Worried about coronavirus thread 25

[ofwarren]

Here's the new thread
I'll get Mumsnet to add the links later as I'm busy.

Wow @Maighdeann better than ours. We have got the usual we are following the advice but we have plans in place should the advice change and may extend easter break (what that does for full time staff is anyone's guess!)

When do we think there’ll be another COBRA meeting?

God knows. But what would any meeting actually say/do?
Wash your hands?

Another 250 dead in Italy and 2,500 new cases. Just today. Our UK Gov needs to do everything in its' power to slow this down.

@middleager true!

BREAKING: #Italy becomes #1 country with the most #coronavirus active cases. Overtaking China.

Coronavirus deaths in Italy rise to 1,266 - up 250 in a day t.co/75YQJZXJGA

BREAKING: Italy reports 250 new deaths and 2,547 new cases, raising total to 1,266 dead and 17,660 cases t.co/eUoE2b20hL

This is dire
People are panicking it's clear.

Social media is going mad.

I've got a months worth of food in but just tried to do a top up and no delivery for a week!

How can the government do so little when they can see what is happening in Italy. I've never been so afraid .

MORE: Italy has also reported 181 new recoveries and 175 new cases in serious condition; total of 1,439 recovered and 1,328 in serious condition

Yes, we can’t get a delivery slot for atleast 6 days now. There’s no toilet roll on there, no hand wash, no paracetamol and very few antibacterial sprays!

Sorry I havent read the whole thread but does anyone know why the arcgis site isn't showing any stats for the UK?. Its been like this for a while

Feck. I WISH we had Jeremy Corbyn leading us through this 🥺

Just a question re self isolation. 37.8 was mentioned. Is that with calpol or without? My DS(age 2) has a temperature of 37.6 which is high for him.

As usual there is lots of really useful information on here and I want to say thank you.

On the subject of NHS resources, additional ventilators, nursing staff being drafted from other areas.

Ventilators aren't just something that can be plugged in, attached to a patient and job done. They are complex machines that rely of specialists to set them up and specialist nursing staff to continuously monitor them.

Most of our hospitals are full, stopping routine surgery will create some capacity but nowhere near enough and it could be in a different part of the hospital and staffed by nurses with no respiratory experience.

Bed blocking is a massive issue with huge numbers of elderly people waiting for care packages and places in care/nursing homes they can't be moved quickly there just isn't enough social care out there. I can't imagine any care/nursing home manager being keen on going into a hospital to assess anyone let alone accept a resident from a hospital.

Someone upthread mentioned drafting in nurses to ICU & the impact it would have on other areas (which I agree with) - in reality it isn’t even possible to draft nurses from other areas into ICU (unless they have prior experience) as it is so, so highly specialised. I’ve been a nurse in an acute trust for over 10 years, from acute gastro nursing to oncology, and would not have the first idea how to manage someone on a ventilator. I might be able to do some other bits, but the core nursing work in ICU? Completely unsafe. It would take significant training to get me to a decent, safe level. I have a masters degree and am a non-medical prescriber - very experienced in my own field, but with no ICU background I would be next to useless.
@Sipperskipper I work in theatres, those of us with anaesthetic skills have already been told that we will either be working in ICU or that our theatres will be turned into mini ICUs and we'll be nursing ventilated patients there. We just have to hope we have enough anaesthetists too.

Thanks for the update ofwarren I'm still catching up. Can anybody give me a quick summary re Italy numbers and if there are any cracks of sunlight coming through?

Eiffel Tower in Paris will close tonight until further notice due to coronavirus pandemic. france

But among others asking questions about the strategy is Anthony Costello, a paediatrician, research scientist and former director of mother, child and adolescent health at WHO.

In this twitter thread, he states that vaccines are a safer way to develop herd immunity, without the risks associated with the disease itself and asks: “Is it ethical to adopt a policy that threatens immediate casualties on the basis of an uncertain future benefit”

Unlike all other countries, the UK strategy aims to build herd immunity by allowing the steady spread of #COVID19. The government argue it will block a second peak in several months time. Here are EIGHT questions about this HERD IMMUNITY strategy: (THREAD)

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.html

1328 in intensive care in Italy. According to Chinese stats circa 60% of patients that end up in ICU ultimately die.

So with current stats that would mean of Italy’s current 17660 cases, there are 1266 deaths + 797 likely deaths = 2063 and CFR = 8.56%.

However we know that as of 10 days ago Italy stopped testing mild cases in Lombardy. Prior to that mild cases/contact tracing made up roughly half the recorded cases. So real CFR likely 4%, with an unknown number of uncounted asymptomatic cases not part of contact tracing.

From Twitter

Rose Robert Rose
@buddha8888888
·
6h
Anybody got a thermometer i can borrow? Im shivering aching,coughing but the
@DWP
just threatened to sanction me if i miss my appointment later today if i don't have a doctors note how do I get one? #coronavirus (hope its just a cold)
Rose Robert Rose
@buddha8888888
They seem so slow to react I feel it is just a bad cold/flu and haven't left the house for 3 days but the lady at the
@DWP
Seems to think booking an appointment with my doctor to go and get a sick note before later this afternoon is an option Face with cold sweat #CoronaOutbreak

Upthread wanted to know what overseas press was saying about us:

Italian newspaper 'Corriere Della Serra' describes Boris' quote as 'shocking' then writes:

'But the reaction is perhaps even more chilling: we will do nothing. Because this is the line chosen by the government of Boris Johnson: forward as if nothing had happened. Britain separates itself from the rest of Europe: while governments on the continent take increasingly drastic measures, London literally washes their hands. The fundamental advice against coronavirus is in fact to use soap and water; those who have symptoms are invited to stay home for a week; but otherwise it's business as usual. No closures, no emergencies: life in London continues to flow normally (and no one goes to ground with a mask).

Thank you Deft
That is devastating.

😲😲😲😢😢😢😢😢 four per cent as a best case scenario ? That is one in 25 people. I am just trying to imagine what that might mean in my village full of elderly people.