Worried about coronavirus part 11

[GPwife2411]

Previous thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3837712-Worried-about-coronavirus-part-10?pg=10

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

"The big change today is that the government are officially saying they are no longer trying to stop the disease in this country as they no longer believe that to be possible."

They did not say that at all. Contact tracing is still going ahead and we are still in the containment phase. This stage may not last much longer, possibly only days - but inaccuracies are unhelpful.

No evidence at all that is widespread in London either. Still lots of tests being taken and only a minority proving positive with almost all of those having picked it up abroad.

Estimate of the death rate quoted this morning was about 1% - down on the first reports and probably going to drop further. On the cruise ship - remember that anyone - latest figures I can find are of 3711 people 706 tested positive and 4 have died. The cruise ship passengers were often elderly and with other health conditions.

Two positives near Carlisle, Cumbria are uncomfortably close.

Immunocompromised child

Where can I view this @RedToothBrush ?

It's not been explicitly spelt out but that is in effect what

Research
Contain
Delay
Mitigate

means in practice.

You will notice that research comes ahead of contain. If it were about stopping the disease it would be contain, contain, contain with no mention of delay or mitigate. Research would come into it but as a secondary feature to containment - as has been the case in China.

This is where studying language is useful because it gives away more clues than you might realise.

It's also in line with what top virologists and ex Who experts have been saying. That the messaging needs to change away from the idea of containment - to manage the publics expectations on this - to one about preparedness. It's the next stage in a pandemic scenario.

It's an admission that the horse has bolted on certain travel restrictions.

International travel is an essential part of the UK economy in terms of exports and imports and its also service based (and as much as brexiteers might tell you differently). It's also service based unlike China. That's tourism and leisure if you want me to spell it out.

If we ban travel to our nearest neighbours who are most likely to visit us, then we risk the ban being reciprocal since we are now no longer in the EU and free movement of people isn't protected...

Ironically Johnson can't afford to show his hand to the uk public with that in mind, because it will affect his plans and negotiation strategy for Brexit. (Yes folks, our coronavirus response is deeply tided to our Brexit strategy even if you aren't aware of it). Johnson wants to be able to use coronavirus as a way to hide brexity inconvenient truths. It's a handy little excuse to shift blame. It's not our brexit strategy that's damaging the economy its coronavirus. Because coronavirus is already that big a hit to the economy (we've just not realised yet).

It's fascinating to see today the news that the budget us apparently now going to be rewritten to take into account coronavirus. For those of you not aware the former chancellor has been briefing against the government saying what his budget plans where and how he was being forced by Dominic Cummings to do something different. This row has highlighted a divide in the Tory party with some wanting a more blue collar approach with breaks to those on lower incomes to satisfy their new 'red wall' constitutencies versus the wing of the party which is much more low taxation, low regulation etc. Coronavirus helps to defuse that row a bit now with no 10 and no 11 saying they've had to x, y and z because of the emergency and its only temporary. It solves a tory internal row to some extent...

Yes there are some deeply political issues here as well as the pure economic and health related ones. Issues that some people won't want to acknowledge, but they are there alright.

So now 9 dead in Washington against 21 diagnosed?

@BilboBercow yes but it got into a care home where all had significant underlying health problems. It has skewed outcomes as nearly all of the deaths are there.

I’m not panicking about this in the slightest.

On the news earlier they were making comparisons. Swine flu killed far more people than corronavirus. And while it’s not a flu the fact is that there are illnesses which have higher death rates.

TB kills 49000 people a day globally and it’s not considered a serious (as in need to contain people etc) illness.

If there are major effects from this they are going to come from people panicking and plunging the economy into free fall.

Talk of moving family members out because they work in a shop is total hysteria but this is all being fed by the press.

I am in an at risk category as I have heart failure so catching the virus could very well be detrimental to me. But there’s no way on earth I am putting my life on hold on the basis of what-if when IMO there are still far greater threats out there.

In terms of the containment, there is very good reason why it is beneficial for people to catch it. For the most part, symptoms are mild and in some cases even non-existent. As people catch the virus they will build immunity to it, and thus it will end up coming to a natural decline.

We’ve had all this before. SARS, swine flu, and every time there is talk of a global pandemic and every time people get sick for a few months and then recover.

Every illness has a death rate, even the common cold. I had swine flu and felt pretty rough, and that was before I had heart failure.

The internet has a lot to answer for here because it is a platform to spread fear and panic.

