worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 21

[usernameishistory]

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Symptoms:
Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death.

MERS came from camels, SARS from civet cats.

(Extracts from WHO)

Helpful links

The new PHE dashboard for monitoring covid-19 latest published UK figures
www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england
Numbers for Wales (unknown update time)
phw.nhs.wales/topics/latest-information-on-novel-coronavirus-covid-19/

Look after yourself, help with managing your mental well-being, including for self-isolation here.
www.mind.org.uk/information-support/coronavirus-and-your-wellbeing/

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus. Please provide updated link if possible, I haven't been able to make this one work.

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

For research on CV and babies:
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761659

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

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Round up of one-liners gathered from the wisdoms across the threads, with links...

Work is progressing on vaccine, take 1yr -18 mths for safe use.
First human trials of vaccine started
www.livescience.com/us-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-recruiting.html

Advice for anxiety
www.cci.health.wa.gov.au/Resources/Looking-After-Yourself/Anxiety

WHO advice to the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Specialist asthma sufferers advice here:
www.asthma.org.uk/about/media/news/Coronavirus/

In the coming days, guidance for healthcare professionals on Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in pregnancy will be published by the RCOG, Royal College of Midwives, Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, Public Health England and Health Protection Scotland
....
www.rcog.org.uk/coronavirus-pregnancy

A plea,

• to remember to help food banks stay stocked up
• to give older, or maybe lone, neighbours your phone number with offers to help with shopping and medicine collections

Life expectancy of virus on surfaces
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463#

sodium hypochlorite drum to kill virus

The stance on profiteering from CV
www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-statement-on-sales-and-pricing-practices-during-coronavirus-outbreak

A survivors story - only ONE story remember!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-51714162/how-i-recovered-from-coronavirus-and-isolation

Irreversible lung damage? Aids/sars effects
amp.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/chinese-doctors-say-coronavirus-like-a-combination-of-sars-and-aids-can-cause-irreversible-lung-damage/news-story/f58f19c5eeae99b845c54e2d2b9305ca?__twitter_impression=true

The efficacy, or otherwise of sanitisers
www.bics.org.uk/coronavirus-dr-andrew-kemp-jp-phd-reports/

Sign the petition for action against CV19
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300403

Travelling, making other decisions around
exposure
read up, noone can decide for you, but be aware...
Your mode of transport (train/boat/plane) is unlikely to be disinfected.
You may not be welcome back at work (forced isolation unpaid because you decided to take risk)
Getting stuck in quarantine in another country, subjected to their health service and govt restrictions on you.
What happens with your dc and school upon return.
Holiday insurance cover?

Positive ways of coping

Exercise daily, out where you won't be in close proximity (greater than 2 metres)

Eat well, healthy foods, plenty of liquid

Include natural antivirals in diet and good levels of daily vit c, vit d

Rest

Take steps to address any raised anxiety, above what might be reasonable and normal steps for keeping viral hygiene under control.
Its normal to feel more anxious, and normal to take steps to manage situation by being well prepared.

Isolation Issues

Getting sufficient shopping in on low incomes, and/or vulnerable / already isolated

Keeping on top of KEY METERS - need to top up yet in isolation - what measures are there to help

Paying mortgage/rent (private & housing associations) if not receiving sick pay

Legislation that enforced isolation = sick (for sick pay purposes)

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Primary mode of transmission is airborne droplets.

Sneeze or cough into elbow (or tissue and bin it). Droplets can travel 2m.

Secondary means of transmission touch.

Hand wash to
Break the transmission cycle from hand to mouth, eyes, nose, or to others, by 20 seconds plus thorough hand washing (soap and water).

Alcohol breaks down the outer layer of virus to effectively kill, other methods may not.
(Anti bacterial does NOT do this and overuse may risk bacterial resistance).

Use 70% vol alcohol to any other additive

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Huge thanks to all contributors; for updates and trying to keep to trusted sources of information.

The community here has been supportive and respectful despite worries, and that can make a huge difference in unknown times.

thoughts go to all those affected, in whatever way.

Italy is now reporting Wuhan numbers at its peak.

That’s what where we will be in a few weeks if we don’t implement early social distancing and more meticulous contact tracing.

