Coronavirus thread 13

[KenAdams]

Previous thread here.

We are using Worldometer, BDO and Dr John Campbell videos as part of the discussions.

It's not the absolute numbers that count, it's the type of transmission, geographic pattern and likelihood of further spread eg setting (Care home, school, hospital) ,demographics, population density...it's like a pattern that an epidemiologist can look at and model mathematically to make predictions. But a novel virus is, well, new, so it is a learning process as no one knows what it will do, eg in different countries with different climates or whether it mutates to be less or more virulent or severe.

Is this the critical number to hit for dramatic expotential rise?

I've been looking at this and there definitely is a critical mass effect going on. For example, once a country hits more than 10 cases at the start of the day, 9/10 of those countries will report additional cases by the end of the day.

There's not really a pattern yet though as to which will report huge numbers and which will report an additional 1 or 2. It must be to do with individual countries testing criteria and ability because it doesn't seem to be related to the size of the country or its overall number of cases

DH’s hospital doesn’t even have the ability to test yet, so there’s no doubt we’re under testing! They’re a huge teaching hospital, so I’m sure there are others round the country like them

Is it correct only over 65’s have died in Italy?

Who was it that said the UK would stop testing after 100 cases? Did they retract that?

It is high

Look how low china is for new cases!

Death in Berkshire from Coronavirus

I think the word ‘mild’ is subjective it seems or even misleading. It just means you are not in a critical state in hospital. I think lots of experts have been trying to reassure people by saying ‘it’s a mild illness for most’

To me Flu is not mild, it was the worst I’ve ever felt. Those who have had pneumonia say the same. Those are not mild illnesses to me but can be completely debilitating and you are wiped out for months.

I know we’ve discussed this but I’d love to hear more stories from those for whom it was like ‘ a mild cold’

One person in the uk has died from the Coronavirus at the royal Berkshire hospital they had under lying health issues

First UK death. Very real now!

Just heard about the first UK death. Royal Berkshire NHS Trust

I think it was mooted on these threads but I never saw it confirmed nicepud

Just told DP what the numbers for the UK are now, and he just said ‘yeah, but that’s out of 65 million people, it’s nothing really’ 🙄

Italy’s death rate seems really high!

We have a lot of old people compared to most other countries.

That might not be the whole story. Air quality up here in the North isn't exactly fab. Number of smokers might be higher than other countries I think.

That country chart - a whole boat slipped into the middle of it 🙈

As someone who lives in Reading its getting too close!

Oh no a uk death- do we know how old they were??

'"Sadly, we can confirm that an older patient with underlying health conditions has died.

"The patient has previously been in and out of hospital for non-coronavirus reasons, but on this occasion was admitted and last night tested positive for coronavirus."'

So there may be help for home owners as was stated on previous thread.

So...........housing associations Now its over to you!

We have a lot of obesity related disease compared to Italy, France and I think China. I think this would have an impact on our outcomes.

Delatron - I think they're using mild as opposed to critical/fatal/severe/debilitating. The first probably ranging from a cold to a nasty flu and the latter ranging from pneumonia/oxygen/ICU/coma/death.

For context about flu over 70% dont know they have it, because their symptoms are so mild!!!

Its not relevant.

Only 'critical' cases are noted, but it still seems to be a protected period of illness, weeks rather than days, if you have symptoms

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/alder-hey-childrens-hospital-hit-17871137

Anyone seen this

It's now reached Cornwall, 1 case has been confirmed by Cornwall council. Not sure which part of Cornwall, only info is that they'd recently travelled to Italy. At work today everyone was laughing and saying they didn't expect it to "come down here".

Yes, I think my understanding of mild (and I think lots of the country who are dismissing it) was it would be like maybe a bad cold. Not the level of flu or pneumonia.

So that’s a bit more worrying and I think a lot of the population don’t understand that. They should stop using the word mild!