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worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 18

999 replies

usernameishistory · 09/03/2020 11:35

Next thread

previous thread here

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus. Please provide updated link if possible, I haven't been able to make this one work.

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

For research on CV and babies:
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761659

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

OP posts:
Thread gallery
15
MangePasTesOnglesVilain · 09/03/2020 20:44

Mention of schools here-it goes along with what was said today that several measures used together and well timed can work better than different strategies used in sequence reaction to events. Someone upthread mentioned the holy cheese analogy where the holes in each slice are covered by different holes in others, thus slowing spread. I'm not an expert at all, but I think it sounds like some sort of synergy. I was just interested to try to find the research base they are using. I've only done a quick google but this seems to be a meta analysis of several studies.

'Four strands of evidence emerged from the outbreak reports. First, they provided further evidence linking mass gatherings with influenza transmission. Second, the evidence suggests that crowd density and event duration may be the key characteristics of a mass gathering that determine the risk of influenza transmission. There is some new evidence that ships provide an example of a specialised setting that may be a risk factor for influenza outbreaks, particularly out of season. It is therefore argued that the mass gathering definition should be expanded to include civilian and military ships. Third, some evidence suggests that mass gatherings can be “seeding” events leading to the introduction of new strains of influenza into the host geographical area, or instigating community transmission in the early stages of a pandemic. Finally, evidence from the historical outbreak analyses suggests that, when implemented in combination with other social distancing interventions such as isolation measures and school closures, restriction of mass gatherings may significantly help to reduce influenza transmission. It was not possible to tease out from the data available any conclusive evidence on the individual effect of restriction of mass gatherings. However there was no new evidence to support hypotheses that restrictions can be effective at reducing influenza transmission in these settings'

Facingtheunkown · 09/03/2020 20:45

It will take at least a week for any travel changes to filter through

FlamingoAndJohn · 09/03/2020 20:46

I’ve got a cough and a cold now. It’ll be cleared up in 10 days. So what good is the advice to stay at home to me now!! I’ll be the only bugger who is fine and have to go to work.

ofwarren · 09/03/2020 20:47

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-whole-of-italy-put-on-lockdown-11954097
Whole of Italy on lockdown

Inmyownlittlecorner · 09/03/2020 20:47

@Ledkr & @ifonly4 my family are all in Cheltenham (my hometown) & my normally “I never get ill” Father (71) is genuinely worried about the races & is just intending to stay home as much as work will allow.

ofwarren · 09/03/2020 20:47

So surely that means we have to stop flights now?

WaterSheep · 09/03/2020 20:48

All Italy now in quarantine.

Not surprising given how many traveled south when the first quarantine news leaked.

FourTeaFallOut · 09/03/2020 20:48

It will take at least a week for any travel changes to filter through

Does it usually take that long?

keepmoving · 09/03/2020 20:48

Apologises not read much of this thread as just can't keep up!

Thought this may be of interest to C19 nerds like me. A lab looking at the genetic sequencing of the spread in the Uk to understand where the "gaps" in spread are and also why some succumb to more serious illness than others.

apple.news/A2eAkgMtOSN24KohZAjbZKQ

Speekachu · 09/03/2020 20:48

Atletico Madrid play Liverpool at Anfield on Wednesday with Real Madrid visiting the Etihad the week after.

7,000+ fans from the worst hit area of Spain, arriving in the North West.

Alone07 · 09/03/2020 20:49

I do understand more after watching the prime minister's speech.
There saying in 10-14 days when normal coughs and cold will be at the lower peak because of the time of year and covid19 will start rising then that's the time to isolate people with coughs and cold.
Because then it will be more likely to be covid19 then it is now.

FourTeaFallOut · 09/03/2020 20:49

Not surprising given how many traveled south when the first quarantine news leaked

That's going to be an epic walk of shame.

RhubarbTea · 09/03/2020 20:49

I dunno, I'm pretty surprised! That's a massive step. And makes the UK's response look ever more lame. I do realise they are ahead of us etc, but also - they are ahead of us! Boris is getting a sneak preview and it isn't pretty. Who oh why doesn't he do something now instead of dicking around?

TheGodWorm · 09/03/2020 20:50

In a lockdown situation, should it happen in the UK, would a runner be allowed to, say, do a 5 mile run? What about a cyclist? Do you think they could do an 80km bike ride? In both cases, by themselves.

usernameishistory · 09/03/2020 20:50

It is beyond me to understand why borders were not immediately shut to returners from China also.

Having said that information sharing was all shut down, and numbers coming out were not trusted as a result.

OP posts:
Facingtheunkown · 09/03/2020 20:51

Mange thanks for trying to distill that paper.

I feel like a rabbit in headlights Grin my brain is a ceasing to function.

I still can't understand why schools are allowed to be open though.

MangePasTesOnglesVilain · 09/03/2020 20:53

This is also a gov document about pandemic planning which sounds similar to the strategy today.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/213696/dhh_133656.pdf
Mass Gatherings
5.13 There is also very little evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings or on internal travel arrangements will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness.
School Closures
5.14 It is unlikely that widespread school closures will be required except in a very high impact pandemic. The benefit of school closure would be undermined if children mix socially outside of the school environment. In addition, the impact on other organisations caused by absence of parents from key occupations due to child care needs may also be detrimental. However, specific local business continuity reasons (staff shortages or particularly vulnerable children) may lead to individual or local school closures.
5.15 Local Directors of Public Health may advise localised closures in specific circumstances (individual schools or catchment areas, and in special schools with particularly vulnerable children) to reduce the initial spread of infection locally whilst awaiting more information about the spread of the virus. Head teachers and their Boards of Governors will take the ultimate decision to close individual schools temporarily.
11
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States

WouldShouldCould · 09/03/2020 20:54

@TheGodWorm no, you'd have to do laps of the kitchen.

BookMeOnTheSudExpress · 09/03/2020 20:55

The PM is speaking now and measures are being extended with people being encouraged to go out for essential reasons, like work and shopping. Trains will run. Planes will fly. Travel between regions will be more closely monitored.

cakemeupbeforeyougogo · 09/03/2020 20:55

Schools have been now closed in Madrid until 23/03 I've just been told

Facingtheunkown · 09/03/2020 20:56

@speeko

7000 fans to the North West Shock

Liverpool?

BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2020 20:58

The governor of New York has announced:

  • the head of the port authority of New York and New Jersey - who runs New York's airports - has tested positive for coronavirus,

  • the total cases in New York State is 142
    "We continue to expect more positive cases as we test."

hoovermyrug · 09/03/2020 20:58

Er @godworm and what would happen if you got run over or had an accident? Daft question