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Worried about coronavirus part 11

999 replies

GPwife2411 · 03/03/2020 19:29

Previous thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3837712-Worried-about-coronavirus-part-10?pg=10

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

OP posts:
Thread gallery
9
Furfockssake · 03/03/2020 20:57

Our Government unlikely to take decisions which don’t match up with WHO advice. As far as I can see scientists, not politicians, are controlling the process. We are still in containment phase and will be until impossible to continue contact tracing. We’re not there yet, but general message from WHO, repeated by all major politicians in this country, seems to be that we’re heading in that direction.

babychange12 · 03/03/2020 20:57

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Furfockssake · 03/03/2020 21:00

This is an interesting read - produced last year, describes in detail the likely obstacles currently occurring. Countries hoarding medical supplies etc.

RedToothBrush · 03/03/2020 21:01

You know what, I might be very wrong. My opinion - and yes it is an opinion - is biased on the idea of politicial communication being a significant factor in what is happening.

The government can not go from a declared containment strategy to a controlled management of spread strategy overnight.

There has to be a soft spot in the middle.

Why?

Because the public won't stand for such abrupt shifts and politicians don't like doing them because they represent a failure of strategy up to this point. There has to be an admission of this with an abrupt shift.

A soft change of tone is more palatable to the public and isn't quite as noticeable. Outside factors beyond the governments control can then be blamed.

The reality is at this point, unless we isolate ourselves from the rest of the world in a draconian fashion, that whilst coronavirus is epidemic anywhere we are going to face that too. And the reality is it is not feasible nor realistic to separate ourselves from the rest of the world. Hence all the fuss about no deal brexit last year. We simply do not produce enough food for our own population and we need revenue from exports.

A lesson of Brexit and Covid-19 and indeed in terms of climate change is that we should probably aim towards shorter, more self sufficient and sustainable supply chains (that encompasses both the ideology of the left and right). Not for nationalist aims and agenda, but because of the risk that any number of crisis can produce and that risk being greater if we are dependant on others.

I personally thought that the consensus on this thread, was largely that we had passed the point where it was a realistic belief that the disease wouldn't spread to this country. Clearly I've misjudged this mood.

I think our slow response and our rather inconsistent application of testing policy being managed by 111 was better understood in terms of it meaning that its likely there are many undetected cases out there spreading localised clusters.

We shall see how this plays out over the next two weeks, but the fact that the message from government is to expect a large escalation in the number if cases is not consistent with the idea of being able to keep covid-19 out.

And yes we do want to be on a fairly similar course to our nearest neighbours in how long this lasts because we don't want to be economically damaged longer than another country or be in a situation where like China we cut ourselves off via draconian measures at harder expense to the economy only for us to be hit with another wave of imported cases later on.

Managing the situation in line with our nearest neighbours (and trading partners) makes sense for both economic and health reasons.

I didn't think I was being terribly controversial in saying how things are moving along and the dynamic situation means we are being actively prepared for the next stage. That's what political communication is all about. Preparing and conditioning the public to accept certain ideas and messages.

Furfockssake · 03/03/2020 21:04

I suspect the WHO and our government have known for a while it was always going to be impossible to contain it indefinitely seeing as how it’s fairly contagious and is airborne. But they contained it and delayed it until we were better prepared, and we now wait until containment is no longer affective.

ShanghaiDiva · 03/03/2020 21:04

@SansaSnark
The extent of what the Chinese have done is not really covered by the media and I think most people are unaware of the restrictions in place. Medical personnel have gone to Wuhan and the Chinese have been able to ensure supplies are there in the supermarket both in Hubei and other provinces.
We are all aware that penalties for non compliance may be severe eg failure to go to a hospital if you have a fever. As a one party system it is easy for China to quickly and effectively introduce new policies and this is vital in a time of national crisis.
I think the attitude in China is one of personal sacrifice for the greater good eg people self isolating for 14 days because they see that the control measures are working. I have read lots of posts on mumsnet where x says I would leave my house as I live in a rural area etc. In China it is quite clear that rules are not open to individual interpretation and this is what has made the containment measures successful.

SomethingSpecialzz · 03/03/2020 21:04

@babychange12 Yep your company has been named in the dailyfail

SansaSnark · 03/03/2020 21:09

@ShanghaiDiva Thank you for replying!

I think it's really interesting how much cultural differences come into play in these situations.

Nacreous · 03/03/2020 21:10

ofwarren

I had a look at the article you posted in the last thread. www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 - for reference

They have a very wide range for young (15-49) and of those 67/557 were severe (12.0%) Numbers for age under 15 are so low as to seem highly statistically insignificant (1/9). 50-64 is 51/292 (17.5%) and 65+ was 41/153 (28.8%). So there are severe cases in the "young" but they are a vastly lower % than at older ages.

Then if you have a look at this article:
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Which is quite user friendly but referenced to some nice, fairly high sample size (circa 40k participants) studies, you can see that when stratified by age young people might still get a severe strain but the likelihood of death is vastly reduced.

