Worried about coronavirus part 10

[GPwife2411]

Previous thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3836973-To-be-worried-about-coronavirus-part-9

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

@RhubarbTea Obviously it is concerning. My Granny (in her 80s) lives in the area, and I am trying not to be overly concerned for her, as well. I do think it's important to keep yourself informed, and keep an eye on your own symptoms, but realistically, I do think your chances of infection are low.

For those interested in testing accuracy, this source suggests 3% of tests have false negatives: www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228250

False negatives are obviously a problem, but hopefully our current testing program in the UK is alert to the possibility of false negatives and is giving people sensible advice.

While we're criticising Trump for his handling, our boy this side of the pond isn't covering himself with glory either:

No 10 and Department of Health clash over access to EU pandemic warning system in wake of coronavirus

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/01/downing-street-department-health-locked-row-access-eu-pandemic/

Matt Hancock's department wanted to retain membership of the Early Warning and Response System (EWRS) as part of theEU-UK future relationship deal
– but Number  10 said no,
....
Senior health advisers warned that exiting the EWRS
– which has helped coordinate the response to the virus and played a vital role during the bird flu outbreak –
would put public health at risk.

However, the British negotiating team, which reports to Boris Johnson, did not want to blur the UK's request for a basic, Canada-style trade deal, it is claimed.
....
The Telegraph understands that Mr Hancock sought permission early last month to travel to Brussels to discuss coronavirus with his EU counterparts,
but was refused by Downing Street.

The UK retains access to the EWRS system until Jan 1 next year as part of its standstill transition deal.

@Horehound

I don't sense hysteria on these threads. Just common sense advice. Many are concerned. I myself have cancer and have had lung related issues, and I want to keep up with what is happening. Many others are in the same boat. I would hope that those in a low risk group would also stay aware and take all reasonable steps to reduce the spread.
Personally, I see Easter as being a critical time. We have seen an escalation after half term, and Easter will be worse.
Hopefully if we can get through Easter, things will calm down in summer. Keeping things under control until then means everyone taking this seriously and being responsible.

You are desperate for them to call it a pandemic! Seems like you almost want it to be!

I'm not desperate, the virus will continue to spread whether it's named a pandemic or not. I was just pointing out that the virus fits their definition of a pandemic.

My friend was just saying that she thinks it would be better to get it now and build up some immunity to it, I did try to point out that no one really knows the long term implications of it yet, or if it does mutate if that immunity will still stand anyway. Plus that I would rather not catch it at all. The next few weeks will be the tipping point either way I think, obviously hoping for containment.

Morocco reports first case of coronavirus t.co/eUoE2b20hL

@allthesharks

I agree, its not right, as it highlights the desperate pressures in all in school each day that theres no time for a few minutes group handwash, that they HAVE to go straight to dinner hall withiut either a handwash or toiletting opportunity.

Its very poor for children to be treated this way, and does lead to bladder health issued

All these negative tests... how can testing for a NOVEL virus, thats completely new and never been studied be completely accurate? Any medics on here that can put it into layman’s?

OK so, once the virus was discovered, scientists quickly figured out its genetic code and they use that to make a test unique to that virus.

They do this by using something called 'primers' which are designed to bind to the virus' genetic code and make copies. This amplifies any matching bits in the patient sample, if it's positive, enough so that it can be detected. If it's negative, it won't amplify and nothing will be detected.

It's called PCR (or technically RT-PCR) and reliable if done properly and is used as a method for testing for lots of things.

No wonder school children are super-spreaders of infectious diseases
Little chance to be otherwise, poor little buggers

Yeah, I agree this isn't coming at a great time politically- international co-operation is important and we can't allow brexit negotiations to affect the decisions our government is making.

I think it's already fairly clear that economic factors are playing into the government's current decision making.

