worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 16

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Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

Have been following these threads with Interest as this virus is having a catastrophic affect on my business..

Good news coming from my local area today.

99% of the patients treated in Nice hospital have recovered...

www.francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sciences/coronavirus-99-des-patients-guerissent-rassure-un-infectiologue-du-chu-de-nice-1582657278

I had to laugh at this, from the Guardian:

Iran Air has suspended all flights to and from Europe until further notice, semi-official state news agency Isna has said.

Isna said the move was because of "restrictions imposed by Europe for unknown reasons”.

Shall we give them three guesses why?

I disagree, I see lots of panic and anxiety on here.

There is a middle ground between people dismissing this as nothing and people who are panicking and assuming the worst. I think it's where a lot of people sit - taking necessary hygiene precautions, feeling nervous and apprehensive but carrying on as normal. I think that's the best way to be. Life has to be lived.

Brioche that is excellent news and thanks for sharing.
I hope your business picks up anď that you keep well.

Just reading about the case in Washington DC. The case had not travelled and had no known contacts, and was symptomatic since late Feb. So I'm guessing that is going to explode this week. How long till a member of USA government gets it, if they haven't already? Will they hush it up to prevent a run on the markets?

@YouAreTheEggManIAmTheWalrus that's really interesting. Crazy that 100 years later we're still being told the same- Don't worry and wash hands! At least we live in a time where we can prepare and access information more freely.

Have we had a link to the updated figures by authority? I think the last one I saw was for the 6.3.20. The information is now up for 7.3.20

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

Panicking isnt going to help though. I think its important to strike the balance between understanding that for the first time in 100 years we are facing a pandemic that will affect us all in the short term and could for a short while see life being very different and then ripples in the medium to long term against the fact that it isnt going to be the end of the world we are not in an apolyptic situation where society will fall.

we need to be prepared, we also need to accept that for a few months life isnt going to be as easy as it was before but at the same time stop panicking that somehow there are things that those in charge are not telling us. If you actually look at what they are saying that is enough to see why they are putting the plans in place that they are.

Who's the person that should be getting some kind of sentence?

The head of Italy's northern Piedmont region has tested positive for coronavirus - the second regional president to announce the news in just 24 hours.

A spokesman for Alberto Cirio said he felt well and would "continue to work remotely", La Repubblica reported.

On Saturday, Nicola Zingaretti, the head of the Lazio region and leader of Italy's centre-left Democratic Party (PD), said he had the disease.

From the Guardian live feed.

I'm just going to say it again. A Dr from the WHO just said on the Andrew marr show that this virus is really only affecting old people.
Marr asked what the difference is between flu and this virus and she said people with a bad case of coronavirus need oxygen therapy.
She said flu also affects babies, young people, pregnant women etc and Marr said "and this virus doesn't?" And she replied "no".
Marr brought up a Chinese Dr in 39's who died and she said he had been working crazy hours, not eating well and so his immune system probably wasn't in a good state.
So I took from that that a normal person under age of 60 is likely to be fine

@Horehound my post at 09:48

Some Bayesian analysis of cases and deaths

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/03/07/coronavirus-age-specific-fatality-ratio-estimated-using-stan/?fbclid=IwAR2AkjucW9l3XqYM5F_U80kX4xi7xlQyR6owYTzyQ2cwGc0psepd0GwTTTM

Ah thanks @Confuddledtown that is pretty bloody bad

@Horehound my parents are over 60. It is of no comfort to me that people younger to them are likely to be fine.

Bangladesh — first 3 cases of coronavirus

Brioche what line of business are you in? Or is the name a clue? Are tourist numbers in Nice lower than last year? I’m asking just to get an idea how other coastal areas on the Med are coping. It’s good news that the hospital admissions have largely been cleared though.

The government really need to impose mitigation now, or we could be like Italy in only a few weeks.
I am in my fifties, but have two children under 16, one a 12 year old who is very dependant on me after a long illness. Reading that they are already planning to prioritise those more likely to survive ( eg young) is very frightening for me.
I am really worrying about whether or not/when to take my dc out of school - the elder is doing GCSEs .
Also whether we should all move in with Mil, who lives somewhere fairly remote.

Iran has announced 743 new cases of coronavirus in the past 24 hours.

• I was thinking about the three wise men protocol. If beds do reach absolute max capacity for ICU and someone comes in who is younger/possibly more likely to survive, would they take someone off ventilation who perhaps is older/less likely to survive to provide space for them?

Or is it only used when critical patients arrive at the same time and its decided who gets treatment when there is a shortage?*

It would be a harder decision to remove card from someone who has already started but could happen.

More likely, there will be a new set of protocols put in place stating that anyone over x years old plus y/z underlying condition does not meet criteria for ITU in the first place, thus preserving the beds.

This is what we tend to do now. Certain people just never get into ITU in the first place, even if there's space, rather than giving them a bed and then moving them out if someone "more deserving" needs it

@confuddledtown ok maybe not to you but it was to me and might be to others :)

Third case confirmed in South Africa. Another member of the group of ten who had returned from Italy.

citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/health/2252006/third-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-south-africa/?fbclid=IwAR2IHuOpq3_qpxl5zmXFev02E4iNtCpBycpv4arnU9W5Ugs4ok26e1P381M

Anyone have any info on the risk of the virus causing complications if you’re pregnant/to a newborn? Due in April 😢

@Horehound Many of us will find the “only the over-60s affected” message hard to reconcile with published data - e.g. the table in the Telegraph article linked upthread at 09:34:17.

See also the study linked earlier in the thread showing the median recovery time (for those who recover) as 32 days. It is a long time to be ill. The social and economic impact of this is not confined to the death stats by any means.

The one thing I do take as been good in all of this is that children seem to be unaffected other than a mild virus we often have. That is the one light in all of this and is something that everyone can agree on even those it does affect.

But I have parents/family members/friends who are over 60 whom I am definitely not ready to say goodbye to.

And those in my age range arent completely free either