Spain: this is what happens when you close the schools

[Hopeisnotastrategy]

murciatoday.com/murcian_government_decrees_enforced_quarantine_of_a_guilas_san_pedro_san_javier_los_alca_zares_cartagena_la_unia_n_and_mazarra_n_1353560-a.html?fbclid=IwAR0iqy14FgcHMXspstqQKdALOm-xMVg5S9qkgIV4P8FC55gMNaPf750XlJA

Families leaving Madrid and heading for the coast are spreading the virus throughout the country. A week ago the province of Murcia was only getting its first case of coronavirus.

@EarringsandLipstick I agree with being impressed with businesses. My facebook is full of people recommending businesses who have refunded monies no questions asked for bookings in hotels, playcentres, cake makers, holidays etc. Especially small businesses who will be hit the hardest who are checking up on the clients and refunding money straight away. I have made sure to take note of those businesses to use them in the future and I know others who have too. Some businesses with vans are offering to bring people to the doctor or pick up supplies for them and a lot of online businesses are making resources available for free for the next month to parents with children at home. Even though things are so scary it does the heart good to see a community to pull together

@GinAndNightnurse

That’s true.

But

They were worried about flights being cancelled altogether. Lufthansa had already cancelled 50% of their flights globally before the Trump announcement. US airlines are laying off even more staff and cancelling more flights. Prices on those remaining are rocketing.

They were also concerned about compulsory quarantine on arrival. If they get home before the ban they will not be identified on arrival.

And like many in this situation they and their families heard a headline message, panicked and acted on impulse. And that is what people across the globe will do if measures are not SIMPLE and ENFORCEABLE.

The reason that most laws are years in gestation is that making it up on the back of an envelope tends not to work.

@Bool

I agree. I think Leo panicked. Although tbh the Irish health care system is in a much worse state than the NHS.

@Bool personally I don't think so. Ireland is small with not much degree in seperation between people. We had next monday and tuesday as a bank holiday and then were only back for a bit before our Easter holidays started, it kind of had to be a now or never situation. Had Patricks day celebrations gone ahead it would have been devastating and with people in "holiday" mode and flying off all over the world for holidays it had to be done now for people to take it seriously and to get people to comply. No one thinks this will stop the spread but hopefully stagger the spread so our front line staff can cope.

@vandree just worried it will result in quarantine fatigue. People will get very bored quicker and come out if quarantine when we really really need it - nearer the peak. That is the reasoning behind not closing the schools here yet. They will do it when we really need it.

The logic goes something like this:

In order to minimise the spread of the virus, schools need to close and people need to self-isolate.

However, the Great British public has a tendency to not trust the government and think that they can manage a situation by doing what they think rather than what they are told.

A significant minority of people will think medical advice only applies to everyone else and take measures that will actually increase the spread of the virus, like going to their second homes and leisure locations, and increase the risks to the more vulnerable like stockpiling.

Another significant minority will complain because they only value schools as somewhere convenient to pack their children off to for 6-10 hours a day. They will try to replicate the school childcare model by putting groups of children together. This is worse than keeping children together in schools where the contact groups are local to each other, identifiable through registration lists, and the children protected through robust safeguarding procedures.

So the stated plan is to keep the schools open.

Once the majority are saying that the schools need to close in order to reduce the virus spread, and are showing that they are likely to comply with the restrictions and inconvenience this brings, the schools will then close.

The government is seen to be listening to the people and can go further in the measures they take as they then have the majority with them.

No Bool I disagree.

What Ireland has done is take clear & decisive action. People are really clear on what to do.

Compared with what I read here, where people are genuinely and understandably confused.

Modelling had shown that we were due a large increase which would move us past the containment phase. It's not that 2 weeks will sort it all out. It won't. But people are clear what to do for 2 weeks, then further direction will be provided.

And is not lockdown. People can go out, shop, socialise if they wish. The public health authorities have been excellent and really clear, exactly so people don't freak out about needing to entirely isolate.

