Spain: this is what happens when you close the schools

[Hopeisnotastrategy]

murciatoday.com/murcian_government_decrees_enforced_quarantine_of_a_guilas_san_pedro_san_javier_los_alca_zares_cartagena_la_unia_n_and_mazarra_n_1353560-a.html?fbclid=IwAR0iqy14FgcHMXspstqQKdALOm-xMVg5S9qkgIV4P8FC55gMNaPf750XlJA

Families leaving Madrid and heading for the coast are spreading the virus throughout the country. A week ago the province of Murcia was only getting its first case of coronavirus.

We need behavioural change. There is no point closing schools if the first thing people do is migrate across the country coughing and spluttering over everyone. Behavioural change first. More draconian measures later. The problem with putting more draconian measures first is that people will break them precisely at the wrong time eg when coming close to the peak.

It wouldn't be possible for the west to do what china did. They barricaded people in their homes, forcibly took people to be quarantined. It is not possible for the west to do the same thing and for the population to accept it.

It's why I accept that BJ has probably done the right thing.

@Bool

Actually I think the vast majority of people are on message on this.

The problem with social media - including Mumsnet - is that it attracts a disproportionate number of worried people who then find their worries intensified by what other people are posting.

I think all we can do is to follow the government advice which is guided by the science and ti remember that for most people this will be a short term, unpleasant, but not fatal illness.

I live in southern spain and all schools have now closed their doors for 2 weeks. My children will be receiving Skype lessons over their laptops from home so they will still have work to do for the next 2 weeks. They will be locking down from Monday all bars, clubs, restaurants and cafes and only leaving open the supermarkets, banks, petrol stations and pharmacies. Everyone is being told to stay in their homes unless travel is essential. Most people are on board with this and will not have a choice regardless. I think it’s all very well and good keeping schools open so that essential workers have childcare but if there are not enough beds for the patients coming into hospitals and the staff go off sick at a rapid rate I can’t see it’s going to work out too well for those who need to critical care. Only time will tell which approach will work more favorably.

@Holowiwi

Chinese doctors, who were at the forefront in Wuhan, are in Italy, full of praise for the policies the Italians have in place, adamant authorities have to close down as much contact as possible... meanwhile 100s of UK scientists have written to the govt demanding much more action on CV19..... a cavalier approach to the nations health....

Still think Johnson is right?

Jet 2 turned planes back to the UK mid air which were en route for Spain today, it was good that they did.

So second homers will be flocking to Cornwall where the underfunded health services barely cope with seasonal fluctuations. But herd immunity seems to rely on the majority getting the virus and overcoming it. Never mind those of us who are older and have compromised immunity. Given reports that ventilation may have to be rationed I don't really fancy my chances. Perhaps all the resentment against babyboomers is coming home to roost. So long folks...

jasjas1973 I don't trust Boris as far as I can throw him, but I do think he listened to the chief medical officer. I don't think this is his plan, he's just going with what they say.

Can I just ask the people that want everything to shut down for an indeterminate amount of time, do you think the economy shouldn't be considered at all? I just worry that the long term impacts of the economy are not been considered by some people who will then later complain when poverty etc increases.
My dh works in an industry which would be massively hit by a recession. We live in a rural area, when the schools shut down and isolation starts we will struggle. We have 1 shop in the village, and the nearest town is a 25 min drive away. Our families live 2 hours away. The thought of being stuck at home with 2 small children for weeks on end is horrible tbh. My mental health isnt great and this will def make it a lot worse. My dh will not be able to work from home, we only have his wage and I'm not sure how we will survive. This will be very true for a lot of people. We only moved here a year ago and only have a few friends to help out if we need it.
If people want to start isolating now then surely they are welcome to do so, for now I am pleased that my dd will get to go to school for a bit longer, as I know she will suffer been stuck at home with her toddler brother for weeks on end. Going to raid the crafts aisle tomorrow though haha.

Honestly Maybe but if you or i were told by 99 doctors we need X treatment but 1 doctor says you need Y treatment... Who would you listen too?

Johnson has always wanted to be the hero, a Churchill second coming.
If you knew a man who had fathered 6 kids from 3 different women, sacked twice for lying & cheated on previous partners, you would give him a wide berth.
He also helped to take the UK out of the EU, arguably a high risk gamble, not as a long standing eurosceptic but to gain power.

