Worried about coronavirus thread 25

[ofwarren]

Here's the new thread
I'll get Mumsnet to add the links later as I'm busy.

FusspotsMum (I have no idea how to tag) I think it is about 7% positive out of the number of tests done

I'm loving Peng Wu.

twitter.com/egbert_pengwu/status/1238465193123946498?s=21

Maighdeean Are you sure it's just that department?

DD came home last week as they were striking and wanted some recovery time at home after an operation. Due to do a long journey back to Edinburgh on Monday.

@FusspotsMum ah, that's something at least!

Just had more "guidance" from my employer. They state:

"The risk of catching COVID-19 within the workplace is low"

Really?? I'd love to know what they are basing that on! This is a public sector organisation which works with vulnerable people. I don't believe for one second it is low risk.

From Peng Wu's chart are we only a day behind Italy in the numbers?! From first cases?!

now very limited hospital patient only testing.

So our government can say that the rate isn’t growing exponentially any more!

@FourTeaFallOut They will get this from the death tally plus the maxed out icu beds

"Are we really so content with the levels of the other countries then?"

Horehound People are afraid that without taking most of the measures those other countries are using,
UK deaths will end up being much higher than theirs at peak
and overloading the NHS even more than necessary

I have to say that my employer has let me know they're taking advice from phe re underlying conditions and will keep me updated if advice changes.

Goodness it is terrifying. I rarely post but regularly read and I cannot thank you all enough for your insight, knowledge and advice.

Does anyone know what the current estimated case fatality rate is?

Worldometer has the mortality rate at 7% of closed cases, but that's higher than any estimate I've seen elsewhere. I thought they were estimating 1% CFR?

I swear the Trumps are spreading it

I feel a conspiracy theory coming on...

From Peng Wu's chart are we only a day behind Italy in the numbers?! From first cases?!

Ignore me, I didn't read the chart properly. We are a day behind what was predicted.

I don't feel any happier though!

The not testing is really frustrating.
DD1 went on holiday with her BF this weekend to country with a similar number of cases to our own. They came home on Tuesday. Yesterday BF developed a fever and is now self isolating for 7 days.

It may not be corona but if it was confirmed then DD1 could self isolate just in case she caught from him.
As it is we are carrying in as normal - DD is in college, my other children have gone to school. It feels so messy

winni we may not be exactly on the same trajectory for Italy for various reasons, this statistician below speculates on various reasons why Italy has had it so bad. But we will clearly still be growing exponentially with much worse expected.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51858987

@RedLentilYellowLentil angiotensin receptor blockers work in the same way with regards to ACE 2 cells which the virus binds to. As I understand these are not a good alternative

Any news on Scotland numbers? Thought it would have been updated at 2pm.

Oh @mrshoho so it will have to be rife in your local area before they take mitigating steps? Of course, why would I expect anything else?

"just purely out of interest what do you think more testing will achieve?"

Foregone90 Why do you think other countries bother to test?

Why do you think the WHO praises countries for testing ?

The WHO is criticising (without names) countries for doing too little

I work in an imaging department of a hospital with cases diagned yesterday 'The guidance is if you have been in contact with these patients you can continue to go about with your normal activities and work and should only self isolate if you become symptomatic, this is because Imaging procedures are low risk' hmmm, not sure about that.

The not testing is really frustrating.DD1 went on holiday with her BF this weekend to country with a similar number of cases to our own. They came home on Tuesday. Yesterday BF developed a fever and is now self isolating for 7 days. It may not be corona but if it was confirmed then DD1 could self isolate just in case she caught from him. As it is we are carrying in as normal - DD is in college, my other children have gone to school. It feels so messy angry

Exactly this.

If you know x has it, people who have been in contact with x can self-isolate.

If loads of people are self isolating because of a cough, but we don’t test them, all those (thus far) symptomless people who came into contact with them who would have self isolated had they tested positive, now won’t.

Seems the death toll hasnt been updated.

Just read firsthand from a lady whose cousin ( a doctor in her 30s) has died this morning from the virus

So what's this news about only elderly ppl and ppl with low immunity are at risk??

This is clearly getting scary.

Does the uk govt want our kids to be drppping one by one before they act??

just purely out of interest what do you think more testing will achieve? Knowing how many cases we have in the country is not going to make them go away.

This wasn't aimed at me, but I've got a few thoughts:

1. In the short-term, knowing the country's disease burden will aid planning and deployment of resources.

1. Also in the short-term, a firm diagnosis may well affect the care plan for any given individual.

1. In the longer term, as a pp says, watching the curve rise and (hopefully) fall will tell us what measures are or aren't helping to curb spread and reduce incidence, and whether it's safe/when it's time to relax restrictions.

1. In the much longer term, analysis of the numbers of infected, recovered and deceased will enable (one hopes) some lessons to be learned on a global basis, about the virus itself, and about what strategies were most effective and which countries' health infrastructure was in the best shape and was the most responsive. I suspect this is the bit the UK is not crazy to have publicly available.

I'm sure there are more, but that's off the top of my head.

twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1238207141342822413

"I've been working on epidemic preparedness for 20 years... this is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career, and that includes ebola, mers, sars... "