Worst case scenario estimates *Title edited by MNHQ*

[Ladykluck]

The chief medical officer said 80% of the population are expected to be infected with 1% mortality so they are expecting around 480,000 to die. Although they stopped short of actually saying that number. Just in case anyone missed it. I’m a doctor and the doctors of Europe are screaming at us to shut the country down and BoJo just told us to stay home for a week and not go on a cruise.

Not go on a cruise if you're elderly.... The rest of us are fine...

80% ??? Of the British population?

He doesn’t care.

He’s not a high risk group so it does t matter to him.

He can now blame the coming recession on CV19 instead of his brexit- perfect scapegoat just at the perfect time.

1% is rather on the conservative side given the WHO CFR of 3.4%

But 80,000 people have had it in China (if, of course we know the true figures). And they have a massive population, much much bigger than ours.

did he say that? or did he repeat Worse case scenario?

That's worse case scenario. They est more like 100,000

@Teddypops I’m not sure I’d trust the Chinese stats.

Enough

Everyone is going mad.

I think a 1% mortality is a significant underestimate too. South Korean data which is likely to be more accurate than China suggests 4.5% in over 60s. Globally it seems to be 7% overall.
Under 60 the risk increases for medical staff who have repeat exposure but is 0.1%, so comparatively low but that’s still 1:1000

Unfortunately we have one of the lowest beds per capita and ITau beds per capita in all G20 and European countries.

How would they know 80% have it, when many won't have any symptoms at all? They're not going to test everyone, are they?

How on earth does that prove she isnt a doctor user

Or have i missed something

That's not true, he did not say 80% are expected to get it.

@user

The data I've seen could potentially massively underestimate the true mortality.

All the ICU beds are full, there is very limited capacity to make more.

Either a higher percentage of coronavirus patients will die, or, the people that would have been on ICU (heart attacks, strokes, trauma) will.

I am a solicitor. I wouldn't ask a forum of unqualified people for legal advice on an area if law I dont know about and nor would I use google to try and find it.

I'd ask a colleague in that area.

If a real doctor is using google and asking unqualified people on mumsnet then I hope I'm never treated by her.

China is treating everyone including the oldest of the elderly which is why their mortality rates are low (they have had multiple 100 year old survivors). Other countries with more stretched healthcare are not treating everyone equally - doctors have already said that Italian hospitals are refusing to admit anyone over 65 (whether they have pre-existing conditions or not). So my guess is if the delay phase can’t be met then the figure will be over the worst case scenario as the UK will start rationing treatment.

*He doesn’t care.

He’s not a high risk group so it doesn't matter to him.*

Tory voters in a nutshell! 👍🏻

She seems to be asking for experiences

But I don’t care that much and I’m sure youre not overly bothered about discussing it with me so I’ll leave it

To be fair they’ve said this from day one so not sure why its a surprise today.

I think you'd better watch the press conference again and listen properly this time.

Agree - these figures have been discussed pretty much from the outset.

It's one of the reasons why the comparison to the flu is so misplaced.

The disease will only start to slow when a high %age of the population have had it (assuming durable immunity) or when an effective vaccine is rolled out.

What is a major confounder is the absence of good information on how many cases there have been which are mild or even subclinical.

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Excellent paper explaining the different mortality rates - and likely infections

I hadn't heard that.