Can anybody explain if there is a likelihood this could mutate and what that might mean?

They did not say that at all. Contact tracing is still going ahead and we are still in the containment phase. This stage may not last much longer, possibly only days - but inaccuracies are unhelpful.

Just because it wasn't spelt out doesn't mean that's not what's gradually happening.

Our airports are still open and most of our cases we know about are imported.

If the intention were to stop the disease is this consistent with knowing most of our cases are imported?

Is there an acknowledgement here that at some point we reach a point where the strategy used so far can not stop the disease becoming localised or that it might already be localised?

Yes there is.

Read between the lines. The change in tone marks a change in strategy.

You will notice that research comes ahead of contain.

Except it doesn't if you read the government document. What you are saying is scaremongering nonsense and why the fuck are people copying and reposting what you're saying when it is not backed up by anything except your own imagination?

Is there any more information about University of Birmingham being closed? That’s very close to me and it’s made me a bit edgy.

I couldn’t find anything online.

I agree. Red can write a good post but it's not actually based on anything except her own thoughts and assumptions.
I agree it is scaremongering

@SagaNorenLKM where did you hear about that please?

Apparently the Hampshire case is either Winchester or Lee on Solent.

@RedToothBrush

Research doesn't come in front of the others in the Action Plan - it is Contain, Delay, (research), Mitigate. Elsewhere research is given as an ongoing process to inform policy development.

The health teams I was with today felt we were still in Contain.

Not seen that Queens but my neck of the woods.

What you are saying is scaremongering nonsense and why the fuck are people copying and reposting what you're saying when it is not backed up by anything except your own imagination?

So tell me then, why ARE the government (not me) saying that its possible that a fifth of the workforce could be off sick at its peak and we need to prepare for this?

Why are they preparing the public psychologically for this possibility?

I'm not saying this. This is government laying cards on the table about possibilities.

It's unlikely to be as bad as that, but the government still want to signal to the public that yes this is pretty serious and we should treat it as such.

That's a change in official tone

The big change today is that the government are officially saying they are no longer trying to stop the disease in this country as they no longer believe that to be possible.

the most ridiculous thing i have read today!!

You must work for the media twisting words into something completely different... if this was even remotely the case he would say we have moved on from containment. The WHO have stated that they agree with what our government has done so far and what they plan to do in the future.

To suggest the government wants it to is damn right embarrassing and this type of post is causing the hysteria around at the moment. Try and think about how these sorts of posts could affect people with high anxiety please.

If everyone on here actually just stuck to posting facts rather than opinions or twisted words there would be much more calm.

Matt Hancock @MattHancock
NEWS: Today we’ve launched our Coronavirus Action Plan - setting out our clear battle plan to research, contain, delay, and mitigate against #coronavirus in the UK.

Hmm.

@middleager

Viruses have a high mutation rate in general- that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Any organism can have changes in its genome that don't necessarily change the way it behaves. It's one of the reasons people have to have a yearly flu vaccine- the flu mutates and new strains occur all the time.

I believe the gene sequencing in Italy showed differences from the gene sequencing done in China.

Mutating doesn't mean getting more dangerous. Many mutations will have no impact on the symptoms/outcomes for humans. Mutations could even make it less fatal/serious. We could end up with multiple strains, as with flu, and it might mean vaccines need updating regularly.

He's positioning research as an ongoing process @Redtoothbrush - the action plan is quite quite clear that Contain is still the primary mode of working.

The government have taken the view to be fairly up front with people as to what the potential worst case scenario is for this virus and that will include potentially a peak of 20% of staff off sick/not able to work. It means that the population/particularly organisations can use the time we're in the "contain" phase to ensure their business continuity plans are effective for when/if we move to "delay"

So tell me then, why ARE the government (not me) saying that its possible that a fifth of the workforce could be off sick at its peak and we need to prepare for this?

I'm not saying that the government isn't telling us to prepare, of course they are and that is eminently sensible. But telling people to prepare does NOT mean they are "no longer trying to stop the disease in this country as they no longer believe that to be possible." That is a bloody irresponsible thing to state as fact.

Thank you!!

www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/18278218.first-coronavirus-case-carlisle/

@Banana0pancakes

Assume these will be in tomorrow’s figures?

This is where studying language is useful because it gives away more clues than you might realise

I have some experience of PR/ sensitive communications in humanitarian fields, and I don't agree that you can analyse the language with the certainty that you are doing.

I do agree language will be used carefully, but you cannot draw absolutes from it.