Coronavirus thread 13

[KenAdams]

Previous thread here.

We are using Worldometer, BDO and Dr John Campbell videos as part of the discussions.

Grandmi, hose figures aren't in any way a prediction, but I think many people just don't have a very concrete understanding of just how quickly exponential growth can... well...grow exponentially . I'm very much hoping that we take lots of steps to bring that growth down, as many other countries have done. Those are the figures as they might be in a country that did absolutely nothing to stem the tide.

We all have to just carry on until we all drop and the don't get access to help?.
I went through this in 2007 when labouring women were turned away from hospitals because the ward was full and those inside were not being taken care of either. I had my baby in 2007 and more than fear of birth was my fear of being turned away and giving birth on a road side.

That's horrendous.

Thanks choc I run a business so taking time off is complicated but I think I need to do it.

I'm just so annoyed that I have this extra layer of anxiety about it being Covid19
Knowing one way or the other would change my behaviour so much and I reckon there's probably lots of people in the same position as me. Just going on about their daily lives because they don't want to cause a 'fuss' but are actually spreading the virus.

You are scaremongering. South Korea and Italy haven't seen cases double every two days. Why on earth would the UK grow at a rate higher than any other country? That's insane.

But Italy and South Korea made changes to slow their rate: shut schools, stopped transport, locked down areas. We've done f all to stop our spread so are much more likely to see the natural course of the disease, which does appear to be exponential growth, at least in the early days.

I think that Guardian article about Prof Whitty may age badly. The WHO speech posted by @usernameishistory was a very clear reprimand to the UK (and US) approach of letting this disease burn through our population. If this was Whitty’s advice, it was v poor, if not reckless, given this is not flu but an entirely new & unknown virus.

There was a window to push this back & eradicate (as with SARS) but I think that window may have already closed for the UK.

Butter thanks for that article.

He does seem impressive but it's difficult ti read from such a muddied article laden with ridiculous comments.

He also doesn't have a family.

I'm not being funny but I've had the worst flu of my life this week. I have a really bad sore throat, have been bedridden with aches and pains, no runny nose and a tight chest (though only a mild cough).

I keep fluctuating between thinking I'm being ridiculously over dramatic to take another week of work and thinking I'm being really selfish to even contemplate it.

I haven't been to any of the hot spots or been in contact with anyone confirmed with the virus. But I probably come into close contact with about 150 people a week through my job.
In an ideal world I'd be able to get a test and have it done with, but I feel really infantilised by the system.

I've been in and out of bed half the week. Feel awful. Had a cough since nov, but I've definitely caught at least 2 or 3 other bugs since then.

I don't know whether I'm on yet another bug or this is still the one I got from DS before half term.

The whole thing with 111 is ridiculous. Utterly useless. Part of me thinks I need to go to the doctors because I'm just not shifting whatever I've had, but the other thing is knowing that if it's viral then there fuck all they can do anyway and going to the GP could trigger a closure because I don't trust 111 as far as I can throw it.

I don't for one second think I have The Lurgy. I've not been abroad and no one I've been in close contact has been abroad this side of Christmas.

Of course there is always the via school option that I can't rule out, but timing on that would make it weeks and weeks ago.

But yes I think having any type of illness other than covid-19 now feels like you are either being ridiculous or time wasting.

I don't exactly feel reassured.

What on earth has that got to do with it?

Mac 12

Where is the who article, reprimanding UK please, can anyone link it?

Whitty would have put the various options to Boris, who as PM chose which course to take, the balance of economy vs lives.

Whitty is responsible for carrying out the policy, not deciding which one

He cannot and should not criticise the government unless he resigns

• and it would imo be very irresponsible to resign and abandon his post at such a time, even if he strongly disagreed with the policy

Perhaps those that have not been to a hot spot but have covid symptoms and 111 won't test them should ask their local mp for a personal surgery to talk about the system?

Perhaps Prince William could sit in too, to listen to the cough.

www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---5-march-2020

Big,

Can you link to the evidence that boris has deliberately chosen an economic policy over a humanitarian one please, expressly put forward by Chris.

Doesn't the UK have those pods outside hospitals, to check for the virus ?

For those who think they may have it, but haven't been in the relevant areas abroad

or are they for something else ?

@Springinsight very good idea

Big

The lids are there but you only get to go if it's been arranged via 111.

@bigchocfrenzy you still need a 111 referral to the pods

Pods, not lids obv...

great idea Springinsight.

It was the WHO briefing today, it was posted earlier up this thread by @usernameishistory
He doesn’t mention any country by name - WHO tends to be diplomatic - but it is clear reprimand to those countries that have seen what measures work & have instead decided to keep business as usual. It’s not the first time he has alluded to this but today he went further. We know what works - school closures, ban mass events, rigorous testing &tracing, add friction to travel, disrupt transmission at all costs and do this early before it gets ahead of you & devastates your health service. Johnson, Whitty & the lot of them can get in the bin.

DH sent someone to one of the pods today. Unfortunately without a travel history I don't think 111 will permit him to be tested. I read somewhere that they are essentially an empty room with a phone to call 111 in and only then are personnel summoned - let me see if I am talking bollocks or if I can find a link to support that ... I think it's to gate-keep the testing process.

Alas, I fear I am correct - see document, point 4 onwards ...

www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/coronavirus-priority-assessment-service-sop-v2.pdf

Here's the exerpt, yo me it's not subtle but a real 'get a rocket up your arse'

However, this epidemic is a threat for every country, rich and poor. As we have said before, even high-income countries should expect surprises. The solution is aggressive preparedness.
We’re concerned that some countries have either not taken this seriously enough, or have decided there’s nothing they can do.
We are concerned that in some countries the level of political commitment and the actions that demonstrate that commitment do not match the level of the threat we all face.
This is not a drill.
This is not the time to give up.
This is not a time for excuses.
This is a time for pulling out all the stops.

Yeah we have a pod at our local hospital, but only for referrers from gp or 111.

I can see why you can't just rock up - looking at our local fb page 50% of people are convinced they have it.

I presume there is a limit to the amount of testing they can undertake, so at this stage it makes sense to restrict it to those they can identify as having had contact. I suspect this might change rather quickly if evidence builds of further community transmissions. (I would certainly hope so, anyway).

IMO the government just wants to get to the Easter school holidays before doing anything sensible