Coronavirus thread 12

[VivaLeBeaver]

Can’t see one? Sorry if there is one.

“We will get 50% of all the cases over a three-week period and 95% of the cases over a nine-week period, if it follows a trajectory we think it’s likely to”

England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty on the possible impact of coronavirus on the NHS

t.co/up8tvXnSE1 t.co/tw43DJkLC1

What kind of numbers are we looking at?

Surely Carrie is not going to be on the pregnancy topics at the very least! BoJo won't be able to avoid "there was this person on mumsnet..." conversations for long.

I imagine though with Italy that is very much the tip of the iceberg. Given the number of countries reporting cases from there that must miss a lot of the mild cases
When you add that in the figures seem right

Are any of your schools still planning on going to the Big Bang science fair at NEC? Our school is and I think its so stupid. They had 62,000 kids there last year, 80,000 total and are still saying they plan to go ahead with it this year.

When do they start measuring cases from? So how long have we been in this now (UK)?

By the looks of it peridito the information is going to be more than just county.
Chris whitty said just not the street, so to me that means they are going to be giving actual towns.

It is too late to cancel crufts now, I have friends who show dogs and they travelled last night.

To the user (sorry I am too lazy to go back) talking about stocking up, kids will eat veggie if they are hungry. Tofu has quite a long date on it. You can also unpack chicken, pork etc and wrap individually in bags then stuff then into the smallest of gaps in your freezer.

@Quartz2208 this is my view with italy hopefully. The amount of cases found elsewhere from italy is huge.

I thought chris whitty was suggesting 20% may be infected but i could have picked that up wrong

Tbh you don’t even need Skype for parents evening. A phone call could do. You don’t need to see the person.

Thanks for that ofwarren 95% of cases with a 9 week period. I wonder when that 9 week period is expected to start?

@Spacecadetagain

I don't think you ever fully recover. After pneumonia, every little cold I get hits my lungs badly. I have had the pneumonia Vax, and haven't had it since. But I doubt I would survive cv19

I'd be very wary of flying, not so much because you are going to another country, unless it is somewhere like China, but becuase planes themselves are massively good places for catching any infections. Not so much because of the percentage of recirculated air, but because you have a large number of people in a small area and the contamination of surfaces within the plane has been shown to be huge. People touch the seats and tables all the time as they move around the plane. And of course all the areas within the toilet.

io9.gizmodo.com/why-you-really-get-sick-on-planes-and-how-to-prevent-1471880458

If you do fly take lots of wipes and sanitizer.

@Newjez does the pneumonia jab not give any benefit at all towards this? Wouldn’t it be great if it even just helped a little 😣

Just wanted to say thanks to all who are collating information and being the voices of reason in these uncharted territories - you will never know how much I need this little corner of MN right now.

My DM has terminal cancer and is housebound so I am seeing her almost every day and while our area appears to be clear at the moment, my fear of passing on anything is really magnified at the moment - she also has COPD so FML!!

My DF is 80 and has splenic lymphoma - had his spleen removed a few years ago - it's a very slow burn situation but he's had to have radiotherapy for two other lymphomas in the last two years. He is being such a rock for me (my parents are long divorced) and is carer to my SM who has a raft of issues, many MH with a side serving of vascular dementia......

DH works in a service industry providing a fairly personal service - cross contamination is a field of expertise and he is cheerfully carrying on as normal having made sure he's doing everything he can to minimise risk.

Sounds utterly selfish but this virus is the last thing I need on top of the emotional turmoil I am already grappling with - my business is obviously neglected and in severe danger of tanking anyway - nails in coffin spring to mind.

And it must be the same for many others as life is complicated these days.

Stoicism is my current watchword - and vodka helps.

My thoughts are with everyone feeling uncertainty and fear, those who are vulnerable and their loved ones, those trying to do damage control both personally and professionally, and I hope this situation is managed without civil unrest and severe deprivation.

So checking in here is part of the routine I am dragging myself through

@SonjaMorgan not necessarily. When the French govt announced the ban on large gatherings the closed a massive Paris show a day early. They could shut it down. Not sure theres much point though, if they've done a day or two damage is probably done. I have family there working.

“We will get 50% of all the cases over a three-week period and 95% of the cases over a nine-week period, if it follows a trajectory we think it’s likely to”

So is this three weeks and nine weeks from case 1 or from now?

Feb 6 - case 1
Feb 27 - three weeks
April 9th - nine weeks

That can’t be right as I can’t see us being at 50% of cases a week or so ago. So presuming it’s from now that makes it:

March 5th - start point
March 26th - three weeks
May 7th - nine weeks

This matters to me because I’m pregnant and due in the second period.

That looks right I reckon more than 200 by friday

I don't reckon the three weeks starts yet. I reckon it starts once the numbers ramp up to Italy type levels.

I would suspect that the 9 week bulk of cases will not start for another month or so. Just guessing. I don’t think it will be as of now

I'm thinking the government have an individualistic outlook rather than collectivist like the Chinese. In normal times in Western society this amounts to capitalism, personal autonomy. We accept and vote for this

To some extent they are allowing things to develop and each person is individually risk assessing their response. They then have less accountability for either wrecking the economy by being cautious or overseeing the death of a lot of people by being too gung-ho.

This falls apart in this epidemic as the vulnerable suffer when the fit and healthy fail to take precautions. A bit like how the vulnerable always suffer in a dog eat dog society. But instead of dying early and quietly and a consistent rate they are going to die in big numbers and very visibly.

This virus needs a collectivist response more like China. We actually need an authoritarian approach. But people are not used to that mindset. It's a difficult massage to get across.

The 3 weeks will be in the middle - around June perhaps

OldQueen - you're having a really tough time of it from all angles. Hope you get chance to take care of yourself too. Enjoy the vodka!

Other vaccinations help only in that they stop other people needing care for those conditions when the NHS is busy with cv.

We’ll panic biting us definitely a thing in our area - north - now.

Currently in Costco and it’s jammed. Lots of bread being bought, along with frozen stuff, masses of chicken breasts and of course loo roll!

Maybe it’s beginning to sink in. I smugly walked past the loo rolls and avoided a scrum - I already have mine 👍

Lots of friends at Crufts today, that is not going to help.

Thanks for this thread. Am starting to get a little concerned by the rate at which the cases seem to be developing in the UK.

Even husband, who doesn't worry, said he thinks schools will close in the next 2 weeks and we could do with getting some cupboard stuff in as opposed to our usual fresh stuff.

We are off to the UAE in Aug and so far, other than potentially being screened at the airport, there seems no reason to be concerned about our holiday as yet.