The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus. Please provide updated link if possible, I haven't been able to make this one work.

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

OP posts:

Thread gallery

Furfockssake · 09/03/2020 07:55

I will see if I can find the report again from the Professor who said our doubling rate was every two days.

Newjez · 09/03/2020 07:56

The numbers are very relevant as the government will change their response to deal with any spikes in numbers. I would expect similar reactions to France and Germany as we move up to a thousand cases, and then similar reactions to South Korea and Italy as we move into the multi thousands. This will be happening soon, and the effects will affect people. If you are forwarned that restrictions are going to be applied where you live, then you will be better prepared for them. Two weeks isn't a long time.

Cam77 · 09/03/2020 07:57

Still flights arriving from Milan and elsewhere in Italy. Whereas apparently flights from East Asia have been stopped for weeks. I’m struggling to see any logic whatsoever in the way this is being handled. Not just in the UK, but also across Europe. In Ireland St. Patrick’s day parade next week is yet to be cancelled, much to the horror of the vast majority of medical professionals. If this virus ends up killing large numbers of people, we may well see governments being sued for criminal negligence.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2020 07:57

Yep, Prof Ferguson estimates also that the real death rate in China was only 1%

It automatically reduces the number of deaths when the undetected cases are estimated - he uses statistical analysis

Sir Patrick, Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government, told Sky News:

"We've got a reasonable worst-case scenario... that involves 80 per cent of the population
and we think the mortality rate is one per cent or lower.
I expect it to be less than that."

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/coronavirus-uk-total-cases-jumps-up-to-163/06/03/

HasaDigaEebowai · 09/03/2020 07:57

Look everyone - can we just ignore those who are arguing about the existence/nature of the thread. If you join in the argument it continues and these threads fill up fast enough without having to read hundreds of posts about only being allowed to post factually verified statements. The posters concerned are never going to be persuaded to change their view so just ignore completely and don't engage.

Sizeablecontours · 09/03/2020 07:57

Did anyone just hear the radio 5 live interview with a senior hospital consultant in Lombardy? He said he has 30- and 40-year olds in his ICU and that it's a myth that only the elderly are affected and that other countries should take note.

HasaDigaEebowai · 09/03/2020 07:59

Still flights arriving from Milan and elsewhere in Italy. I think the Milan flights are mainly to allow people to leave at the moment. There are thousands of tourists still in these areas.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2020 07:59

@pussycatinboots Please stay.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2020 08:03

Personally, I wish that all school trips abroad could be cancelled

it is a far easier step to take than closing schools

fezzesarecool · 09/03/2020 08:04

What time is the Cobra meeting today and when can we expect a update on what’s been discussed please?

JayDot500 · 09/03/2020 08:05

@BigChocFrenzy yes! Then there wouldn't be the added uncertainty upon what is already uncertain.

pussycatinboots · 09/03/2020 08:05

OK, I'll stay - I have questions:

Hasa I think the Milan flights are mainly to allow people to leave at the moment. There are thousands of tourists still in these areas.

Isn't this why there are massive issues with returnees from Italy already (not just in the uk)?
Self-isolation isn't going to work completely. Some will believe it doesn't apply to them

BCF have you a link to the Prof Ferguson comments? - I've watched all his documentaries on CH4 in the past and am really interested in his opinions.

Butterwhy · 09/03/2020 08:06

@Sizeablecontours do they have underlying health issues? I may have interpreted it wrong, but isn't the risk rising with age due to an increased likelihood of having underlying conditions, rather than the age itself? If that makes sense!

HeyPizza · 09/03/2020 08:07

Apparently there are no checks being done on those returning from Italy to the UK.

I don't really understand why the government appear to be quite relaxed about this to date - we can see what is happening in Italy, why do we think the same wouldn't happen here?

Or could it be that the hospitals aren't seeing any severe cases or respiratory failure, so they don't think we'll get it as bad? In other words, perhaps they think the NHS is coping fine currently and we have plenty of capacity ... so we'll deal with it if and when it happens? Seems naive to me.

ofwarren · 09/03/2020 08:08

www.westerntelegraph.co.uk/news/18290007.pembrokeshires-first-coronavirus-case-confirmed/?ref=twtrec
Pembrokeshire's first coronavirus case confirmed

AvocadoOwl · 09/03/2020 08:09

I'm not sure what time the meeting is but last week it must have happened in the morning as there was an update around lunchtime/early afternoon iirc.

This is a positive story pasted from the bbc feed this morning:
*
Wuhan starts to shut down makeshift hospitals*
At least 11 of the 16 makeshift hospitals in the Chinese virus epicentre of Wuhan have been able to close, reported state media outlet Xinhua.
The makeshift hospitals - in stadiums, schools, and elsewhere - treated patients who suffered from mild symptoms.
It comes as the number of new coronavirus cases in China has steadily decreased - China reported its lowest number of cases so far on Monday.

Quartz2208 · 09/03/2020 08:09

I think people latch onto things and take it a step further.

Children not being affected and only the elderly affected after exaggerated myths based on the truth that children get a mild form and the elderly get out worse.

This doesn’t mean 30/40 year old aren’t affected just less so that the older age range

Italy figures are different to South Korea and Singapore so yes I think there are cases not captured

ofwarren · 09/03/2020 08:09

Staff member at University hospital Southampton tests positive . Statement. #COVID19 t.co/y3wFbOAXqM t.co/poKY9c2Ns5

Lynatic · 09/03/2020 08:11

Sizeablecontours do you remember his name

Cam77 · 09/03/2020 08:11

@BigChocFrenzy
Yes, its quite possible the number infected in China is/was much closer to 800,000 than 80,000. That the Chinese government has been controlling the official figures is almost a certainty. We just don’t know to what degree. As someone who has many contacts in China and has been following this closely, I’d stab at it being at least three times the official figure. So yes, the fatality rate could be just around 1%. But that doesn’t solve the problem of how to stop transmission without full blown quarantine/shutting down the whole economy for two months as they did in China. Left unchecked, half the country could get infected - that’s the message that came out of Ireland yesterday, which no official has been willing to dispute. Suddenly, 1% seems very big, and of course another 10% minimum on top that will be needing hospital beds. In the UK Until infection rate start going down rather than up/and or a vaccine is found this needs to be treated as a massive crisis.

Eeyoresstickhouse · 09/03/2020 08:12

130bn wiped off the ftse in minutes of opening. If the government think they are helping the economy they need to rethink.

HasaDigaEebowai · 09/03/2020 08:12

Isn't this why there are massive issues with returnees from Italy already (not just in the uk)?
Self-isolation isn't going to work completely. Some will believe it doesn't apply to them

Agree completely. You only have to read the boards on MN to see that everyone thinks they're an exception and even those who say they will isolate seem to think its ok to go for a run, walk the dog and go out for a drive

Sizeablecontours · 09/03/2020 08:12

I thought that was the case too Butterwhy but It wasn't very clear to me from the interview, which is the reason I posted. I just wondered what other people took from it tbh.

Can you listen back in the UK? (I'm abroad.)

Orangeblossom78 · 09/03/2020 08:13

It used to be updated at 2pm, but says it has been changed to 7am? From 7 March,

(cut and paste)

7 March 2020
Update on stats and switch to 7am to improve reporting

Since then they have been updating it in the morning

Sizeablecontours · 09/03/2020 08:14

I'll have a dig Lynatic. He sounded v credible.

Flip

1 2 ··· 27 28 29 ··· 39 40