worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 15

[usernameishistory]

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

What are people’s feeling about gyms? I really want to keep going, but it also seems to me to be a potential place to pick up the virus. All those sweaty people grabbing the same equipment which is 🤮at the best of times but normally I try not to think about it and just wash and shower after.

But when do you return from the closures? A month? So in a month it starts transmission again.

Re: school closures the unintended consequence of that on emergency service workers, nhs workers or staff who still need to go into work to support the response / actively manage it - is them being home for family/children. Meaning more stress on less medical resource, leading to potentially increased mortality rates and worse outcomes over a population.

Fully understand anyone with health issues or in the at risk categories staying home.

School closures would be terrible for year 11 and sixth form. Yes they might set work for them to do but self directed study is no way the same as being taught.

You're not going allow your children to go out for weeks, possibly months?

3 weeks for 50% of people who are going to get it to catch it and 9 weeks for 95% of people who are going to get it to catch it.

I think some people would be prepared for this. I'm not there yet but I am not incredulous that others are.

It’s too early for schools to close I reckon, timing is important. There’s other stuff I’d do before that. WFH to ease transport.

The issue is

• for the kids it might be better to get it now, get it over with while under 10 especially as it could go round every year now
• this could last months on end we wouldnt be able to go anywhere (not great for kids
• getting now could be better than in months after getting a delivery at overload capacity.
• would we be able to go in the garden even as that report of virus in hospital exhausts so going between air con etc.
• i dont really want to lose the school place.
• my youngest loves nursery. She was off most of last week actually ill already so they may not hold her place. But realistically this is unlikely to blow over in time for her to have gone much more this year. So she would miss 4m.

Do you think they will have to lock down london??

To pp Bristol has had a case but it may not be local. There are 20+ in SW.
I think the gov are encouraging us to focus on the numbers. I havent seem much on tv about what is happening in italy for example.

The main point about closures is it does flatten the pandemic curve, pushes the problem into the summer - but does not stop the issue.

Awk I can not see ministers wanting to shut city regions. CCS / STAC May advise it but it’s their voters at the end of the day when that decision comes

Excellent programme on R4 running through this on Wednesday doing the scenario with former COBR attendees

Is no one else concerned about a new drug being developed that has been 'fast tracked' bypassing some important steps and potentially not being fully tested?
Medication to cure me if I'm at deaths door is one thing but I wouldn't be taking a vaccine unless I was aware of longer term consequences.

Does anyone else feel that the time to catch this is now, before the hospitals are overwhelmed?

that's what everyone was saying at the eu health minister meeting video recordings available here
there was concern about the speed of the spread and the effect of this on the health system both on human and material resources.
to intubate a patient you need at least 2 professionals present as well as adequate ppe and the intubation tools that are getting harder and harder to supply because of the demand.

Easter means closure so at least there’s that for those who’d prefer it. Although many will be travelling regardless.

School closures would be terrible for year 11 and sixth form. Yes they might set work for them to do but self directed study is no way the same as being taught.

It isn't. I am nearly finished with my year 11 though. I just hope if it happens they will revise.
We had study leave at Easter in 96. Totally different now though with it being late May.

Stubble yep that R4 programme was really good.

It will be interesting to see what happens in China. Dd’s School is closed, but the Chinese are gradually relaxing the control measures and we are waiting for a reopen date. Will reopening schools cause another spike in cases?

The schools are probably trying to get to GCSEs and A-Levels (or at even those exams in April at least).

www.politico.eu/article/health-ministers-squabble-over-face-masks-at-coronavirus-talks/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Health ministers squabble over face masks at coronavirus talks
Different national approaches led to tension at emergency meeting in Brussels.

Summary: France and Germany have largest production but are limiting or banning exports to other EU countries. Smaller EU states are unhappy and say masks are not going where they are most needed. They want Germany's export ban to be watered down to allow exports within the EU.

This does beg a question of where this leaves the UK? The US mainly import theirs from China. The UK would have in other times perhaps got them from the EU and China, remembering imports from China take six weeks to ship. I don't know what our production ability within the UK is.

I do think this is a question that journalists should be looking into now for the protection of health workers.

My suspicious is we will have a problem.

I can really see that to close all the schools because of approx 170 cases appears extreme but to close the two weeks before Easter means that you would get four solid weeks where it could die right down.

Before Easter hols is better than after because then you are into GCSE’s and rearranging them is a logistical nightmares.

Plus you would be closing down and having an impact on NHS (re childcare) before the potentionally high numbers begin and you could also prevent those high numbers ever coming.

So I would close schools for two weeks before Easter.

The MK hospital’s public statement about their fatal case said (in response to the family’s concerns re late isolation):

1. He was 88 with underlying conditions, just returned from a Caribbean cruise.

1. He was admitted on Tuesday with suspected pneumonia and coughed “excessively” on the ward. He was isolated later that day.

1. He was tested for COVID-19 on Wednesday.

1. The test came back positive on Thursday evening and he died shortly afterwards (the family say an hour after they were told).

Source: MK Citizen.

Is no one else concerned about a new drug being developed that has been 'fast tracked' bypassing some important steps and potentially not being fully tested?

not really. tests on medicines are very stringent. and even if a medicine is fast tracked a lot of data is available to be assessed. the eyes will be on the pharmaceutical company - they can't afford to mess up, that would cripple them. it's not in their interest to produce & sell duff medicines.

If they close the schools, I genuinely can't imagine people staying in their houses too. They'd be off out on day trips.

Is no one else concerned about a new drug being developed that has been 'fast tracked' bypassing some important steps and potentially not being fully tested?

I'd be pretty nervous about human trials if I were a prisoner in China.

it's not in their interest to produce & sell duff medicines.

I'm not suggesting they'd do it on purpose but certain processes have already been bypassed. Plus the competition between companies will be huge because of the high demand. This itself could lead to problems.

Morning all.
My mum had pneumonia a few years back. I left her around 1pm and she had a bit of a cold. Sneezes and a bit of a cough. 2 hours later she was vomiting, oxygen levels in her boots, and on her way to hospital. I was stunned at the speed of how it progressed from a bit of a cold to full blown pneumonia. I'm a nurse and was not concerned about her at all when I left her that afternoon. She fully recovered thankfully but then she was treated straight away. And that was bacterial pneumonia so IV antibiotics so relatively straight forward to treat.

The thing concerning me is the mild cases of CV that are undiagnosed as it remains a bit of a cold and cough. Those cases will be carrying on as normal and spreading it round to those of us who are more vulnerable.

I think we should be doing everything we can to avoid catching this in the next couple of months . This article shows the effect on the Italian health system at the moment ( Google translate does a pretty good job)

www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/07/news/coronavirus_il_piano_del_governo_per_la_sanita_-250489138/
Italy has twice the number of critical and ICU beds per 1,000 that we have so think what it will like here if you get seriously ill at the peak of the infection

I am under no illusions that I will get it now but I will try my hardest to get it as late in the pandemic as possible. The vaccine is going to be a long time but there are treatment trials going on with results due in a few months . Maybe they will find an effect treatment . Or at least once the peak has passed, there may be more beds available.

If they close the schools, I genuinely can't imagine people staying in their houses too. They'd be off out on day trips.

I'm not sure they would, it might seem like that now when the coronavirus threat seems like a theoretical threat but when 50% of mild cases get pneumonia and they see that among friends and family it might cause pause for thought.