Wowsers on Italy numbers. The CFR based on deaths vs recoveries - cases with a known outcome is 44.2% up from 38.6%. I know it takes a long time to recover hence the reason this rate should drop as time goes on - for China it's currently around 4.9%. However, I am horrified at the numbers dying in Italy.
Over 1000 are serious/crititcal.

hasnt our government put 30 billion towards helping our own country let alonE the whole of the EU?

Allegedly.

Do that calculation again in three weeks jaxhog.

WHO very clear that countries who are still limiting testing to only those with direct link to an affected other country (China, Italy) is unhelpful and ineffective in identifying, tracing contacts, isolating and effectively containing with sufficient aggression and resolve to make a difference. Judging against their advice and descriptions of which countries are doing well in this, the UK is one of the ones they feel is not doing nearly enough.

Today

My post earlier, friend called saying didn't feel well, doc tells her to go to local surgery, they treated her like plague victim, go home call 111. They were not bothered with her symptoms or the fact she worked in a school recently closed for covid cleaning. They just said, have you been near a known covid case, she said '' no '' and that was that.

So it's not surprising with the usual layers of mis information, chaos, and so on that some hcp are being made aware of Any plans and some aren't

Washington becomes first state to ban sporting, religious and social events to stop spread of coronavirus t.co/7YE2EQthru
The independent

Yep. UK's medical experts including the CMO and deputy CMO insist they know better than the WHO and other world-leading experts who have more experience in directly managing and assessing epidemics. It's a risky bet to have made, and if they are wrong the consequences will be huge

www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/18298580.coronavirus-nine-cumbrian-cases-expert-anticipates-next-phase/

A HEALTH chief says Cumbria is moving into the "next phase" of the coronavirus outbreak after a ninth person from the county tested positive for COVID-19.

Cumbria's Director of Public Health Colin Cox said the latest person found to have the virus was in the cardiac unit of Furness General Hospital, where the patient is currently being treated.

"They are well used to managing infection control," said Mr Cox.

With the current number of UK cases standing at 456, Mr Cox said the situation - including the confirmation yesterday that a teacher at Carlisle's Trinity School has coronavirus - had led him to the conclusion that the outbreak is moving from the so-called "containment" stage to the delay phase - recognition that the virus is being transmitted from person to person in the community.

Mr Cox said of the situation in Cumbria generally: "I'm certainly expecting the number of cases to rise.

"It feels to me like we're very much moving from the containment phase which the government has talked about to the to the delay phase of things. When you move to the delay phase there's an expectation that containment is not going to be successful.

"An epidemic is going to happen and you're going to get lots more community transmission, and therefore the purpose is no longer to try to prevent lots of infection; it's to try to manage the shape of the epidemic."

The national strategy is likely to focus on ensuring more "social distancing" between people to slow the spread of coronavirus.

We have 100th of the information available to the CMO and his team and 99.9% of us lack anything like the ability to interpret that information in a meaningful and informed way.

Whatever they say or do there will be armchair expert insisting it's "obvious" we should do X, Y or Z to the contrary.

In my view in such situations it is wise to accept when you have insufficient knowledge to make an informed decision and defer to those who do.

If you want to self isolate now I doubt anyone will stand in your way.

Loppy10 that is why I haven't been very comforted by the whole 'Don't worry, the government are acting (not acting at all) on expert advice.'

Why are the UK experts recommending a completely different approach to the rest of the world experts? An approach that looks to anyone else looking in as if it is completely ineffectual? In fact, non-existent apart from saying what we probably will do if (when) it gets really bad.

In my view in such situations it is wise to accept when you have insufficient knowledge to make an informed decision and defer to those who do.

The WHO or PHE?

Jax- are you sure you’ve got your calculation right? 0.000008% is, by my calculation, 8 cases in 100 million. We’ve had hundreds of cases and have a population of 66 million.

Yes. Some people are really getting on my nerves about their response to this. Stop typing 'terrifying' and trying to whip people up into a frenzy. It's disproportionate and will help nobody.

Quite, also those posting 'facts' from 'experts', and making up their own theories/ adding up 2 and 2 and coming up with 10.

I'm not sure accusations like this are helpful. @...tuesday - you're more likely to be listened to as a health professional with valuable insights if you don't sneer (unfortunately, however unintentionally, it's coming across a bit like that) at the people who sound more afraid than you think they should be. Just because people have found sources you disagree with and that frighten them, doesn't mean they must have some kind of motivation to spread fear and panic. Trying to police people's conversations to stick to what you personally feel they should say is understandable, but I think perhaps not as effective as joining in the conversation to give alternative views without the criticism.