I do wonder how people convince themselves this is just mass hysteria and over reacting, when the Government and the WHO are both saying that things are almost certainly going to get worse. We may or may not be able to contain the virus, the Government thinks not. But with people insisting on being blasé and continuing to travel and not take any extra precautions just means that if it kicks off it will be them that gets it first. If 60% of the population are likely to get it in some form, it will be the 40% who wash hands diligently and stay away from crowds that are less likely to get it. I don't normally read the Telegraph but they have a very interesting article on there about how the 'Keep calm and Carry on' brigade aren't helping in this situation.

#Washington: King County to buy motel to house #coronavirus patients in isolation

#Coronavid19 #COVID19
t.co/AFVrEGR91e

From the previous thread someone said that 40 seemed low and they were expecting 50 or so. I'm really confused. Why would just ten extra cases seem more acceptable and likely? And why is 40 seemed low and 50 would be high??

Because we had 12 new cases yesterday and only 4 today.

All the cases today are people who have returned from Italy.

So far we've only had one returnee from Italy who has infected other people in the UK.

That either means that those returnees self isolated straight away and didn't infect anyone OR they infected someone random who hasn't been traced OR the results of contact tracing have yet to come through.

My suspicion is its the last option because you'd expect a returnee to infect at least a family member.

I am expecting more in the next day or two.

I'm also expecting that at some point we will have our own health care establishment have an outbreak. With devastating consequences for those affected by it.

The economy has huge potential to inflict mass damage to people. It's a balance.

We were told that children cannot be super spreaders by the experts. They may have poor hygiene but even so they are not super spreaders, or so wevetbeen told

Sansa The uk governments slow response and failure to be proactive in travel bans and restricting access wreaks of Trade deal nerves.

Today I’m feeling so confused, mentally. I mean, I went to a supermarket where everything was normal, shelves full, people chatting, nothing different. It made me feel a bit of normality and a feeling of calm.

I’m sitting with BBC news on tonight and I feel like the facts are screaming at us that this is a HUGE problem and it’s getting worse..

I feel so frustrated with people who are dismissing this but tbh I can’t blame them as there is nothing clear cut to indicate the seriousness of this.

Possibly after the “plan” announcement tomorrow but I doubt it I have a feeling it will be very wishy washy

@RedToothBrush I know the Scottish case self isolated. Don't be pessimistic, maybe the four all did :)

Policeman, fireman test positive for coronavirus in Rome t.co/zWzA5QRhpV t.co/KTmq2jd1a2

Yes, we get new cases coming in, but cases increasing here, given its supposed spread rate, just isn't happening!!

people were going about shopping but there were no alcohol gels available at all.
i might have been calm on the outside, as might others, but i was still concerned, and washed my hands thoroughly when i got home.

alcohol hand gels i mean

We were told that children cannot be super spreaders by the experts. They may have poor hygiene but even so they are not super spreaders, or so wevetbeen told

I thought we'd been told that there was 'no evidence' that they can be super spreaders. This does not mean that they can not be super spreaders. Just that it hasn't been proved they can be super spreaders.

@Furfockssake I didn't need to convince myself. It's just that out of 70million people there are 40 cases....
Ok there might be a few more but it's hardly the end of us. I'm sure more old folk die of the cold than this

Aujourd’hui j’ai fait les courses plus de pattes, surgelés , plus d’eau , plus rien a vu d’œil je pense cette histoire de coronavirus fait très peur à la France , faites vos courses car là sa va être chacun pour sa peau !!! #coronavirusfr #coronavirus #Coronavirusparis t.co/5A3ARnfbTV

Video of the panic buying in France

Any government has to balance economic impact and protecting public health

However, a large number of deaths also damages the economy.
with business being disrupted and people being too afraid to go on holiday or eat out etc

We've already seen the stock markets crashing, shares hit of firms expected to be most affected
5% off UK pension pots already, on average

The UK and US governments have decided on a Corona policy that is less pro-active than governments in many other countries, e.g in the rest of Europe

That may change in the UK, if cases get into the hundreds and deaths start mounting up