Worried about coronavirus part 10

[GPwife2411]

Previous thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3836973-To-be-worried-about-coronavirus-part-9

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Apparently handwashing can reduce your risk of infection by 37%.

Don't ask me where I saw it though. I just remember seeing it.

I was talking children as a group.

Its clear already what you are repeating here.

Individual children could be superspreaders.

Children (as a group) are notoriously great sharers of germs through their handiness, licking, and other nefarious activities, what Im questionning is that they had previously been referred to as superspreaders, by their nature, but as a group they are not, despite as a group being mucky little pups.

I inappropriately used the word 'cannot'. Don't know why that got in there.

I'm quite cynical of those people who are very optimistic. Who could be so positive with so many known unknowns?

I feel positive that it hasnt spread in particular areas identified early on. Really positive.

San Antonio mayor declares state of emergency in a bid to keep Japan cruise ship evacuees in quarantine at Air Force base. More #coronavirus updates: t.co/tEl2axRKzy t.co/lwvdx9yLY0

No shortages of loo roll either.

So every arse in the kingdom shalt breath a sigh of relief:)

Whats with the shortage of bog roll's anyway????

username call 111 and say you live in brighton and feel sick

@Horehound that's good to know.

DD is asthmatic and has chronic lung disease. Fortunately she has been much better since she had prophylactic antibiotics for 6 months last winter. Her respiratory consultant has suggested I try stopping her preventative inhaler (Flixotide) over the summer months to see how she does without it. I'll see how things develop with the virus, but I'm inclined to keep her on it. I don't think it's the time to challenge her lungs to see how they'll cope without it.

Who could be so positive with so many known unknowns?

Why worry about something if there is no evidence of an impeding disaster?

This, of course, relies on you being aware of evidence for both outcomes.

Which leads me to, its easy not to worry about something if you are not interested and not paying attention to the detail.

DH has long said it must be nice to be oblivious to the rest of the world and to live in bubble where you don't notice things.

The thing is, the advice to carry on as normal is what the mass of the population has done, and each area it comes into has been contained so far, once it was identified, like the case of the superspreader. That seems very encouraging. I fail to see how it cant be.

What is the worst case scenario, in terms of how long the supply chain could be knocked out?

Is there any ballpark answer for that?

Spreading unchecked how long would it take to get to a % of the population where police and emergency services are reduced?

Are there any rough guesses?

Whettham people do disclose what they do on here if they want. It's an anonymous forum.

Re super spreaders I think the cross over in meaning is confusing people.

We know children super spread general bugs. We've all seen the experiment with dc in room, ultra violet light etc after.

However super spreading has also referred to the ability of a person shedding this virus like Brighton man. That... We don't know.

What's the saying

Ignorance is bliss

Yes, super spreaders in this context is about super shedding, that children as a group are not, despite being super sharers of germs!

Does anyone know if people coming back from Venice last weekend should be self isolating? I can't find anything specific about Venice online.

I keep reading that shelves are bare ... happy to report that in my part of Berks there’s loo roll a plenty :)

@Wehttam
Actually a flurry of posters appeared in our compound reminding us to wash our hands...but the prompt action taken to close everything, when we had 2 suspected cases in a city of 7 million clearly helped!
Measures have been tough and in true Chinese style, there are no exceptions. Ironically where I live the govt is more concerned about arrivals from Italy and South Korea than the spread within China. Koreans are being detained on arrival at the airport and then quarantined (no self isolation at home) regardless of whether they have a fever or symptoms.

People in bubbles - very true! What feels like my whole extended family tbh... It seems surreal that so many people report what would seem to be obviously needing tested and the protocol is nahhhhhhh your fineeeeee

Let’s say it’s really not that bad for most people, and let’s say if your identified as a carrier then it has A LOT of implications (national numbers, Nhs, etc) well it seems that the govt are putting off these tests and keeping a lot under the radar

@persin. Huh? Say what?

@mintyneb thanks for the update on the cystic fibrosis clinic.
so the message basically is carry on as usual

I feel like there might be some slightly magical thinking happening here.

It's true that they did a good job contact tracing around the Brighton case. But the UK has seemed on the back foot for weeks in terms of screening at airports, stopping flights, etc.

Other countries have implemented temperature checks and stopped flights much sooner than the UK, and even those countries are experiencing increasing numbers day by day.

The logical conclusion is that the virus will spread in the UK.

They say folks have been on holiday ..but why aren't the flights and airports clarified , we flew back from Tenerife on Saturday , hardly anyone wore a mask in the airport despite some people from the affected hotel being allowed home ...... were they on our flight .......in our queue in the airport . At least if details were released we'd be able to keep a keen eye on any symptoms we might get . We did try to get masks , but none were available in any chemist in the town we were in

Whats with the shortage of bog roll's anyway????

Bog roll is short in Japan, South Korea and Italy so people are aware thats its a big deal.

Its to do with supply chain shock and being bulky.

As its large it takes more deliveries to replenish stock if there is an unusual run on it. Normally supermarkets will plan to buy in a certain amount based on regular demand. They won't hold much stock because its not something they can store surplus easily.

Thus its a product which is particularly prone to a supply chain shock (where supply or demand has an unusual spike which is not expected, planned for or predicted).

If I have learnt nothing else from Brexit, I have learnt a lot about supply chains. Particularly bog roll.

We import most bog roll so the supply chain is not a short one - thus it takes some time to get to the shelves and extra demand elsewhere in Europe may affect supplies in the UK if extra supplies is sent to areas where there is a shortage due to panic buying.

I feel like talking about bog roll supply chains on MN is now one of my specialised subjects.

@ExhaustedGrinch only if they have symptoms- however mild. Venice is above the Piza-Florence-Rimini line, but it's not one of the specific lockdown areas.

@allthesharks if I remember correctly I think it would be at least six months before there'd be any supply chain issues to consumers for salbutamol (I actually worked for supply chain and for salbutamol!). There's actually 4 secondary manufacturing sites for it. I wouldn't be concerned about that at all :)