However, the death rates in those who have underlying respiratory conditions is a lot higher. But this data is not stratified by age AND health condition at the same time. So it might well be that most people who have underlying respiratory conditions are older and it is the fact that they are old is what is increasing the death rate. Or it might be the other way round - that older people arw more likely to have comorbities and this is what makes the death rate higher in those groups. We just can't tell that yet from the data.

The reduced number of severe cases and deaths proportionally in young people does give me some comfort. It's also worth noting that for a significant proportion of the same comorbities were undisclosed or unknown and that could skew results significantly as well. I have asmtha and am under 30 so am keen to get hold of the double stratified data as soon as I can!

(For reference as to my interpretation of these papers, I am now an accountant but I have a degree in cell biology (natural sciences), so I am experienced at reading papers but a little rusty.)

ShanghaiDiva · 03/03/2020 21:10

China is also trying to limit a second wave of imported cases with 14 day quarantine for all arrivals, with those coming from Iran, Japan, Korea and Italy not being allowed to self quarantine at home.
This is for everyone, you don’t need to have any symptoms.

Dusty01 · 03/03/2020 21:13

I am really worried that if they change the law now to enable classes to be larger in schools - the law will never revert back to what it was and we’ll be stuck with large classes forever (or whilst under a Tory government)

ofwarren · 03/03/2020 21:16

@nacreous thank you so much for that!
It makes much more sense the way you have written it.

ShanghaiDiva · 03/03/2020 21:17

@SansaSnark
Yes, big cultural differences! Never have I been so happy not to live in a democracy!

SansaSnark · 03/03/2020 21:19

@Dusty01Me too.

I do think this has the potential to be used to sneak in a lot of stuff we wouldn't want to happen and would get lots of objection under normal circumstances.

I think the government's motivations are massively complicated.

crispycracker · 03/03/2020 21:20

@RedToothBrush @ShanghaiDiva @GPwife2411@ofwarren

and so many others - thanks for your posts- they are really insightful.

I am so worried at the moment but nobody around me seems to be as worried. I feel like taking the kids out of school and stayng in the house until summer.

Nacreous · 03/03/2020 21:22

ofwarren Happy to help! I hadn't managed to find any studies with the severe % data in, so was glad to read it!

Nicepud · 03/03/2020 21:23

I understand the reasons why they wouldn't want to just close whole schools down.

But I don't understand why they don't allow those who could easily keep dc at home to do so.

Seems silly to fine parents for doing this when it would reduce pressure on schools and make it safer for any remaining dc/teachers.

Mummug · 03/03/2020 21:23

Thank you @RedToothBrush. Your posts are very insightful and make perfect sense.
Just thinking about another thread on here this afternoon - OP was contacted today by NHS England as she had been on a flight from Germany last week and one of the passengers has tested positive for CV. She said "The advice was to self isolate if any of the common symptoms appear. It was all very vague".
Now, for containment, I would have thought that she would have been automatically tested to save her inadvertently infecting others before any symptoms may or may not arise. That, to me, is containment. Or maybe I have misunderstood and the virus only manifests itself in the presence of symptoms, but I thought asymptomatic people can, in fact, pass it on? Either way, I would want tested if I had been on that plane. Too many vulnerable people around me to take any risks.

Furfockssake · 03/03/2020 21:23

@crispycracker we’re watching closely and wondering about risk levels - as soon as it starts escalating and the Government abandon containment I would think about pulling DS out of school

ofwarren · 03/03/2020 21:23

Literally what I'm doing @crispycracker
Thank god we have a large garden is all I can say 😂

Furfockssake · 03/03/2020 21:25

Increasing class sizes is only likely to create a Petri dish of the virus - and with children being notoriously slack with their hygiene I can only imagine it would concentrate and spread the virus quicker. It seems the opposite of social distancing to me.

cocodomingo · 03/03/2020 21:25

@ShanghaiDiva I think the Chinese response has been incredible. People do not realise how ballsy it is to recognize and predict future risk and make incredibly constraining decisions for the public good and put life before economy too. I think law, ethics and policy of regulation courses will be discussing this outbreak for years to come

anywinewilldonow · 03/03/2020 21:28

About asymptomatic spread, do you remember the initial cluster of cases in Germany? The woman who returned to China was thought to have passed it on in Germany while asymptomatic, but it turned out that she had actually had mild symptoms at that point.

So although it is good news that there is not much asymptomatic transmission going on, it doesn't help us very much if the initial symptomatic stage can be easily dismissed or overlooked.

OhDearWhyAmIFatterly · 03/03/2020 21:28

I wonder how the GP community has been briefed to deal with potential cases....
I went to the docs Monday mor I g with what I assumed was an ear infection. The doc was a locum I think, however, she asked me ZERO questions. Just sat while I explained my symptoms. I was really shocked she didn't ask if I had been abroad, to Italy, been in contact with anyone who has....
Surely, that should be the bare minimum GPs are doing???

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