Reading other threads here about people in UK heading to large fundraisers, parties etc proves this to be the right approach.

@Bool I think the Irish Health care system has its faults like any other but our experience of it is very positive. I assume you have some experience of it to say its in worse state than the NHS?

Quarantine fatigue will happen no matter when its implimented. It stands to us that we are smaller in that we can police each other more, people wont stand for their neighbours breaking quarantine measures put in place and we have a tight community. With our schools breaking up anyway it had to be done now before people left the country or their communities. People are prepared, we all know it will be nearer the end of April or longer before quarantine is lifted, people aren't stupid. We are told one thing but we all know how things will go so people are prepared. I have neighbours and friends who have bought supplies to paint their home or build a deck, online school packages are being bought. Not everyone will comply but there will be an army presence, there has to be and people have accepted that

Here we self isolate early with symptoms could be a better message

Earringsandlipstick said it better than me. People have accepted what needs to happen and for how long it will happen. We aren't in total lock down, its being phased with the schools just being the start. And petty as it sounds what the Brits are doing the Irish will do the opposite of (lighthearted btw) We are also closely knit, all families have front line staff in their midst, we want to protect them and the vulnerable.

You still have an open border though with NI

The point of closing schools, crèches etc here in Ireland is to delay the peak. Why would we wait until it’s already overwhelmed the health service? I really think people are confused about the reasons for this. It’s NOT going to prevent everyone from getting the virus, the intention is to slow the spread as best we can to make dealing with it more manageable. The decision has definitely focused the minds of some businesses, including my employers, who were doing little more than encouraging extra hand washing.

It’s a bit early though to say that people in Ireland will deal with this sensibly and responsibly, after all the schools have only been closed for one day (and everyone was apparently too busy raiding supermarkets to have play dates and outings ). Every nation has their share of selfish and ignorant citizens so really it remains to be seen whether parents will allow the dc to treat it like school holidays. Fingers crossed the majority won’t.

What has the open border to do with things? People aren't suddenly driving to the north to run around the shops and streets and attend school there! The open border is nothing new and magical to us here in the south, its just part and parcel of life in Ireland.

Self isolating with symptoms is great, except children dont have symptoms but shed the virus to the vulnerable and people are spreading the virus without knowing they are sick or even have it. What good does that do?

You have your way I’m not convinced, maybe maybe not.

Changing behaviour is hard and that’s the approach here first. Makes sense.

And as was said, no one thinks its going to stop the spread but slow it and stagger it so the health service can cope

Yes to stagger it there are various ways, I’m not convinced they aren’t good at predicting behaviour here.

Compared with what I read here, where people are genuinely and understandably confused

1. Wash your hands
2. Self isolate for 7 days if you have a cough or a fever

Nothing confusing about that. What is confusing is everybody shouting about what we should be doing instead of listening to the clear instructions.

Yes every other Government and WHO are wrong. Only the British Government are right to keep schools open.

I am taking my kids out of school from Monday. Please consider it if you have kids.

@Vandree I think you have mistaken me for someone else. I have no opinion on the state of the Irish Health system and have never in my life made one. It was a different poster.

@bool You forgot, and accept that 60% of the population will get this virus and hundreds of thousands will die. Because it is just too hard to do what every other country is doing.

@alloutoffucks good for you. Take them out. It is unnecessary at this stage unless they have underlying conditions and then I would do. If the peak hits in June as they say it will if we dampen this down as we should do, then you will be tearing your hair out. But go ahead.

Yes I do accept that 60% of us will get this. As has Angela Merkel (I think she said 70% to Germany). Unless we get a vaccine. But that won’t happen for 18 months.

@alloutoffucks which country do you wish to move to that is managing this better?

Apologies @Bool, I did indeed mean another OP

I like Britain, I have no wish to immigrate. But almost any country is managing this virus better than the UK.