worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 16

[usernameishistory]

Next thread

previous thread here

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

It is the 20% of infected people needing hospitalisation that makes this a crisis,
especially the 6-7% who will die without ventilators

Unless only a very small % of the population catch this - e.g. far below 1% in China - even the best health service would be totally overwhelmed
and most of the critical cases would just die

Slowing transmission means increasing numbers of those already having developed immunity.

Increasing herd immunity, decreases CV-19 hold on the population.

Break the cycle, wash hands, keep away from others, you will not know if you are infectious, as unlike SARS you are infectious before symptoms appear, and wgilst symptomatic.

Or he has 3 identical fleeces to wear one, wash one, dry one.

Or he bungs it in the machine when he gets home and it dries overnight. But yeah. Who actually does that EVERY day?

Just returned to this thread after viewing YouTube (I don't do anything harder) from the US (Peak Prosperity channel) and the main concern appears to be the inevitable collapse of an overloaded health system given the exponential growth of the virus (without draconian containment).

Not so much as helping the NHS as mathamatically calculating (with multiple models) when we reach crisis point. Not if but when because that is how exponential increase works. And then planning for that inevitability.

@Oakmaiden exactly what I was thinking.

Curious to know what's going on

@oakmaiden I noticed that, we never have had any critical/serious and I've always wondered if they are not updating that part of the data on the uk.

One reason we haven’t had any so far is that 2 patients died before making the stats.

Thats it @KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain

Countries econcomies and health systems are all at risk of overload and overwhelm because of the nature of the virus.

All countries that can help are feeding into helping those countires that will not manage.

It will happen and individual responsibility to stay away from others is key, so that the health system and the economy dont collapse, which means all get the medical care they need.

Routine care will be pushed to either side of the peak.

• I find it interesting that of the UK's 253 active cases of Covid19, apparently none of them are in a serious or critical condition. (According to worldometers

I wonder if this is true, or if for some reason our data isn't included. It would obviously be great if it were true, but according to statistics (which I know are never spot on for individual cases/countries) we should have about 50 serious/critical cases.*

The govt are playing this data very close to their chest.

There were reports the Uber lady was on a ventilator. 2 people are dead. I would suggest there are serious/critical cases but we're not going to be told

2 cases in Bournemouth / Poole / Christchurch reported

Regarding the serious / critical. I wondered about the (I think 9th) case who seemed to be in hospital for ages, and we've had nothing about her release.

@usernameishistory

It's a news report from an Italian journalist and useful in the sense that it shows the reality of the situation there and the efforts professional healthcare workers are making and the conditions they are working in. I came across it because a link to it was posted on Twitter by the BBC Rome correspondent, who I assume posted it because he thought it was informative.

However I take the point about it being distressing/intrusive and am happy to self report the post or for others to report it if not thought appropriate. Many other countries (not just Italy) do tend to report news that way, but I realise UK news reporting tends to be more reserved, which is probably a good thing..

Its all about protecting our most vulnerable in society, they are most at risk, and need the most medical and economic support.

Italy’s Army Chief tests positive for coronavirus t.co/UEfClntTFk

A better compromise for now, to relieve political pressure, would be to allow parents who wish to keep their kids at home to do so, without fines or losing their current school place

This. And for those who can to be allowed to work from home, particularly for those where they or someone in the household has a particular vulnerability.

The article shared earlier in the thread mentioned that the government priority will be managing demand and economy and it will be down to individuals to make decisions on their own needs/risks. I wonder if advice will change tomorrow as to vulnerable people being able to take action to isolate themselves.

Bloody hell ofwarren

German tourist dies of coronavirus in Egypt, 1st death in Africa t.co/eUoE2b20hL

My thinking is that the critical cases are low in the UK because we have been picking up the cases quickly at very early stages...however, now we have the community spread and as people shed the virus the number of critical cases will increase unless they increase the number of people tested at the early stages so start including anyone who may think they have the virus.

We need to take preventative action to stop the older more vulnerable section of our community from catching the virus because they will need hospital treatment.

People who keep bringing up swine flu deaths, it was clear quite quickly that the illness was milder than first thought. Can you genuinely not see the difference here? Are you watching how this is playing out, and do you think there's something special about Britain that means it won't happen to us? The Italian health system is collapsing under the strain, people are being ventilated in corridors, all of their operating theatres and recovery rooms have been converted to ITU. On the BBC news yesterday morning I saw the Korea correspondent doing a piece and they unloaded two ambulances behind her and were doing cpr on the patients. Why on earth do you think we will be spared?

Completely understand your thinking there @buttermilkwaffles

I agree, that although very insightful, the gruesome element does unbalance the benefit overall.

I think it would be helpful to post the salient information but remove the video?

Many thanks

"CV-19 is, on current data, between 0.3-1% at most (also from CMO)"

The WHO was saying 3.4% globally and Italy is much higher

I suppose the CMO has estimated the final rate, once the elderly patients have died early on, then the young & middle aged recover from much milder cases and dominate the statistics

We'll get a good indication of the final death rate once all the China cases have recovered
but currently 3.8% nationwide and 0.7% outside Wutan

• the latter is probably more reliable, since the govt took too long to get a grip in Wutan.

.... but that lower rate depends both on population demographics
and on how well people follow govt recommendations about social distancing & self-isolation

My aim is to treat at home, and put no extra duress on the health service unless I have to. I have a well stocked food and medical cupboard, and even an oxygen generator, should we need it (courtesy of my job, didn't go out and buy it specifically, but good to know it's there). I genuinely feel my family will be ok, and that in the end it will all be ok. I do think it will change things, but maybe long term for the better. People will have to stop expecting the state to Nanny them and sort everything out for them. They will need to take responsibility for themselves and it may mean we take a look at our NHS and stop underfunding it and taking it for granted. It might affect the rampant selfishness and consumerism in today's society and bring us back to sense.
That's my hope, anyway. Going for a bit of optimism in the face of worrying times!

The video is from about 4-5 days ago and was shown on the news report programme referenced. (Not the News, kind of like a Panorama style current affairs programme)

If I had a 1% chance of winning the lottery I would be playing all the time

I think what we're seeing in Italy is what happens when you don't spread the peak. It seems likely that the virus had been circulating widely, below the radar for weeks, if not longer, before they started taking serious steps to stop it spreading.

I think/hope that we've been testing widely enough in this country to start the large-scale mechanisms to delay the spread early enough to not get to the same stage as them. We have been testing serious, symptomatic patients without a travel history for a few weeks. There's also been the sentinel testing which is now starting to show it spreading in the community. I believe we are learning lessons from other countries.

Anecdotally, I was out in town today and used the toilets a few times. It was really noticeable how people were washing their hands - and thoroughly too. Here's hoping this all helps...