worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 15

[usernameishistory]

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

On the positive side, fat elderly men are a high risk category.

Which means Trump.

Still can't say this. As much as you might dislike Trump.

Besides, who takes over? Is that really any better?

Why is Germany having less serious hospital admissions and currently no deaths?

I really hope that is the case Banana0pancakes

Guardian this morning says Chinese students in the UK are pretty disappointed with the UK Government response, compared to what they see in China. Article on wider implications for Universities, which sounds less than positive.

The locations were from Thursday or before weren’t they? Hence lots of ones we know about are missing. Milton Keynes isn’t on there but they only confirmed diagnosis Thursday evening.

Apparently they will update numbers over the weekend. Not sure how often the location map will update, did they back track on only Fridays?

I want to be reassured by this optimism, I really do, except it assumes we play by the rules. It depends on compliance and our country taking this seriously.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-reasons-to-be-reassured

China used extreme yet effective measures to contain. In this country we have apathetic or dismissive bosses and a culture of presenteeism that means working from home is scoffed at.
No hand sanitiser in many places.

People are filthy buggers who don't wash their hands, who sneeze and splutter over everyone, who grapple hand rails, door knobs and can't be arsed to use gel in public when there isn't any.

Some people on public transport do have to spend more than 15 mins in the same space. Even if you do wash your hands after, some prick probably coughed on your hair anyway or paid the driver with dirty coins.

Magic but China is in a full blown epidemic, potentially on the other side.
I still think we’re striking the right balance between not overreacting and not underreacting.

When responding to any major incident - which this is, you have to be aware of the unintended consequences that occur when you do both.

I know someone who has the virus. They were very unwell for a couple of days but are now recovering well.

Why is Germany having less serious hospital admissions and currently no deaths?

Cases identified more quickly via contact tracing, meaning more less serious cases identified. German outbreak identified before it hit hospitals and more vulnerable individuals.

Outbreak in Italy perhaps much more advanced and their criteria for testing is much higher due to sheer numbers and lack of lab capacity. Has hit vulnerable populations unchecked and spread undetected there before being identified.

My best guess.

Fucking hell those italy figures are horrifying!!!
Exactly what i have been concerned about.
Once at capacity noone else will be able to go to hospital.

Im asthmatic.

On the positive side, fat elderly men are a high risk category - Which means Trump.

This really made me laugh

My husband is off to a professional rugby match this afternoon and usually he takes both children but I’ve told him this time to leave them at home with me. I’ve done it under the guise of it being too cold to take them out.....

It was saying in the news in S Korea they have an app with GPS location and it pings a government official if you are to leave quarantine.

Some people don't even want to shut schools for 2 weeks here.

Interesting different countries responses.

China data was 20% hospital of which 5% icu at the start of this.
But they restricted movement exceptionally so only risk was from family members.

What is the population of the area in italy locked down?
Ie how many may be being treated at home or not getting infected??

I think im going to have to pull dc from school.

However they have been back 2w now since half term it may be too late already.
My only concern is then just delaying getting it but then we get it when they are already overwhelmed.

anyone going to the saracens match ?
wrap your scarves up high round mouth and nose.
wash well on return. good luck.

Remember when looking at stats, you need to understand methodology as well as the raw numbers. You can not compare data from two countries directly if you are not fully aware of differences of methodology.

Needs to be stressed repeatedly especially when looking at the 'CFR'. You can not have an accurate CFR if you are only testing people who meet strict guidelines on symptoms. You have to also have a good idea of the numbers of asymptomatic cases to calculate the CFR. That effectively means more randomised testing to spot undetected clusters, good contact tracing to identify asymptomatic cases and widespread testing not limited to classic symptoms.

This is not happening in Italy thus discussion of the CFR is immediately flawed as the data is not high quality enough to accurately assess this.

Contact tracing to be 100% effective must be impossible. I’ve come into contact with probably 500 people this week. Pretty sure I’d forget some of my interactions. I find it all very confusing how easily it is passed on. I’m wondering if we will start to see them cleaning supermarket trolleys and public spaces and the like.

The MK case a bit worrying. Not only that he’d been in hospital for a while without being isolated, he had recently returned from a Caribbean cruise.

If it was neither the Diamond or Grand, that means there’s another ship out there with cv.

Guardian.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/06/coronavirus-britons-quarantined-on-cruise-ship-off-san-francisco-grand-princess

@middleager
Exactly, compliance is key and this is china’s strength. The measures they put in place were not open for discussion or individual interpretation. Before I return home I have to inform my compound mgt of my intended arrival date and travel route. They will then ensure I am complying with current quarantine regulations.

I will eat my hat if Manila has really only got under ten cases. It's a overcrowded and dirty city with high pollution and a big Chinese community. I doubt they're testing. If I'm wrong then WHO should be looking at them as a model on 'how not to get COVID-19'.

Disclaimer - Love the people not so keen on Manila

Fourducksate yes I posted about that (Caribbean cruise) earlier. It looks as though he wasn’t tested at the MK hospital for CV-19 until very late in his illness, perhaps because although he had relevant signs and symptoms he didn’t meet the strict “travel history” criteria.

Does anyone else feel that the time to catch this is now, before the hospitals are overwhelmed?

I'm so worried. Done all my prepping, have at least a month's worth of food and supplies in, just want the schools and uni's to close so I can have the dc safe at home.

thegirl I was saying just that this morning to my friend. At least people are still getting good care at the moment. Give it a few weeks and we will be left to fend for ourselves at home, and that concerns me greatly with my mum being so unwell.

@thegirlfromstoryville and then what? You're not going allow your children to go out for weeks, possibly months?

I just want the schools and uni's to close so I can have the dc safe at home.

I don’t see how this can ever happen though because where are all these children going to go?

I would imagine a very high number of families have two working parents so how would they manage it?

There are about 700 children in my son’s school and that’s just one school out of about 10 just in my town - can you imagine if thousands and thousands and thousands of people around the country have to stop working to look after their children? Can you imagine the knock on effect of that?

In an ideal world schools would close, but in the real world I just don’t see how it could happen.

The cruise could be a complete red herring and he could be a community case. If it was a Caribbean cruise I don’t think he would have travelled anywhere at risk.