Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

Far better to keep all of the schools open and check temperatures twice a day

How would that even happen? Checking the temperatures of 1000 kids (average sized secondary) would take a lot of time, staff and thermometers. Most secondary schools do not have the resources to do that. I work in a private school with a full time school nurse - even we couldn't manage it!

Sorry attached wrong photo

Similar scaremongering here but in end 426 died

Schools will eventually have to close.
Teachers will be off, so the children they teach will join the classes of teachers who are still at work.
More children in one room = more chance of the virus spreading, and whilst the children may not be affected, that teacher will be more exposed to it and may also have to have time off.

The class sizes get even larger and the chance of the unfortunate teacher who is still in work teaching 50 children squashed into one room catching the virus increases even more.

Keeping schools open when the situation worsens will be detrimental to the health of adults in school.

If we close schools you have to close everywhere really. Children at school are less likely to be in contact with old ill people. If they are out and about then they will be more likely to mix with vulnerable people. Unless everywhere closes. So massive economy problem
It's not as simple as just saying close schools, it will have a huge knock on effect. That's before you even worry about who's going to look after the children.

H1N1 turned out to be milder than initially feared, causing little more than runny noses and coughs in most people. And H1N1 is now so commonplace, it’s simply seen as a part of theseasonal flus that come and goevery year around the globe.

Oops, I forgot the quotation marks, the text is copied and pasted. The video explains how the new form of coronavirus is different.

First case of swine flu in UK = 27 April 2009
1000 cases confirmed by 14 June
1st death in UK from swine flu = 14 June
gap = 49 days

First case of covid19 announced in UK = 31 January 2020
116 cases in UK by 5 March
First death in Uk from covid19 = 5 March
gap = 34 days

Different.

CV could also end the same - both started off predicting massive number of deaths

The rise in the UK is nowhere near the same as Italy. Both got their first case on 31/1/20 but Italy’s numbers are massively more than UK

You can make up any worse case scenario you like, if you're the Daily Mail. The virus could mutate and kill the lot of us. It probably won't though - killing your host is a bad tactic and most viruses mutate to become less deadly, not more.

Based on the South Korean experience, and adjusting for their population being about 20% smaller than ours and with a slightly smaller percentage over 65 - and allowing for the fact that, although their infection rate is slowing, more people will still die - we can probably expect 150-200 deaths in the UK. I expect more people to die from non-CV-19 illnesses due to the NHS being overwhelmed than to die of CV 19 itself. That's why it's really important that people calm the fuck down and don't start panicking and tying up resources.

Point I’m making is the press predicated mass deaths and it never happened

Yes, we might be spared the thrust of swine flu like the Iranians the Chinese and the Italians because we are super special.

@Sunshine1239 because it’s not the same virus, more easily transmissible than previous outbreaks, also quite deadly, and were already moving to the delay phase as very little chance now of containing it. The Government are working on a worst case scenario of 80% of the population getting it - it would take less than a quarter of the population catching it for 100,000 to die.

Plus our health care is much superior to other countries and we don’t live in such proximity than say China for instance

Bollck, of course I mean coronavirus.

Well our numbers haven’t increased exponentially like those countries so we must be doing something different

Both us and Italy got it on same day yet Italys is 5x us and rising much more quickly

That’s not alarmist, it’s maths. And that’s working on a 1% fatality rate rather than the 3.4% rate quoted currently by the WHO

@Sunshine1239 our healthcare is possibly superior but already stretched. China built hospitals from scratch, contained the virus where it was by locking in and isolation millions of people and apparently pulled in doctors and nurses from all over China and thousands of people
still died. We don’t have that capacity, are not likely to lock anything down, and don’t have thousands of spare doctors and nurses to draft in, although there are apparently plans to draft in 3 million volunteers

South Korea's health care is much more superior to ours actually, and they have a ton of very low paid immigrant labour that can clean and disinfect streets, stations etc.

@Sunshine1239 our numbers are increasing, not exponentially but are doubling every 3/4 days as expected.

Besides so in 6 weeks we got 1000 cases of swine flu compared to 200 odd of CV

I know they’re not same but these ‘worst case’ figures are sprouted each time and always wrong! We can’t conpare to China at all as totally different lifestyles, healthcare etc

As in they are not doubling every day, but growth is what scientists predicted

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom

Rising but nowhere near the rates of Italy given same time period

It’s not just closing schools and nurseries though, is it? If you close primary schools and nurseries, a huge number of workers who rely on them for childcare can’t go to work. So those offices/shops/factories/clinics/whatever might not be able to be staffed and might well have to close too.

I would think we will almost certainly be somewhere near 1000 cases by the end of next week. If you look at the figures for France they are a few days ahead of us in terms of the growth, but we are following their pattern of increase

Even if you shut schools the virus will spread. If you are on a zero hours contract why would you self isolate? In general, humans aren't really that altruistic. A lot of people won't follow the self isolation rules - it's part of human nature.

I live in London and the tubes and buses are as full as ever at peak travel times. So we all stand packed in like sardines, potentially spreading the virus. Closing schools won't stop that.

This mass hysteria is rather depressing.