Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

So we could potentially have 1500+ in the UK cases by mothers day?

*cases in the UK by

I don't know how the Italians test, but in the UK I think they only test if you have travelled from an affected country or you are recommended to be tested by 111 as you have had direct contact- so by now, the half-term glut of travellers affected have either got it or not, so there will be a slowing down in tested cases (not in community transmission but no-one is testing for that yet are they? symptomatic people but who can't identify a source?)

I don't think the countries all use the same test and I don't think they test the same populations which is why their rates all look v different, or that's one reason anyway.

China’s healthcare is rated 144th by WHO

@Sunshine1239 Italy is maybe an anomaly, discount figures from US as they’re not testing anywhere near enough people, other countries all rising at what appear to be similar rates. No reason to believe number of cases will fall - judging by WHO and government responses - and if they do start to fall it would be because of the enormous economic sacrifices countries are taking to lock down huge portions of their populations

That’s not alarmist, it’s maths

No one knows the true denominator, so any figures are speculative, but the South Korean ones are the most reliable, simply because they have tried to include asymptomatic infections.

Yes I agree schools need to close now. I'm considering keeping my DC off but fear the penalties

The death rate is hard to predict too given so many people could have no or mild symptoms

Half my workplace is suffering with sore throats and coughs but haven’t travelled so nhs111 say it’s normal winter bugs

The % mortality could be much lower by time mild infections included

@DameHannahRelf France are at pretty much 1000 cases as of yesterday, haven’t seen any figures from them today. about two weeks ago they only had 20 cases. I imagine today they’ll have a few hundred new cars? So reckon we’ll be following pretty much what is happening there?

Those of you who wants schools closed, read this, taken from the BBC website.

The social impact of the virus across Asia is disproportionately affecting women.

On International Women's Day, here's a look at five ways women are bearing the brunt of the upheaval:

1. School closures

The start of the new school year has been postponed by two weeks in South Korea, meaning children will not return to class until 23 March.

As of 4 March, more than 253 million children in South Korea, China and Japan who would normally attend pre-primary to upper-secondary classes were not attending school, according to Unesco's latest figures.

1. Domestic violence

Activists have reported an increase in the number of instances of domestic violence in China since the outbreak as parts of the country are under quarantine.

1. Frontline care workers

Women form 70% of workers in the health and social sector, according to the World Health Organization.

In addition to this, women's menstruation needs are being overlooked, according to the Coronavirus Sister Support campaign, which is trying to deliver feminine hygiene products to frontline workers in China's Hubei province.

1. Migrant domestic helpers

It is estimated that about 400,000 women work as domestic staff in Hong Kong.

Concerns are growing among this group about their precarious work status, as well as their ability to find protective items.

1. Longer term economic impact

The global economy could grow at its slowest rate since 2009 because of the outbreak, according to economists and governments.

Low income women tend to work in hospitality, retail and other services, meaning they are particularly affected by the slowdown.

France had 613 cases yesterday according to the WHO
www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200307-sitrep-47-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=27c364a4_4

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300403
Looks like there is already a petition for this online

Francs had 285 cases on the 4th March, so took 4 days from there to get to 1,000 cases.

All the above are social impacts of men treating women like slaves.

We should not have a system where women are not safe in their own homes because of men, we should not have a system where only women care for children, take low paid care jobs and domestic jobs.

That’s why feminism matters.

Francs had 285 cases on the 4th March, so took 4 days from there to get to 1,000 cases.
No, because according to the WHO they are at 613 cases

@ListeningQuietly think that 7th March WHO report was actually reporting on confirmed cases from the 6th as it has UK down as 167 cases

Could you link to your better figures ?

France is at 949. The most up to date figures are from John Hopkins - link

given so many people could have no or mild symptoms

Could have, maybe, but we don't know. I think it's very dangerous to assume there's a whole load of people who have no or mild symptoms and some of the earliest people testing positive e.g. on cruise ships had no symptoms for weeks and then got quite ill.

Until this is proven, we should act in a precautionary way.

Chief scientist of the WHO:
twitter.com/doctorsoumya/status/1236378362886660096?s=21

@HasaDigaEebowai I made this point in a thread yesterday and the whole thread got promptly deleted

The schools will be closing, people need to accept that and prepare. The government may put in measures for the children of medics but apart from that there will be no "coronavirus" holiday clubs.
Now might be the time to ask for help from friends and relatives.

If France is at 949, that's over 200 new cases, in a day?

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

They have tested and confirmed people who’ve had no symptoms and still havent - the cruise ship husband for example

As for closing schools it really does have to be last resort

There children from poorer families who get free school meals, food on arrival etc who will all need supporting at home

Many low income will struggle if it goes on long term

What about all the kids sitting exams etc?

Now might be the time to ask for help from friends and relatives.
And back in the real world