worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 16

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Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

I don't feel any of the party leaders are any way capable
I'd have far more confidence in Blair or Major, even in Thatcher

However, they have advice from public health & science officials,
which hopefully they won't be too stupid to ignore

I still know so many people that are in denial about this whole situation.

@kateandme
If people take strict measures (self isolate, social distance, hygiene regimes) it will push the peak to the future, it will be a very short peak (weeks).

Planning already in placd, from what I've read, to use separate facilities, build/repurpose new, and draw imcreased staffing levels from.recently retired, etc to use as specialists to free up the more recently trained specialists for covid-19

Worst case is always if things go wrong and if measures are not taken

but yes, let's ignore the experts and listen to Trump & co

We are meant to be going to New York in 10 days time. I have a feeling we won’t be going. I’m bearing between thinking that we will be fine with extra hand washing etc but also what happens if we find ourselves unable to leave? We have two late teens at home and even though I’m sure they’d be fine I don’t want to leave them for over two weeks.

The Tories are just thinking about money as usual. Hence not closing schools.

@MsSafina

Wish it was that simple

How does it help anyone to watch videis of anyone on life support, sick.

Yep, whatever else:
this is not simple

I think the 80% is based upon no-one having any immunity. Once 80% catch a virus, they act as a firewall meaning it cannot reach the remaining 20%. I think it's based on the same figures as the amount of people needing to be inoculated to provide herd immunity for the ones who are unable to be inoculated.

However, I will happily admit that I am literally just making that up as a reasonable sounding explanation, based on what I've picked up about virology over the last couple of weeks. I would hope, however, that the people using it to drive their models are not just making things up willy nilly, though I imagine in a scenario like this, a fair amount of making it up as you go along is par for the course, as we don't have a comparable epidemic to handily compare this to.

I'm just going to watch Dr John Campbells video today. Has anyone else on here who follows him thought - when is he going to change and wash his crag hoppers fleece? He's been wearing it every day for ages now.

Either he isn't actually that bothered about infection and cleanliness as he leads us to believe. Or he has 3 identical fleeces to wear one, wash one, dry one.

GERMANY— Number of #coronavirus cases hits 1000, with 200 new cases annouced today.

A region of the Netherlands has asked everyone with cold and flu symptoms (regardless of travel history) to self isolate at home.

The difference with swine flu is that we got a vaccine pretty quick and vaccinated thousands (I vaccinated a fair few myself) and therefore prevented many deaths. We already had flu vaccines and it wasn't such a massive stretch to develop a vaccine for swine flu. There's no vaccine for coronaviruses although they did develop but never use ones for SARS. So we are starting from scratch pretty much. The two situations are not comparable.

Are there any people in serious or critical condition in the UK? I see other countries do report those figures. Are we just not reporting or haven't had any (or I've missed them)

I think that Italian ITU video is horrible and intrusive. It’s also quite hard to tell age or medical history from a shot of someone’s torso.

what happens if we find ourselves unable to leave?

I was stuck in ny after 911.
it was bloody expensive, extra hotels, work lost, etc. and nothing to do as, unsurprisingly, all attractions were closed. that was only a week, as our airline re-booked us on the next available flight, you would possibly look at longer than that with a quarantine situation.

@nellodee now this is something we agree on, that everyone can have their opinions but in all honestly nobody knows [including experts] what will happen which is why previous pandemics have never lived up to the hype etc..

My personal opinion is that this will be the same and worldwide i would be shocked if there were over a million deaths from it. However other people can also have their own opinion.

I guess including myself as i am guilty of it too no one should try and force their opinion on anyone else as none of us know how this is going to play out.

liverpoolexpress.co.uk/coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-liverpool/
One more case has been confirmed in Liverpool, bringing the total to four.

Chipotle ah see what you mean.

ohwarren a thank you from me for your continued updates. 👍

Completely my own opinion:

Even in Italy, they probably are not going to get near 100,000 deaths
< crosses fingers >
The virus would run out of elderly people before then

However, the hospitals there are being overwhelmed

• and they started with far more beds & doctors per 1,000 population than the NHS does

The political reaction in any Western country to hundreds or thousands of people dying over a period of weeks because there were not enough e.g. ventilators

could be savage
.... especially if the govt and its supporters have been minimising the seriousness of the crisis

Imagine the frantic family members going on TV and social media to say their mum / dad / gran is dying - or has already died - because there are no ventilators or ICU beds

New York State reports 16 new cases of coronavirus.

A total of 105 cases, including 12 in NYC.

@Bercows just out of interest why is this one taking so long. they say they already have a vaccine but it is the trials etc and mass producing that will take the time. surely with swine flu the same trials and mass producing methods would have been needed regardless of how long it actually took them to come up with the vaccine? genuinely interested in this one!

The flu fatality rate is 0.1% in a moderate flu season (from CMO)

CV-19 is, on current data, between 0.3-1% at most (also from CMO)

I find it interesting that of the UK's 253 active cases of Covid19, apparently none of them are in a serious or critical condition. (According to worldometers

I wonder if this is true, or if for some reason our data isn't included. It would obviously be great if it were true, but according to statistics (which I know are never spot on for individual cases/countries) we should have about 50 serious/critical cases.