To be worried about Coronavirus - Part 8

[KenAdams]

Old thread

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Worldometer Map

BNO News

Link to WHO report

[Post edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

What medication has worked in Wuhan? HIV antivirals? Some old anti malarial medication? Is big pharma ramping up production and how much stock do we have? In all likelihood this will deal with the majority of cases as it did for swine flu but I would like to know where we are with this.

I always find it interesting to see how the planet would clean itself up if we weren't poisoning it. Interesting and sobering.

@Bercows my DCs high school doesn't even have soap in the loos and hasn't for months and months. It's been raised countless times but still nothing has been done.

I saw that about the pollution and found it fascinating and alarming how much crap China is pumping out. My friend lives there and he is involved with factories. One guy there was using £1 sunglasses as welding goggles. It's a different world it seems.

No hand gel available here in Normandy yesterday. Managed to get some 70% alcohol in a pharmacy though.
I'm wondering what will happen at schools tomorrow, if we'll get full classes or whether some parents will be taking kids out. We're both secondary teachers and our 3 DC are all at primary school. Our youngest is 3.3 and in first year of nursery after being with a childminder, he's picked up everything going so far this year 😕 I've been on at the boys all week about hand washing, but they say there's no soap in their school toilets... Even if the children won't be that ill there's a lot of parents, grandparents and childminders it can be spread to.

Red toothbrush did the link on an earlier thread

If 17% of cases need hospital intervention and they are expecting up to 60% of people to be infected, then that's 6.7 million people in the uk who would need hospital intervention.
shit.

The school at the centre of the Swansea case has been named as Bishops Gore Comp. Theyre not closing and haven't been cleaned over the weekend 🤷🏻‍♀️

They are hardly at the "centre" of it. The father of a pupil has been diagnosed. No-one directly in the school.

Besides, the headteacher wouldn't close the school if it was on fire. Or spend money.

Do you know when the figures get updated on the Worldometer as according to the BNO Live Map there have been no new changes since 3am this morning, either that's a good sign because there are no new cases, deaths etc or a bad one and they are lumping all the information together to give a one off figure later today.

I thought this was an interesting post from virological.org - re the “warm weather/will it be a seasonal virus?” issue:

Secondary spread in the tropics or Southern Hemisphere is NOT evident to date. Whether or not this occurs, either in Brazil, Nigeria, or anywhere else a patient with the virus has landed, will give us a good indication whether or not COVID-19 will thrive when warmer weather comes to the Northern Hemisphere.

We also need to be aware that respiratory agents that lose their foothold in warmer and moist climate may seed throughout the area invisibly and silently, only to erupt everywhere when temperatures later drop. This was the pattern with the H2 flu in 1957. It arrived in California in May-June, then virtually disappeared, only to erupt with a volcano of cases on October and November of 1957. California, then 14 million in population, was estimated to have 1.2 million cases of flu in one week in November, an attack rate of 8% in one week (California Health Survey 1957-58).

We need to caution about declaring victory too soon, even if this proves to be seasonal, and letting down our guard. COVID-19 is already too widespread globally for that.

William R. Gallaher, Ph.D.
Professor of Microbiology, Immunology and Parasitology, Emeritus
LSU School of Medicine, New Orleans

Genevamaybe - my friends in Basel were quite annoyed the carnival was cancelled. The press in CH seem to be supporting the government largely as usual. Given proximity to Italy I think all the measures there make sense. But here in Britain given London is a powerhouse and most people travel in cramped conditions on the tube (ideal conditions for viruses) would it really make sense to cancel gatherings of 1000 or more? Probably not at this point? Also the Swiss are much more conservative and obedient and much more likely to follow WHO guidance like the Germans. In the UK for most people it is business as usual and they think the press is catastrophising and the WHO crying wolf. They think there will be a “tamiflu” shortly and it will all blow over.

Hand soap can be very cheap. Donate some to the school. I’ve done this before but at a playgroup held in a village hall.

Although if you want some local gossip - the child spent last weekend with his unwell father and then attended school all week. And the daughter of the family allegedly had a house party last weekend. I have no idea if these things are true though. But my daughter insists they are...

@Jenasaurus - Info was updated just over an hour ago. Iran's death figures were included.

@Jenasaurus BNO are having a few hours off. They said they have been updating 24/7 for a month.

That's awful about the lack of soap but I've just asked dd and there's no soap in their's either. Disgusting.

I recall reading (somewhere?) that the scientists in Italy had sequenced the genome there and were able to track how it had travelled by its mutations, but as far as I know, it has not changed enough to be considered a different strain.

Thank you pumpkin The BNO map has it still listed as 43 deaths, I tend to use that as they have the source listed on a timeline but the worldometer map seems more up to date

that explains it then offwarren :)

"
Requesting that people in the very worst affected age brackets position themselves directly in harms way is a HUGE ask"
@AvocadoOwl

There was a WHO spokeswoman on BBC News this morning who said, I quote, that this was "an excellent idea". Surely if it's being endorsed by the WHO then that is a good sign of the disease's real impact? She specifically referred to retired staff so she was aware of the age bracket potentially being discussed

Surely if it's being endorsed by the WHO then that is a good sign of the disease's real impact?

Whether WHO are endorsing the idea or not, the figures don't lie. The older a person is the more likely they are to succumb from the virus.

Besides, the headteacher wouldn't close the school if it was on fire. Or spend money.

Exactly, but that's the kind of thing that should be concerning, no?

They also had a school trip to California including SF over half term and several pupils and staff are now ill with cold symptoms. Won't be tested though, obviously, as it's not a hot spot

We don't have access to the full statisitcs, though. It could be that people who are older are more likely to have pre-existing respiratory conditions, and that may be why they are more vulnerable to the virus. It is possible that a healthy 75 year old is no more vulnerable than a healthy 55 year old. You would really need to drill down into the data to find that out, though, which obviously we can't do.

They also had a school trip to California including SF over half term and several pupils and staff are now ill with cold symptoms.

It is a difficult one, though. We do get colds and thus cold symptoms in February. So that isn't necessarily anything.

I am concerned about the virus in a worldwide sense, but in a more personal sense I am just watching and waiting...

@oakmaiden, exactly.