In the Royal College of Physicians conference video which we had on an early thread (the CMO being the last speaker in a 2+ hour session) one of the points made by a speaker was that pandemic planning had mistakenly been done on the assumption that any pandemic would necessarily be of influenza, rather than any other virus type. It’s interesting to see how the assumptions in the 2011 preparedness strategy fail to match the reality of a novel coronavirus pandemic:
Responding to an influenza pandemic
The UK will continue to maintain stockpiles and distribution arrangements for antiviral medicines and antibiotics sufficient for a widespread and severe pandemic. (There are - can be - no stocks of antivirals targeted at this virus).
Health services should continue to prepare for up to 30% of symptomatic patients requiring assessment and treatment in usual pathways of primary care, assuming the majority of symptomatic cases do not require direct assistance from healthcare professionals. (In the present situation usual pathways of primary care can’t safely be used, hence an unplanned need for hospital assessment pods, & drive-by testing).
Between 1% and 4% of symptomatic patients will require hospital care, depending on how severe the illness caused by the virus is. There is likely to be increased demand for intensive care services. (These assumptions based on the impact of flu do not appear to provide adequate planning for a novel coronavirus - or at least this one).