This is interesting - Fear of Fear: The Role of Fear in Preparedness … and Why It Terrifies Officials (it's worth reading the whole thing):

Most importantly, treat other people’s fear as legitimate. Fear is likeliest to escalate into terror or panic (or to flip into denial) when it is treated as shameful and wrong. “It’s natural to be afraid, I’m afraid too” is a much more empathic response to public fear than “there’s nothing to be afraid of.” If we want people to bear their fear, we must assure them that their fear is appropriate. Even fear that is statistically inappropriate can and should be legitimized as normal, understandable, and widespread. Leaders who are contemptuous of people’s fear have a much tougher time explaining the reasons why they needn’t be afraid.

Not all fear is functional. Fear that is paralyzing, fear that verges on panic, is obviously not functional. Terror is the goal of terrorism, not the goal of preparedness. But fear is not necessarily terror. This is a conceptual mistake officials routinely make, a mistake they seem terribly attracted to – the embedded, preconscious, erroneous assumption that all fear is one short step removed from panic. Some fear is. Most fear is not.

Officials tend to want a “push-button public” that does what it is told but has no opinions or feelings of its own – certainly none that would lead it to question its leaders’ leadership. They want a public that waits calmly, even apathetically, until told to do something, and then acts instantly and unquestioningly. They want a public that takes prescribed precautions cheerfully, and takes no other precautions period. It is natural to want that … but officials must learn to accept that they can’t have it.

The WHO or PHE?

Exactly.

I know who I'd trust to know more about how epidemics work.

For those saying we wouldn’t understand- well actually we could understand if things are explained clearly. And actually many here will have enough scientific knowledge or even expertise to understand

I wonder if they will say those who are elderly and with underlying health conditions should self isolate

I wonder how that will work for those poorer couples where one is OVER pension age and one is UNDER pension age given that those in this situation where the one OVER the age reached that age after 15th May last year now have to have Universal Credit

WTF will be the point of the older one self isolating if the younger one still has to attend JC appointments and/or the workplace etc.

Italy’s full numbers:

• Current cases: 10590 (+2076 since yesterday)
• Died: 827 (+196)
• Healed: 1045 (+41)
• Hospitalized in Intensive Care: 1028 (+151)
Total cases: 12,462 (+22,8%)

Does anyone have a link to the Italy day by day numbers. Not the graph.

A retired intensive care doctor claims the government plans to increase coronavirus testing are “way too late” after he and his friends were repeatedly refused test despite falling ill following an Austrian skiing trip.

See the Guardian. Terrifying.

We are being left to spread it through the whole population now. The health care service is on its knees. With a huge spike, the number of deaths will be much much higher than if the peak is managed.

Not only that but there will be a considerabe number of Non-CV deaths that would normally not happen beacuse some hospitals will
likely have no space for any patients requiring emergency treatment, if the plans on radio 4 about using theatres and recovery rooms as ITUs are correct.

@todayisnottuesday that just ridiculous to say that. you could say the same about the EU pledging money. im fed up of people wanting something from the government, the government pledging to do it and then people just saying oh they probably wont anyway, or i doubt that will happen.

You can find day by day numbers for Italy here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

With a huge spike, the number of deaths will be much much higher than if the peak is managed

I think we are going to accept it is inevitable, attempt to flatten the curve and cocoon the elderly and the chronically ill. There's logic to it, it's just counter to everyone else.

WHO chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the number of cases outside China had increased 13-fold over the past two weeks.
He said he was "deeply concerned" by "alarming levels of inaction" over the virus....He called on governments to change the course of the outbreak by taking "urgent and aggressive action".

"Several countries have demonstrated that this virus can be suppressed and controlled," he said.

"The challenge for many countries who are now dealing with large clusters or community transmission is not whether they can do the same - it's whether they will."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51839944

Didn't someone say things would be relaxed around having to attend the job centre for UC?

Ds is the only one without asthma in our house. If I have to self isolate then there's no one to take him to school and like pp said, what would be the point if they are acting as vector?

I hope this 7pm thing is worth waiting for! We need clear instructions. I can't do vague. My brain can't cope on any level with vague.