colds. I have no small children at home now work from home etc. It is in a sense social isolation (except it's wonderful and that phrase does not convey how wonderful it is for some of us - have never had a day with as little interaction from others as I would prefer). I have seen my doctor once in 15 years and only had one cold in the last 18 months. Obviously that is because I don't even currently sing in a choir or go to my yoga class so a quick trip to the supermarket is not going in most cases to lead to picking up germs.

Self isolation for covid19 purposes where you do not even get within 2 meters of any family members and do not leave the house full stop is different and only needed for those with the thing or who think they have it.

The point is not to stop the spread. That is not possible.

Correct Bool.

The point is to SLOW the spread.

Keeping children out of circulation as much as possible, along with social distancing (WFH, avoiding pubs, race meetings, etc) and self isolation of active cases accomplishes this.

Insisting children keep on going to school is a recipe for continued unimpeded spread. But as long as workers can still use schools as free childcare Boris Johnson and his investment income friends are happy.

Then in August when a lot of us have immunity, the vulnerable can live again because the virus will be unable to spread.

What immunity? @Bool

You are willing to countenance millions of deaths in order to accomplish an end that has not yet been observed elsewhere.

Is this actual government policy or do we have a monkeys at typewriters situation?
RuffleCrow

THIS ^^

@Bool

You ask if BelleSausage's post is 'for real'.

Her posts are 100% intelligent, real and completely based in common sense.

It's like talking to a wall mathanxiety

There is some sort of bizarre British blind spot at play here. Britain is right and the entirety of the rest of the world is wrong.

Quite why the British public is content with a strategy that allows great swathes of the population to become ill (with 500,000 deaths) while every other country is trying to prevent this is beyond me.

In Ireland there was uproar this time last week because the government hadn't ordered the cancellation of St Patrick's Day parades. There was a feeling that the government was too slow to respond to the threat of the virus. Thankfully that's no longer the case.

They are clogging up the beds

Oh yes, those pesky over 70’s. Fancy them using hospital beds they’ve spent a lifetime paying for!

I am too furious to read past that post.

FMD

Even with 80% of the population contracting it, it doesn’t automatically mean there will be 500,000 deaths.
Control yourself for goodness sake.

There is a broad expert led global consensus on how to deal with it though. The UK is literally the only country in the world that thinks it knows better

I'm intrigued, what is it the UK is doing or not doing that is contrary to "literally" every other country in the world?

I'm intrigued, what is it the UK is doing or not doing that is contrary to "literally" every other country in the world?

Is this a serious question?

The UK is the only country in the world following the theory of herd immunity as a strategy to deal with this virus. Other countries are taking measures to enforce social isolation in order to protect citizens, the most important being closure of the schools.

Do you actually pay attention to the news?

Even with 80% of the population contracting it, it doesn’t automatically mean there will be 500,000 deaths.

You're right, its likely to be much higher than that if 80%.

Look at the statistics. Do the maths. It's really not difficult.

I said it upthread but will say it again.

For most people this is a seasonal flu type thing. You will probably be ill from it. You probably won't die IF you get the right medical treatment. The NHS cant treat everyone at the same time so it's to slow not stop transmission anyway.

We can't stop the world for a year. Or even the UK. So it's either gamble on herd immunity or it is literally survival of the fittest for 12 to 18 months. We would starve to death before then.

People screaming to close schools, wfh, go into lock down haven't given a thought to the poor buggers making sure that there is still food, still medical staff, still electric when you switch the switch.

Telling the most vulnerable in society to stat home is an obvious solution. If you personally want to isolate yourself crack on. You don't need Bojo to tell you that you can. The impact on you and your family won't be pleasant in some cases (no work, no money blah blah blah) but a country wide lock down just means many more people suffer the same thing.

There is no cure . No vaccine. No magic wand. Keeping the most vulnerable as safe as we can while the less vulnerable go about the business of keeping lights on, food in the shops and doctors to treat us all is the most logical and sensible thing.

And I am a lifelong labour supporter and bloody hated Bojo before all this. The man has balls of steel and is actually protecting all of us in spite of what the rest of Europe and the world is doing.

The vulnerable need our help and support right now and that's the best thing we can do.