Spain: this is what happens when you close the schools

[Hopeisnotastrategy]

murciatoday.com/murcian_government_decrees_enforced_quarantine_of_a_guilas_san_pedro_san_javier_los_alca_zares_cartagena_la_unia_n_and_mazarra_n_1353560-a.html?fbclid=IwAR0iqy14FgcHMXspstqQKdALOm-xMVg5S9qkgIV4P8FC55gMNaPf750XlJA

Families leaving Madrid and heading for the coast are spreading the virus throughout the country. A week ago the province of Murcia was only getting its first case of coronavirus.

This virus though is not going to ‘fizzle out’ by magic. The only way to really beat it is by some form of population immunity which will prevent it spreading. People don’t like that because it is not palatable. It is more palatable to think we can hide away and it will go away. It won’t. It will spring back. And maybe harder than ever.

I think most people know that. People are anxious for things like more social distancing, or school closures (except for skeleton staff for childcare for essential workers), in order to slow down and flatten the peak (they've sold us on that!). It's not because they are under the illusion they can stop the virus so it will never come back.

People are naturally wary of any approach which seems to be just saying "it's coming anyway, not much point in aggressively trying to slow it down any more, let's just take a higher than average death rate on the chin and get it over with faster".

That doesn't mean they think the alternative is magically making the virus going away - an alternative of trying really hard to slow it down a lot would do - that's what other countries seem to be doing, and that's why our approach seems worrying to many.

@JingsMahBucket
Yes I totally get that US citizens are being repatriated. I was talking about whet is rattling around in trumps bigoted head and his comments during the crisis.

Without compulsion and consequences people will do what they want. In the absence of international travel, day trippers will head out of cities to the legacy British resorts. The cycle repeats, much the same as ski trips last half term. Rules apply to others. Perhaps the emergency legislation announced this coming Monday will clarify.
However, Boris is a Libertarian, small state politician, who knows?

Japan seem to be doing a bit better than most of us.
Maybe they aren't so selfish.

I guess this is what the modeling has shown Johnson, folk will ignore self isolation, will travel to cornwall etc, go for run, walk the dog... so shutting down schools etc is pointless.
We don't have the military to police lockdowns like China can.

Shanghai is right, democracies aren't always the best things in all circumstances... we didn't have GE's between 1939 and '45 for a reason.

But I don't understand the advice here. If you are Ok and in a city like London should you stay or should you leave? It is very likely it will escalate here and be unavoidable (public transport, population size, a large movement of people travelling through).

I am staying in London as I don't want to jeopardise elderly parents in Ireland. Other housemates moving about as normal and travelling internationally.

@jasjas1973
Thank you. That is exactly what I meant :)

I don't think that people wouldn't be told what to do, that's why are schools are still open.
If all the people who didn't want their kids in school took them out, gov would have to listen/ put up with it.
Many didn't because they wait to be told what to do. We are a nation who are used to being told how to live.
We couldn't be more formal.

@ShanghaiDiva

Never have I been so glad not to live in a democracy

If China had been more democratic local officials in Wuhan would not have hidden the existence of the virus and prosecuted the doctors who dared to talk about it. It could have been contained from the outset.

@Devlesko it isn't to do with children ruling roost - it becomes psychologically damaging to isolate children.

@DrinkSangriaInThePark as above

If you look at what really could help with life or death is getting properly prepared, learning from italy's mistakes, including the fact that they don't have enough ventilators.

@bool the advice from the cmo in relation to immunity and spread is one thing, but the govmt also needs to prepare itself for many getting sick to mitigate the predicted death toll, by learning from italy's experience.

I am in Ontario, Canada and it was announced here yesterday that all public schools will be closed from now until April.

The main reason this has been implemented now is next week is our March Break (basically half-term for us) and traditionally ALOT of Canadians go on vacation down south, Florida etc. They are trying to stop people returning back to school straight after their holiday and spreading the virus quicker. They are reluctant to implement a travel ban.

Cases here are pretty low at the moment, but we all know that can change quickly. They are trying to slow the spread like other countries around the world.

Most parents are relieved from what I am hearing - the upcoming March Break travel was concerning, many have cancelled their holidays now and there is definitely social pressure to do so - it is now seen as irresponsible and selfish to continue with holiday plans in light of what has happened else where in the world.

In good news I have seen many offers of help from our local moms group on Facebook. People offering to watch kids for those that have less flexible jobs. I will probably share care with several neighbours on our street (as long as they haven't travelled recently). Many of us are immigrants and do not have extended family around to help, we will need our friends and neighbours so we can continue to work.

prosecuted the doctors who dared to talk about it.
We have had lots of similar cases in the UK where whistleblowers in the NHS are punished.

@tegucigalpa13
Indeed. The action China has taken does not negate their responsibility with regard to how the issue was handled at the beginning.
As I have said, my comments refer to the extreme measures taken later which have imo saved lives.

OK whatever about the schools colleges etc. closing in Ireland I've just seen a headline stating that Masses are cancelled and Confirmations. My parents are flying back from Spain today and the last few days I've been telling them they should avoid Mass as they are both elderly, my mum has just been diagnosed with breast cancer and my dad is immunosuppressed as he has no pituitary gland and is on steroids and also has diabetes. I don't think my dad gets how serious this all is. Mass being cancelled should ring alarm bells for him. They weren't in one of the hot spots like Madrid thank god. My youngest daughter is on her computer and phone at the same time! Even most of our neighbours seem to be working from home as well. I'm glad people are taking it very seriously. China and Italy frighten me.

His view was, if you close the schools, be prepared for all of the nurses with children to take off work.

Sigh. Because their partner can't take time off (yes, i know a lot of HCP are married to other HCP but in that case someone needs to decide who is going to work and who not).
*
What about the nurses who don't have partners but do have kids?

People offering to watch kids for those that have less flexible jobs. I will probably share care with several neighbours on our street (as long as they haven't travelled recently) I think that this is what you are supposed to not do - no play dates, no sharing care.

@tegucigalpa13
democracy does not by itself kill corruption. take a look at India.

The UK is grossly irresponsible. It is the only country severely affected by the virus that is doing NOTHING. Absolutely nothing. "Business as usual" is not delay you absolute moron Mr Johnson.

Why do people think providing childcare for children of essential workers is some kind of magic unicorn thing?

We are in Germany. The schools are closing. We have just had an email from the school stating they are providing this childcare, and if any parent is in need of it because they work in such an industry, we should contact them. It's not difficult or magic, it's just schools! Running on a much lower staff base and pupil group.

Ironically if you look at the corruption index : India and China have the same position, number 80 out of 170 or so countries.

And where is the UK on the index?!

Number 12

But so far only China has caused a global pandemic....

That was not my point, but I am sure you already know that.
To reiterate democracy does not guarantee no corruption in govt as can be seen from the index and the same position being shared by China, an autocracy, and India, the world’s largest democracy.
I am not denying that China is the source of the pandemic.

@ShanghaiDiva

Have you seen the latest tweets by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman
Zhao Lijian? He seems to be implying it is all some nasty US plot cooked up by the US military. You could not make it up.