Coronavirus thread 12

[VivaLeBeaver]

Can’t see one? Sorry if there is one.

TheLadyAnneNeville

Whilst I'm usually an optimist and a "keep calm and carry on" until forbidden to do so, the bottom line for me now is that I just don't want to travel anywhere, nor do I want my nearest and dearest to do so. DD (21) has plans to go to Australia in April. No flights booked yet, but a trip once there has been paid for. I just do not want her to go. I expect the risks out there are similar to here, but I want her here, where I can see her and help care for her if she needs it.

Can anyone answer me why we aren't doing widespread testing?

Because it's flu/cold/cough season you would have so many false it's unbelievable.

Sorry, TheLadyAnne, didn't finish my take on your situation. I would cancel in your shoes. It's a distressing enough task to spread your mother's ashes as it is. Why not postpone, until we know where we're at with all this?

I'm due at the Royal Albert Hall for a large-scale schools' Gala on Sunday.
As things stand currently, it's going ahead. Would you be happy?

Just been to our local sainsburys, it's very close to me so I've been monitoring it for a few days, nothing was really changing and I have to admit I thought you were all overstating the 'panic buying!' I've just been now and my goodness - it's like it's been robbed! No handwash, surface wipes, anti-bac spray, dettol, anything like that! 😳

Its definitely cranked up another level today.

I don't want to go anywhere anymore either. I have a 7 month old DS and just panic. I don't use public transport since it's been announced and generally tried to avoid busy places.
I'm a worrier anyway but even taking my DS to the shops I come back and wash our clothes, hats, coats, blankets the lot.
I wish it would fuck off and not return

Here we go, the original study:

academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463?searchresult=1

If it helps, I have read the entire scientific journal article "On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2" that was being discussed (and creatively interpreted) by the newspapers.

The authors' interpretation is:
🔹They compared 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes (not individual patient samples - therefore representing more than 103 patients) amongst themselves, and against several closely related animal coronaviruses.
🔹The S type is ancestral, the L type evolved from it.
🔹The L type is more virulent and contagious.
🔹Therefore it spread more rapidly in the initial phase of the epidemic in Wuhan (whilst people hadn't realised what was happening and to avoid it, essentially)and formed the vast majority of early cases analysed.
🔹They believe that the aggressive control measures implemented resulted in selective evolutionary pressure against the virulent L type.
🔹This biased the subsequent population towards the less aggressive S type.

I am a scientist (molecular biologist) and so I am able to understand the whole paper. But I have no specific expertise in virology or epidemiology. So - I'm not entirely sure how "less aggressive" this S type is, seeing how it's cutting a swathe around the globe. Perhaps they mean less aggressive in the sense that it's less killy than the L type.

One of DH’s colleagues has a holiday booked to Japan. The current advice is for returning travellers to self isolate for two weeks. The company is refusing to pay him full sick pay to self isolate because they’re saying he’s choosing to go in the full knowledge that he’ll have to self isolate upon his return, therefore it’s self inflicted because he could easily cancel and not go.

The guy is now saying he won’t be self isolating upon his return because he won’t get paid. So DH and several others who have young DC and vulnerable family members have marched into the director’s office and said if this guy comes back to work after visiting Japan we will ALL walk out for two weeks to protect our families.

Now the guy is complaining that he’s being bullied. You couldn’t make it up.

Flybe gone bust. Flights cancelled and planes being impounded at airports.

4 more cases in ROI. A family recently travelled to Italy. This virus must be pretty easily transmissible, mustn't it, if so many people can bring it back from one country. I doubt they were running around snogging the locals, so presumably just eating out, shopping etc.
Not sure how that matches up with the initial advice that you'd have to be within several meters of someone for 15 minutes to catch it. Haven't heard R0 mentioned for a while so not sure where we stand with that.

The first of many probably. Very sad.

There are 2 confirmed cases in Carlisle. I haven't seen them mentioned on here, but I might have missed it. It's a husband and wife according to local news, who have been skiing in Italy.
I am a teacher, and we've been showing advice on hand washing etc on all the screens we usually put sports notices etc at school all week. The kids are all abuzz with the cases near us, and are convinced school will be closing soon for 2 months (I don't know where they're getting their info from, it's certainly not from anywhere official).

I'm slightly concerned about catching it as my dad has quite a lot of health issues, so he's someone who is likely to be in danger if he catches it. He has to be very careful every year to avoid flu, and is religious about getting the flu vaccine every year, but obviously this doesn't have a vaccine.

Just a note that if you are looking for hand wash and the like, a lot of people hadn't seemed to notice that the dreaded Bayliss and Harding do an anti bac wash, it's the silver one.

It might not be great but better than nothing...

@TheElementsOfMedicalthank you for the excellent summary of that article. As a recently qualified nurse, I could read and understand it myself, but i am still recovering from my dissertation!

Bad news re Flybe, though I suppose fewer flights isn't a bad thing! Sad for the employees though.

My sister’s attitude is “it’ll be fine, we’re GOING!”
How unbelievably selfish. People like this will cause a huge number of deaths.

family recently travelled to Italy. This virus must be pretty easily transmissible, mustn't it, if so many people can bring it back from one country.

I think it’s more likely that one of the family was infected first, then passed it on to the others.

I wonder if vital load would be helped if hitting in warmer weather.
More people outside even kids in the garden and at school playground so less load than stuck inside.

I think brainwashing is important however, I was mine a lot. Kids wash them after soft play before eating and yet we get ill. Could mainly be from school though.
Maybe tighten up on kids at school with fever, cough and cold symptoms.

Maybe a design for toilet doors opening with a hand swipe, no touch.

I guess too the better weather here is rather different to the rubbish we have had over winter so people do go to outside things more.

That internalized would make a huge difference.

One of DH’s colleagues has a holiday booked to Japan. The current advice is for returning travellers to self isolate for two weeks. The company is refusing to pay him full sick pay to self isolate because they’re saying he’s choosing to go in the full knowledge that he’ll have to self isolate upon his return, therefore it’s self inflicted because he could easily cancel and not go.

This is the policy my DH's company are thinking of taking. I think I agree with it but at the same time I have an awful lot of sympathy for those who are losing money on holidays they have saved for.

Thanks TheElementsOfMedical (best username ever btw). I took a similar message from the abstract and was hoping someone who actually knew what they were talking about would confirm. I’m fairly sure that “aggressive” refers to the effect on the patient, not its transmissibility.

It feels like a tiny glimmer of hope, but I suppose the L strain may come back with a vengeance when the containment is reduced.

I think brainwashing is important

Absolutely amazing typo. Although hearing 100s of children sing happy birthday several times a day is definitely a form of brainwashing.

People (I mean in general not the thread) are focussing too much on their individual risk.
It’s about doing what we can to minimise the risk of spread. So while many individuals might decide they’re willing to take the risk of going to X event, collectively they increase the chances that a higher number of people are infected. We need to reduce those chances as much as we can where possible.

I often felt like washing my brain after soft play.

I have it on excellent authority that many city firms and banks have been/will be instructed to work from home come Monday. That will cause the panic buying to ramp up. But it also means that organisations are taking matters into their own hands when the government isn't acting quickly enough.

So - I'm not entirely sure how "less aggressive" this S type is, seeing how it's cutting a swathe around the globe. Perhaps they mean less aggressive in the sense that it's less killy than the L type.

That might fit with the news I read today, which said the mortality rate had gone up to 3,4%. Report I read said it was still 1,6% outside China.

Though of course things will continue to be adjusted as time passes.