How can the UK gov or anyone read this and not put the UK on lockdown?

[UnderReview]

The NHS won't. and shouldn't have to, cope with this...

Travel should have been stopped. Borders closed. People put in to lockdown.

ICU Doctor from Italy on current situation

@AngelicaKauffman
Not complying with self quarantine at home would result in strict legal consequences such as transfer to a quarantine facility.
On a minor level- not wearing a mask, no admittance to public transport or supermarket.
Failure to disclose travel plans and not advising your compound that you are returning - no access to your home and quarantine arranged for you in quarantine facility.

We cannot do a full lockdown. The idea is to reduce the infection rate from about 2.2 to below one. If we get there, the disease will gradually die out.

It seems, positively, that there is little evidence of spread by asymptomatic patients. So sick people self isolating seems to be the way forwards. And continued contact tracing and isolation of contacts.

We cannot stop economic life but, on the other hand, a major epidemic would pretty much stop economic life anyway. There is a compromise position somewhere but I think that we are erring on the overly relaxed side.

I think China showed that anything can be done, but it won’t be pleasant. I have friends who, apart from a few shopping trips for food, have been stuck at home for 45 days. (Not Wuhan)

A Chinese friend says her family is only allowed out one hour a day and the elevators aren't working in high rise apartments.

It begs the question, what do people with very limited mobility and no family do :s

Probably not much @SeaEagleFeather

The Gov advises if we go for lockdown now (with the disease expected to last til mid June) then people will get fed up and be uncooperative, and the situation would rapidly get out of control at a time when spread is greatest. I for one would not confine myself to my home for 3 months.

I can't believe people are suggesting we should be the same as China! People there are used to having their lives controlled and have a very real fear of murder by the state if they don't comply. People in the UK simply wont tolerate that for more than a week or two, which is why the timing has to be right.

Im rather wondering if there will be a number of deaths from starvation / inaccess to vital medicines unrelated to Covid-19 :/

There will definitely be deaths due to the financial hardship any prolonged restrictions would cause. Plus elderly people not getting their regular visitors etc. I guess fewer road deaths though.

the Chinese govt has not let this crisis go to waste, what a great opportunity to increase and normalize digital social control

@ElderAve
What is happening in Italy is exactly the same thing that the Chinese did:
Telling people to stay at home
Closing restaurants, schools etc
Permits needed to travel between cities
These methods have worked and as cases increase all over Europe many countries will need to introduce similar measures.

(with the disease expected to last til mid June)

What does that mean?

I don't think a total lock down is needed yet but it's not all or nothing, a lot more can be done:

• Official govt advice asking employers to allow people to wfh who can. Dh works for a major bank and everyone still is going in every day, he could wfh but this hasn't been signed off yet.

-Grounding of planes coming in / out of countries worse affected than ours.

• Cancelling of major sporting / music events

• schools not closing but running a more skeleton curriculum, ie no gym / pe where everyone is using the same equipment again and again, no assemblies, children staying in the same classroom etc, staggered lunch times.

I get that this would dent the economy but it wouldn't ruin it, it would be more possible to ride that out than a full scale pandemic.

'With the disease expected to last til mid June)
What does that mean?'

It is probably referring to the epidemilogical evidence that if left unchecked infections double every 6 days so...
n England in the absence of any lock downs we can roughly expect

currently 324 cases
17th mar 648 cases
23rd mar 1296 cases
29th mar 2582 cases
4th april 5164 cases
10th april 10328 cases
16th april 20656 cases
22nd april 41312 cases
28th april 82614 cases
3rd may 165248 cases
10th may 340496 cases
16th may 660992 cases
22nd may 1.3 million cases
28th may 2.6 million cases
3rd june 5.2 million
9th june 10.4 million
15th june 20.8 million
21st june 41.6 million

Crazy,

I think those predictions are a bit wild. Firstly it is not left unchecked. Secondly, sick people take themselves permanently away from the future potentially infected, as they have immunity.

Also, hopefully, if we get a warm spring, the effects will be mitigated somewhat. I do think it will be bad, but not as dire as that.

Even with the UK’s minimal precautions at the moment, we are nothing like doubling on a six daily basis (hopefully).

You are right. We are nothing like doubling every six days at present. Over that period the multiple is above ten times currently.

Yes I am not suggesting this will be the outcome, I state above this is what will happen if there are no controls or lockdowns. In China the article states that cases doubled every 15 days. In England it will be somewhere between 6 and 15 days as our lockdown will not be so severe. However big numbers are still expected.

Unfortunately I don't think there is any evidence of seasonality in the virus although people being outside more in fresh air in less confined spaces should help.

Also you are right about the sick people taking themelves out of the potentially infected. Hopefully we should start to get a levelling off of cases like China did when we reach 100,000 or so.

As we aren't taking the measures China did (indeed, none at the moment) then why would it slow at some arbitrary figure?

Far better to look at the numbers hospitalised and how AE/wards cope.

China had a levelling off of cases due to strict control measures.

"Unfortunately I don't think there is any evidence of seasonality in the virus although people being outside more in fresh air in less confined spaces should help."

So a lockdown could make things worse?

Of course a lockdown will not make it worse!

The objective of a " lockdown" is to reduce contact between people. In Italy people can still go out if not sick but are very strongly advised not to gather up in any sort of groups. Supermarkets still open. And they advise it is ok to go for a walk or a run on the countryside for example. But not in groups.

How do those predicted numbers work out though if they are talking about a peak in a few weeks?

My nhs trust has cancelled leave. If the school closes (plus I’d assume playscheme), where are my children supposed to go? We don’t have family to help.