Spain: this is what happens when you close the schools

[Hopeisnotastrategy]

murciatoday.com/murcian_government_decrees_enforced_quarantine_of_a_guilas_san_pedro_san_javier_los_alca_zares_cartagena_la_unia_n_and_mazarra_n_1353560-a.html?fbclid=IwAR0iqy14FgcHMXspstqQKdALOm-xMVg5S9qkgIV4P8FC55gMNaPf750XlJA

Families leaving Madrid and heading for the coast are spreading the virus throughout the country. A week ago the province of Murcia was only getting its first case of coronavirus.

The Chinese figures were also reckoned to be out by a factor of up to 20. We are where they were. They did not say "Ah well, too late."

My own city has 0 cases currently. I'm ready to go into lockdown.

France, Spain, US and others have all declared states of emergency.

No matter what closures they’ve done over us we’re all in the same place or will be.

(Bar those who’ve been through similar before)

No other countries will be in a much better lace than us. Wait for the deaths to stack up in the UK way more than other countries.

Do you think that’s because they’ll have a lower proportion of cases? Or something else

Germany is doing well so far but even Merkel says 70% will get it

Will we all be in the same place...?
Those countries that have lower numbers eg Hong Kong which had more cases than the uk back in early Feb, have implemented similar measures to China.

Look our Government is going to murder hundreds of thousands of people by its inaction.

Western - same place

I keep excusing SARS affected but not every post

All but I am interested in do you think they’ll have a lower proportion ?

Murder? Really? I think you need to look up the definition of murder.

Countries that were not so affected by SARS can still learn from China, Taiwan, HK etc. The situation has been going on since January. It is not as if the west is unaware of what other countries did.

Of course they can but it takes the right attitude and time. Taiwan put in measures that took time to implement after SARS.

Everyone learns better if the threat is real to them.

Next time everyone will be better prepared.

I mean you travelled to U.K. not best decision in hindsight, but at the time it felt right.

Everyone here wasn’t in the same headspace as Taiwan.

I'd say the lesson from Italy is first tell businesses anyone who doesn't need to physically be in the work place needs to work from home. Maybe give two days to get that in place. And then close the schools and make it clear that those people with children will be working from home with children in the house.
Childcare was and is a nightmare. We had no notice ok in Italy. Told 6.30pm Sunday night for Monday morning. It was a stressful week. It got worse when you couldn't visit other people's houses though, as that meant no child care pooling either. I think for workers in essential services the govt should already be announcing free childcare vouchers or similar. The trouble is finding a childminder though.

All’s claim that we will be particularly bad does make me want to know what proportion of West populations will end up with it.

Merkel does say 70% will get it... but which of these lines looks the better way to expose 70% of your population?

Whose squiggly lines are those?

The black line, which I am going to call "contain and release" takes much longer than the red line, which I am going to call "get Corona done".

As far as I can see, the advantage of the red line is that you "get Corona done" while other countries are still crippled economically and then get a leg up on the recovery.

The advantage of the black line is that hundreds of thousands less people die.

Did you draw those lines yourself nellodee?

Those squiggly lines are a comparison of the two main approaches. One builds up herd immunity in a single wave. The other reduces deaths massively, but runs the risk of subsequent waves. All I have done is come up with an incredibly bodgy graphic to illustrate these two approaches.

The U.K. are trying to flatten the curve as much as anyone else. Just different approach behaviour and with timings on the stuff you can see like school closures.

Because the point is - if you can control the first wave, then there is no reason to believe you cannot control the next ones.

So you are saying they are aiming for this? You see, if the wave was low, and contained the same amount of population as multiple waves, you can see it would have to start out a lot less steeply.

Ours isn't doing that. It's starting out as swiftly as the lockdown models, but then continuing further before lowering the peak. Assuming the same eventual area under the graph, and an identical initial slope, it has to be higher. I'm going to post a picture next of the graphs growing initially at the same rate, but with the UK version plateauing, which is the only other option.

Does this look natural or achievable? If our govt is expecting to get the same amount of exposure as countries that are containing more sharply and reducing more steeply, then it will almost certainly rise higher.

To be fair, my first graphs should have gone up at the same initial rate too.

Nellodee I’m going to admit I’m finding the charts hard to respond to, might be because it’s late on Saturday night.

But if we agree that countries will end up with the same rate (bar usual) then I do think that the U.K. govt is giving it its best shot at flattening it, which is crucial. I agree with the behavioural before the closure approach.

The U.K. are trying to flatten the curve as much as anyone else

Really? the advice so far, "Wash hands and stay away from people if poorly" were commonplace just a few decades ago, certainly what my mum drummed into me! she was nurse all her life from the 1950s and retired at 70, she also warned me about pandemics and the flu virus, as there were at least 2 in the 1950s...

But apart from that, nothing... so i can only conclude that they want to Get Corona Done!