Twitney
I think a halt on large gatherings, closing of schools etc. could happen around 20th March. Taking into account the Easter holidays, this should give 4 weeks to shut things down.
Looking at the Sky News models, it's quite interesting to see how shutting up shop too early, could be detrimental, and leaving it too late could be a real issue, in that it would drag on for longer.
But it's a new thing, so who knows.........