worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 17

[usernameishistory]

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Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus. Please provide updated link if possible, I haven't been able to make this one work.

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

If someone says "I think" hen that is surely obvious it is an opinion and not fact, we aren't stupid, it is a bit patronising to say people will think that is a fact.

orange I think that is tests performed. It used to be tests performed and results in by 9am and they changed it to 7am.

I heard that too and that they mostly don't have underlying issues

Latest update:

▫️110,110 cases (+3,645 in 24h)
▫️43,923 active (+1,288 in 24h)
▫️5,977 critical
▫️37,946 mild
▫️62,356 recoveries (+2,126 in 24h)
▫️3,831 deaths (+231 in 24h)
▫️109 countries (+6 in 24h)
▫️3.5% CFR (+0.1%)

Source: Worldometers

@Sizeablecontours it's interesting anyway, and it might make the I'll be alright because im not vulnerable groups take it a bit more seriously and follow guidance.

Does anyone else feel here that whatever measures are brought into the UK in the future, it will always be reactive 'shutting the door after the horse has bolted'? I've been watching it unfold on reddit since January.

I think we are already far too late. OH is a student and was at uni to one of areas needing to be deep cleaned, said it didn't even appear clean. She was also out at the weekend with someone who has spent a month travelling around the Far East and only home a few days ago. As they are only secondary areas, no self isolation just watch out for symptoms, she was out at a big event. I've kind of resigned myself to getting it which may not be bad for me although I'm not spring chicken and an ex smoker so who knows, but I have family and friends in the at risk group.

I suppose the powers that be just have to rely on most people doing the right thing, regarding self-isolation. Of course there will be those who refuse to comply or just think it doesn't apply to them, or they'll "just pop out to the shops" etc.

In Italy I heard (heard - note, from someone on the spot) that two people have been caught - who are diagnosed - out and about. One was skiing. Apparently he is being prosecuted.

With the lockdown/quarantine of towns in Italy, apparently masses of people managed to get out - to their holiday homes or south Italy to relatives - which has not pleased the authorities in some of these places as it will undoubtedly spread the virus and a lot of seaside/more rural areas do not have large hospital provision.

bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Not to want to increase the worry, but having again checked the figures of all countries excluding China, the “possibly less than 1%” estimate looks rather optimistic. The only country that would back such an optimistic outlook would be Singapore which is somehow doing incredibly (90 full recoveries so far, with zero deaths, and minimal numbers listed as critical). Explanation? One of the worlds top health systems perhaps. City state, easily managed and controlled perhaps. Culturally cautious and health conscious mentality, and well educated populace perhaps. I don’t know. But the current breakdown of figures (deaths, recovered, serious, active) virtually everywhere else do not suggest to me a 1% fatality rate, more like 3%+

Reading so many comments online and on other threads on here that are still stating "it's just like a bad cold/flu, media hype, and someone who has said even if I thought I had it I wouldn't tell anyone or self isolate, as we dont bother with flu. This is why it will spread, people just can't take on board what experts are saying, and even if they do they are not worried as they think as they will be fine ,so why bother being inconvenienced even if it could protect someone else.

We've missed the containment boat, we're on the delay strategy now.

While I think we're woefully late in terms of reducing movement and gatherings, I'm confident behind the scenes preparation is being made for whatever comes next.

Private companies are working on remote working strategies, hospitals are working on expanding HDU space, people are looking at supply chains and stock taking. The prep is being done, even if not being advertised.

I'ts just that it's going to be a rocky ride now, even with prep.

I based that above on assessing the worldometers data - happy to be corrected if wrong. My fear is China may have underreported the number of deaths as well as overall cases, and that many cases only become classed as “serious” a week or two after detection - is overtime more “active” cases will become “serious”, as we see in, for example, Italy.

Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has said "But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase"

I wonder if that will change after today's meetings.

Cam could it also be that the more you test, the more very mild/non-symptomatic cases you detect? If it's possible to have it, but not know/think it's a cold, then those cases wouldn't be tested routinely. This would reduce the overall death rate, wouldn't it?

@Cam77 the 1% figure takes into account a potentially large number of undetected mild cases that don't get diagnosed and included in official numbers.

@pussycatinboots I can't find the original video lecture at Imperial, but the video & charts are also here:

moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/50-000-new-coronavirus-infections-per-day-in-china-xXGk0yLLHk-vflt-E0fD-w

He predicted China cases to peak in March and then drop, as we have seen

CMO days ago states we are partially in contain and partially in delay.

See video in OP

CMO - Chief Medical Officer

cam77 The sub-1% death rate, which UK public health & science chiefs have also quoted,
comes from the fact that there are many more cases than are reported - presumably much milder ones
Mathemematically, this reduces the death rate

I think we should trust the top professionals in the field and they are saying 1% or below

The FTSE fall will certainly get the government's attention, and rightly so. It shows that the markets are not buying the 'only fluists' line.

The idea of stretching and flattening the curve so that the peak is lower and the wave of illness is slower is good for the NHS. It also should result in fewer deaths.

However for business, a longer period of disruption is worse.

@Sizeablecontours I wasn't listening to the radio programme but that corresponds with info in this Independent article linked earlier.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html

'In an alarming development, Dr Nattino said younger patients were being affected, saying the ages of patients ranged from 46 to 83 with only a small number having important underlying conditions.

He added: “The last days are showing a younger population involved as if the elderly and weaker part of the population crashed early and now younger patients, having exhausted their physiological reserves, come to overcrowded, overwhelmed hospitals with little resources left.”'

thanks BCF, if you do stumble over the lecture, please let me know

That isn't minimising things
In my age group, reducing the death rate x 3 still leaves a worrying risk - hell, 1% is worrying

Interesting day ahead, stock markets are in free fall around the world, Oil prices crashing, the price of gold keeps rising, all the signs of a very big problem.

Hopefully we see some significant actions taken by the government over the coming few days. I would like to see large gatherings of 1000+ stopped today ideally.

Oil prices slashed by a third announced on BBC this morning, that in itself is going to massively impact economies

But its going to help bouy up economies too...was the comment as business enjoy cheaper fuel to run on increasing profit margins.for example.