Tud Apologies for nitpicking, but you said
well the government has gone from a worst case scenario of 500,000 deaths to 100,000 including 25k that would normally die of flu
However, the report you linked says
The chair of the Royal College of GPs has said this 100,000 figure is a ‘worst case scenario’ rather than a certainty.
So it's not the Government changing their mind on the figures.