Worried about coronavirus part 10

[GPwife2411]

Previous thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3836973-To-be-worried-about-coronavirus-part-9

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

ofwarren do we know if that included Cruise Ship or not?

Adding my thanks then, to @ofwarren, for being our news updater.

(The cake is just because cake is nice).

Part of the problem is thinking about it on a country by country basis. If you aren't limiting travel it is a global problem. Borders are just invisible to a virus. There is no consistency in approach which is confusing for people.

I won’t be buying any masks either. Will leave for those who really need them.

Missed the boat on stocking up on hand gel too! Managed to find an old bottle and gave it to DH who goes in to London in the tube.

Bought some antiseptic spray but it doesn’t have alcohol in so not sure if effective at all. Says it kills norovirus. May help clean steering wheel etc.

Guardian live feed has more details re deaths in Italy. All were aged between 63 and 95 and had underlying health conditions. The high number of serious cases are partly due to the ages of people affected.

I think this helps put the Italian figures in context.

So they swabbed 386 people and found 12 positives. That's a pretty good hit rate

That's what I was thinking. They don't seem to have tested many people between yesterdays update and todays compared.

Is there a link to the plan published today?

Any news of the areas yet? Bank manager left the room 😂

@feesh Thanks so much for coming back to me. I really appreciate it. We will make a decision nearer the time, but it was already in my mind that, if things came to the worst, the medical care we would receive in UAE would be much better than we would receive the UK!

"I found that there are 12 million (11,989,322) people aged 65 and above in the UK (Age UK, link below) so let's take that figure and work out 1% of 12 million"

The 1% death rate is for the population as a whole, but the older age groups have much higher death rates

China death rates - but developed countries may be lower - are:

3.6% Age 60-69
8.0% Age 70-79
14.8% Age 80+

However, the government worst case for infection rate is about 50%, so worst case 6 million aged 60+ would be infected, but too little data to say death rate for 60+

Maybe we can very roughly estimate worst case deaths over the whole population of 67 million @ 50% infection worst case rate @ 1% death rate
That's worst case 335,000 EXTRA deaths in the UK
(assuming other deaths wouldn't decrease)

Just found out DD’s nursery is closing for a deep clean because of D&V..... 🤨

I have to agree about the UK being very grubby. I was telling someone yesterday how in Japan you regularly see cleaners around the stations cleaning handrails and such like, at various intervals throughout the day. I went to Lithuania a while back and that was spotless too.

So, for example, I think something TFL could do is employ some extra cleaners, or offer overtime, and have people wiping things down and raising the hygiene standards. I watched a benefits programme the other day, and a guy got a job cleaning inside trains and I think he was allowed something like 3 minutes to clean the whole train! We need to up our standards I think. Not that I can see it happening.

I wonder if they were contacts tested or the experimental sampling of pneumonia/cough/fever cases?

So they swabbed 386 people and found 12 positives. That's a pretty good hit rate

Or a pretty bad/scary hit rate depending on the angle you are looking from...

My hands are already cracked to bleeding from all the happy birthday handwashing. Moisturiser isn't making a blind bit of difference. And I'm sick of hearing the kids singing happy birthday.

• So they swabbed 386 people and found 12 positives. That's a pretty good hit rate

That's what I was thinking. They don't seem to have tested many people between yesterdays update and todays compared.*

These are probably swabs taken over the weekend, on Saturday or Sunday, so low figures. There won't be any of the contact tracing from Sunday's jump in there, likely just 111 travel related ones.

I really hope it's not the sentinel screening numbers, because if you extrapolate that to the population it means over 2 million of us are infected 😂

If death rate rises to 2% - quite feasible if mitigation fails and too many cases at once for the NHS to cope -

then that's about 670,000 extra deaths in the UK

Yep that’s a good idea with the extra cleaners. Also in airports? So constantly cleaning the loos/check in desks/ handrails. That would be reassuring.

So much more could be done rather than just telling us to wash our hands

Slightly reassuring to see that Italy had no new cases, and HK haven’t for a few days...
Do you think that’s because lockdown / school closures are working?

Wonder why they are suddenly testing so few when previously they were testing 1200 ish

Dds school has arranged for door handles to be disinfected daily. Daily! Surely that's the bare minimum anyway?!

This is, I think, the first day they haven’t specified where.

It’s pure speculation, but i wonder whether there’s a cluster developed (eg around the person in Haslemere £ and they are trying to avoid panic locally.

Wonder why they are suddenly testing so few when previously they were testing 1200 ish

Presumably the 100 GP surgeries running tests on those with flu symptoms weren't open over the weekend (today's results will have been tested a few days ago).

It feels for me as if the death rate is overstated as a %.

Most people who have symptoms don't qualify for testing as haven't been to specific locations or in contact with specific people and are being excluded from the 'people who have the virus' numbers?

Italy don't report numbers until about 6pm (or is it 5pm? Something like that).