It is truly astounding he has become PM.

@Holowiwi
I think we may be prepared to accept more if society depended on it.
Forcibly quarantining people- question is do you want those who are infected to be out mixing with the general population?
I know when I return to China I will at the very minimum have a 14 day isolation at home and if the situation in the uk continues to deteriorate this will be 14 days in a designated quarantine area. This is regardless of symptoms. Do I want to do this? No. Is it the right thing to do? Based on what we know about the virus, probably. Will I comply? Yes.

We will not be able to do the same as economies like China. Our centralisation/ control and legislature is not the same. Each country is different e.g. demographics etc This will affect the methods we use to control the virus. If we look to America, we can see they're in a mess as each state to some extent is like a separate country. Perhaps incoming flights are one of the few things there is direct control over.

China definitely has advantages re introducing measure, not all are to do with govt, some are to do with the way cities operate.
If you already have compound security it’s straightforward to enhance it to stop non residents entering compounds.

I don't get this whole "isolation fatigue" thing. We're supposed to get bored of this just when it's peaking and all decide we're coming out of our houses?

But if the government's aim is 60% infected over 3 months or so, outside is going to be a place of such unimaginable horror that no-one in their right mind would want to go out into it.

Interesting headlines

Ginny, that’s how you perceive it. Personally k would prioritise lives over the economy.

I also have bad mental health, and the fact we aren’t being encouraged to isolate or reduce contact is sending is also sending my anxiety into overdrive. So who’s anxiety takes precedence?

I think what "isolation fatigue" really means is, we're not prepared, as a government, to put the security nets in place to make extended isolation feasible.

@Bool I agree
It’s all happening gradually but there is a plan
I am certain that it is all moving towards a lockdown Similar to Italy before we get to Easter. There is no way people will be allowed to leave houses etc during the Easter holidays and go on holiday.

@Ginnymweasley
China has shut down completely for approx six weeks.
In that time some provinces have got down to ZERO active cases (from hundreds or some cases low thousand total cases).
Several others are now single digit active cases.
For example, Anhui province had 996 cases - that is now zero. A province with a Similar size and population as England. Not far from Hubei province, the epicenter.
So YES I think that’s an eventuality worth sacrificing two months of GDP for, as opposed to dealing with 3 million people with a serious/critical disease.

China currently now has just 12,000 active cases. Some provinces are zero and are taking of reopening schools in a matter of a few weeks. (Obviously with stringent safeguards in place). They think our strategy is insanity beyond belief.

@Cam77
Agree and my province, Jiangsu is practically a zero province, just waiting for one more recovery and there have been no deaths.
When lives are at stake, I don’t really understand isolation fatigue: we just have to put up with it for as long as necessary.
I am back in the uk with my mum and have her on lockdown!

I actually think the UKs plan is more likely to be detrimental to the economy than shutting everything down early. Businesses are already struggling as people self isolate, wfh, stop going out as much etc. If you think that lockdown right now for 4-6 weeks will resolve the problem with the virus for good then surely that is better for the economy than the current UK plan of making small changes a bit at a time and delaying the peak. So I don't really get the argument for it being about money.

If the CMO/CSO get this wrong then they will be on the chopping block, as well as Boris, I really don't think they are all conspiring just to protect the economy. There are too many complex factors involved and I would expect the CMO/CSO of the UK to have the best knowledge on the UK spread of the virus. I do think there are some people who are so anti-boris that they just always look to blame him for everything. EVERYTHING. If he ignored the CMO advice and just did what he wanted people would blame him for that too.

I can understand there may be different ways to try and control a pandemic. There are a number of medical experts that are agreeing with the uk plan, many don't. I think this is the conflict, the experts don't agree.

The UK plan does make sense if they time everything correctly. I do see the risk, and I do understand the worry. But even if we were in lockdown I would still be worried about second waves and what the death rate will be long term. There is no risk free plan and no guarantee the virus can be stopped, not now.

At the end of the day we won't know for many, many months if there is one approach that has worked better than others.

Look at what China is doing to control second waves of infection: quarantine a a self isolation for all of returning to China.

It’s great China is zero but they started it and acted quickly.

Even if we had closed the borders before that Brighton guy was here someone from China could have arrived before that with it without us knowing and started spreading it already.

Then with small numbers China style lock down could have worked but we don’t have the set up to do what they did.