Coronavirus thread 12

[VivaLeBeaver]

Can’t see one? Sorry if there is one.

thank you GPWife. I just go between panic and thinking will be okay. Such a strange situation

It seems like the cause of anxiety for so many is the not knowing exactly what will happen when. In terms of both how the virus itself will progress AND in terms of how the government will handle it.

Its scary and exacerbates anxiety massively to not be in possession of reliable and predictable facts. But us wanting that knowledge doesnt mean it can be provided. The virus itself seems to have two streams which may make direct comparisons with China less reliable. The government may well know the stage of spread at which they would start closing schools etc, but they likely don't know exactly when this will be, as it will have to be done at a time of maximum efficacy with as short a disruption period as possible.

There is a large part of me which thinks "ok, we know this could get bad, but we don't know when and that isn't likely to change soon. So what can we do in the interim? Wash hands and don't wear false nails/nailvarnish (germ catchers which is why nurses don't on wards). Cough into elbow or tissue then dispose and wash hands. Put a few extra bits of shopping in fhr weekly shop if we can afford to, just in case we can't get out for a bit, and maybe plan how we could help our nearest and dearest if one it them became unwell/needed shopping etc".

I don't know what else we can do? It seems the gov are only testing people in ICU, sentinel places and those with direct contact with identified carriers. Maybe being admitted to hospital with pneumonia will also result in testing happening? Realistically, prior to that, if you are infected and don't develop pneumonia then you are likely to be ok anyway, and maybe testing 10s of 1000s of people who may have similar symptoms isn't feasible for some reason. The advantage to knowing you have it would be to protect the vulnerable. But if we follow universal hygiene precautions and keep out of people's way if we catch something, then hopefully they would be safe anyway.

TL:DR I think people are understandably anxious and wanting certainty, but perhaps the gov and NHS just can't deliver that certainty with any accuracy.

I know my village has a huge number of old people living in it. It will be like a ghost town if CV19 passes through.

I'd like to chip in on statement that '80% have it mildly' that's floating around.

This is all based on the WHO report at www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Page 12 shows the following figures:
80% mild/moderate disease.

13.8% severe disease. These patients need oxygen.
6.1% critical. These patients will die without very extensive hospital care.

The kicker is in what's meant by mild/moderate. The chart on page 13 shows about half are mild and half are moderate. Moderate is defined as 'has pneumonia'. So the actual breakdown is:

40% mild
40% pneumonia
13.8% severe disease
6.1% critical

I think what the doctors are saying when they talk about 80% (pneumonia but not bad enough to need hospital admission) and what people are hearing (a bit of a sniffle, nothing to worry about) are two very different things.

On top of the 20% who actually need to be in hospital, I can see the system being gummed up by those who - in strict medical terms - don't need to be, but are still feeling iller than they ever have done.

I'm worried.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/to-hell-and-back-my-three-weeks-suffering-from-coronavirus

not sure if it has been linked already

In some ways I wish the Government had lied in the early days that we had a huge number of cases here as then the UK wouldn't be an attractive place to visit and others would have stayed away. I am not being serious but it did cross my mind how miss information in that case may have helped us stay safer for longer

A plethora of Welsh schools are going to Euro Disney today and the advice from authorities is to go or cancel and the kids lose all the money. It is the annual Welsh weekend and is well attended from around Wales.

Even with all the handwashing. We are assuming we will get it at some point. I am making sure we all take multi vitamens. We have a 3 month supply each. May or may not help. But I want to give our bodies an extra boost to tackle an infection. I eat loads more fruit and veg than my dp. He is run down anyway and in a very stressful job. So needs the boost.

Not sure if this has been said already but wouldn’t it be better to get it now whilst there are bed spaces, people taking you seriously, tracking spread etc. rather than May when we are all gonna be sick And the nhs will be in chaos! I said to a friend I almost wish I could get it now, if it’s inevitable we get it, I’d rather have it now.

I have said the same pickledbrain but then there have been reports of people catching it more than once so might not be the best idea.

Does anyone know what the plan if for isolating known cases as they rise? They can’t put them all in hospital so will they just have to self isolate at home and the rest of us just have to hope they actually do?

@wettham Haha, so first you pretended their are no accounts from survivors. Then when it turns out there are many many accounts, without reading them you decide that they’re from people with mild cases. Is your agenda here solely to ramp up the fear?

My husband’s friend is a teaching assistant and next week he, three teachers and 25 students are due to be going skiing in Italy.

His friend had assumed the trip would be cancelled but yesterday the Headteacher said that she had carried out her risk assessment and that it is fine for the trip to still go ahead.

If I was the mother of one of those children I think I would pull them out regardless of what the headteacher had said.

I think a lot of people have started panicking on this thread, and I can understand why! There's a lot we don't really know about Coronavirus yet, so information keeps changing and that also breeds uncertainty and fear.

I actually think that the testing program we have going on in the UK is working reasonably well - we are doing lots of testing, which is good. We are still doing contact tracing. There's the scheme of 100 clinics and hospitals checking people with flu like symptoms, and we are checking people in icus to try and avoid what has happened in Italy.

As others have said, PCR is a time consuming process that can't really be sped up. There are limited labs doing the testing and limited people able to do it, so I think we are doing well in testing as many people as we can.

We were told with the cases yesterday that most had a known source, only a few are community transmission - that is encouraging. We knew this week would see a spike in cases due to all the people in Italy over half term.

I do think there is a bit more the government could be doing, but I don't think we should be doing mass closures yet. And I don't think it is time to panic yet.

Practice social distancing as much as possible, wash your hands as much as possible, try to stay away from conspiracy theorists ;)

@motorina I agree, that most people are expecting a bad cold, not three plus weeks of feeling dreadful with pneumonia. If only they would publicise this properly.

the Headteacher said that she had carried out her risk assessment and that it is fine for the trip to still go ahead.

Absolute madness. In what way is she qualified to make that assessment?

It doesn’t say 20% of patients will need ventilation. It says 20% of patients will need oxygen. That’s not the same thing and it’s easier to increase capacity a bit. The NHS will still struggle to provide it, but it’s irresponsible to suggest it’s ventilation that’s needed.

I also think people don't realise how bad pneumonia can be. My mum had it, was only hospitalised over night so fairly mild but she's never been right since. She was fifty at the time, so not really elderly either.

Japan’s Olympics minister said the Games would go ahead in July as planned, saying that cancelling “would be unacceptable for the athletes”

I suspect this will change as time goes on.

Queen If I was one of the staff going I'd tell the Head "I will if you will"

New Jersey reports first case of coronavirus t.co/eUoE2b20hL

@WaterSheep I assume the headteacher hasn't made this decision alone, they'll have spoken with all the relevant people. I guess it is up to parents ultimately if they choose to let their child go or not. Even if the school didn't let the trip go ahead then they wouldn't get money back and I can just imagine all the parent complaints then!
Even though there are worried people (I float between not being worried and then being worried when I come on this thread!) Most people I speak to in real life aren't worried at all!

South Korea reports 145 new cases of coronavirus, adding to the 293 cases earlier reported t.co/eUoE2b20hL

NEW: China's National Health Commission reports 139 new cases of coronavirus and 31 new deaths t.co/eUoE2b20hL

Hmmm. So Italy closes schools but Boris is keeping them open but considering closing Parliament. Shows where his priorities lie.

Dd is back from her trip tomorrow and I'll be glad of it. But it's parents evening and a social event at both our schools tonight and I'm not happy about it. We need proper top down advice not platitudes.