worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 17

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Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus. Please provide updated link if possible, I haven't been able to make this one work.

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

Particularly as, from what I understand, testing is still fairly restricted and has to be related to having travelled or being in contact with someone who has.

Or even every 2 days

bear just strange though that other people have read it, but because you haven’t you think it’s not true. Your prerogative but you’d be surprised at how many very intelligent people lurk on these threads who are more than capable of working out whether something being reported comes from an authoritative source. Try not to be so condescending.

todayisnottuesday Sorry, only just seen your response to my post. Yep, staffing issues will have an impact on the use of NEWS 2, no doubt about that.
What I was trying to get across about CAP and HAP is that even with the potential for treatment , the mortality rate is high in the elderly who have comorbidities. So you would expect this same group to be disproportionately effected by this virus. I didn't make that clear, sorry.
So if you have any reason to suspect you could be incubating the virus , it makes sense to limit contact with this group where possible and rigorously follow good hygiene if it is unavoidable.

orange they are updated at 2PM (ish) for the figures up to 7am that day. Not updated at 7am.

BBC news yesterday had someone on who said they will possible double numbers every 3-4 days. I don't know if this is right but we shall see in the coming days and weeks.

Posters do provide links to trusted expert sources when they are updated .

what benefit is there in talking about what could or might happen when it’s only ‘opinion’

If it helps people to talk about it then I see no reason to stop them. If it turns out to be less then time will show their opinion to be incorrect.

Also I thought figures were a few days behind due to waiting on test results, if this is the case then the numbers will be higher than currently shown.

I heard that too Fur .
That is just hearsay . Or fakenews.

When someone shows you who they are believe them .
Peach 🍑.

Let's keep to expert opinion.
Public health experts have stated that reports are probably underestimating cases, but that is usual for any epidemic

e.g. Prof Neil Ferguson, Imerial College London (epidemiologist)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NeilFergusonn_(epidemiologist)

"Ferguson and his team estimated that detected cases of COVID-199^ have significantly underestimated the actual spread of the disease in China.
[21][22][23] In an interview released by Imperial College, he estimated that only 10% of cases were being detected in China.[23]
.....
In the same month, the BBC Newsws^ reported that Ferguson calculates that only one in three cases coming into the UK was being detected* [24]

just strange though that other people have read it, but because you haven’t you think it’s not true.

It’s not strange at all - it’s called validating facts. Unlike some, I prefer not to rely on hearsay

If it’s true then there would be evidence to support it

The reality is the virus is not doubling daily for extended periods (ie, beyond the first few days) anywhere else in the world so to extrapolate numbers based on it doing so here is not helpful

 1 new death in the UK: a man in his 60s with existing conditions and who had recently traveled to Italy

Did someone already post this? Does anyone have anymore details?

Wiki and Imperial list Prof Taylor's lqualifications and experience of working on orevious epidemics around the world

We all know there is a 2 week incubation period. We know they are only testing people with symptoms who are back from the handful of affected areas.

I find it more worrying that people blindly stick to the ‘there’s only 25 cases in London so no need to be concerned’

We’ve seen there’s community spread, we know that the figures and test results are delayed by a few days. We can’t possibly have the true figure on this yet.

So I think saying ‘oh there’s only 25 cases in London, you’re just as likely to be struck by lightning’ is the same as saying ‘oh there’s thousands of cases’ We don’t know but we can look at how it has panned out in other countries (who have taken more serious measures) and work it out for ourselves
somewhat.i don’t think that’s scaremongering. The experts are very worried.

@pussycatinboots don't go, your contribution is valid and welcome. We had 15 threads with no problems. Threads where there was information, opinion and comfort for those needing it. They have had a nice community feel to them as so few people are talking about this IRL.

Like others have said @Bearbehind, your role is not to monitor the thread for inaccuracies. We’re all capable adults, many on here probably more intelligent than you. We don’t need your help, but understand it’s well intentioned.

No need to leave pussycat

I haven’t got the time or the inclination to post on here anymore today

I’ll just leave those who feel the need to wildly speculate to continue do so and remain baffled as to what they get out of it

I'm a big girl, as are many on this thread and mumsnet as a whole.

At the end of the day we at all randoms on the Internet chatting.

No one could be who they say they are or where from they say they are from.

This is the Internet. This is what you get.
By your logic we should be challenging everything, demanding to see passports, proof of of address. Someone says they are a medic, we need proof.

Then we need to boringly break down to you what we do or don't believe so you can check us off. Only you it seems has been blessed with critical thinking skills. We need managing and saving from false information by you?

Because you don't see in print every post called out. I've just had an idea.

Why not have your own, corna facts thread? The truth? Then instead of the more chatty tone of these threads which have happily got to Thread 16 without your intervention?

I think the general expectation is that we will only capture 10% of community transmission cases because the assumption is that there is this iceberg effect. So when people talk about the CFR being far too high they say this is because we don't capture 90% of cases. Which is why some people suspect that there are many more cases that we don't know about to the order of ten. (Although, I think they have included all the imported cases and their contacts which are often asymptomatic or mild and might not have been captured under normal circumstances)

We either have, on global terms (not the UK, specifically) either a very high CFR of 3.4% or a very high number of un-captured cases - so it could be argued that the poster who believes there are 1000 unknown cases is a natural optimist and not a scaremonger.

I hope pp have read Prof Taylor's statement about the number of undetected cases - he is an epidemiology expert

So it is not wild exaggeration to speculate that the number of cases has been seriously underestimated:
it is just quoting expert opinion

WHO have a lot of useful information on their website about experiential growth - as a whole, cases outside China are doubling every four days. Also, interestingly, also mentioned on their website is the fact there’s a cognitive bias against exponential growth as the figures are so enormous, people apparently prefer to think in terms of linear growth even when the facts suggest otherwise.

I think if you are making a statement about figures rising or something that’s been quoted, you need to provide a link, of your evidence for saying this. I could see ofwarren was attempting to do this and most others.

If it’s your opinion, or your thoughts, that’s fine too, along with your worries etc. this is a conversation after all, but saying ‘some Professor said’’ is not helpful, unless you can back it up.

At least then we can check things out ourselves, I know I do and some articles are very obviously not a good source of information. And I refuse to click on anything from the ☀️. 😳

I would however like to thank those who have done their own stats and predictions, based on trajectories and shown them, that has been very interesting.

They also mention on the website that many unreported cases are to be expected.