Coronavirus is on my literally.

[1second]

www.google.com/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-coronavirus-gp-surgery-brighton-21468478.amp

My GP, at the bottom of my road. WIBU to panic now? I have 2 young kids (1 baby.) I’m more concerned about them... 😕

My take on the news is probably affected a bit by the fact that I have a nasty bug of the "is this a bad cold or flu?" variety. And although I have told my work that I'm contagious and not fit to be in, there are still going to be some things that I have to attend. Complete isolation isn't an option, so I have to dose up, compulsively hand wash and alcohol gel, cover my mouth and carry a sealed container for tissues. It's hard to NOT spread germs.

*@Aridane

This virus is more contagious and more deadly than the flu. We have no vaccine and no immunity to this virus.

Please educate yourself*

As I said, 13,000 people died of flu in the UK in 2013/2014.

28,330 deaths in 2014/15.

Death rate of 1%.

Plus we have the highest rates of death in the Europe from pneumonia (outside of Romania and another country).

This season, however, we are doing well - Since October, only 4,000 +people with confirmed flu have been admitted to hospitals in England with 70 confirmed deaths.

Hopefully as the efficacy of the flu vaccine increases and availability and take up, the annual death toll from seasonal flue will decrease.

So Perspective please. Please educate yourself.

Garden variety flu and pneumonia is a bigger killer in the UK vs coronavirus and, sadly, is likely to remain so.

@Aridane

You’ve er...tagged yourself....

@Aridane I can't actually be arsed to argue with you. It should be common knowledge at this point that this virus is worse than the flu for very obvious reasons.

It's at least twice as deadly as the flu.
It spreads at 2/3x the rate.
It has a higher rate of people needing critical care.
The pneumonia that develops is not normal pneumonia it also attacks the immune system.

Unlike the flu:
We have no vaccine and no one is immune.

@Bunnyfuller - I was quoting @floatygoat’s post (who was in term tagging me) but had a bold fail

(seems you have to asterisk each paragraph to get bold and not just the beginning and the end of the text)

I am very slow and stupid today with fatigue, struggling to read and wondered if anyone could tell me where I'm going wrong with my understanding?

Did the Imperial analysis predict a possible death rate at 18% for infected people? But I thought it was supposed to be predicted at 1-2%

18% seems horrifically high - what have I picked up wrong?

The 18% is currently the actual rate based on officially reported figures. Its likely to be wrong though since there are likely to be hundreds of thousands of unreported cases.

The imperial college study has concluded with 95% certainty that if 200 people were infected in the UK then between 1 and 8 people would die.

In all my many years in the planet I've never seen entire cities quarantined, evacuations etc. We didn't even see this for SARS or the Ebola virus. There's something going on.

I'm not prone to hysteria but this resonates with me. I don't think we have the full picture from the Chinese authorities or our own government for that matter. Remember what matters most is to them is that we all keep working and spending so that the wheels of the economy keep turning. The situation in China is already starting to have economic consequences with factories and shops shutting and people not out spending.

I think the Chinese are treating this so seriously as they were criticised over their handling of previous viruses.

The risk in the UK is low.

Sorry, OP, I see a second clinic, belonging to the same surgery in Brighton, has been closed, due to Coronavirus.

Good to know that Parker know more than the UK government.

The government have stated the risk is low

I'm a bit worried, but I'm in Brighton and our DC has asthma. Our local school has talked to the kids and is making them all wash hands before eating and reminding them to wash hands during the day.
I've decided no to go to my regular co-worker place this week and to WFH... till the dust settles a bit.

No the government hasn't said the risk is low. They have said the threat to the UK is serious and imminent. Then they have backtracked and said they only said that to implement more restrictive quarantine measures and actually the risk is now moderate but the chances of any particular individual being infected is low

So no, they haven't said that at all and by minimising the potential risk it causes everyone to be at greater risk.

Agree Parker. The government has said the risk to individuals is low. There are 8 confirmed cases in the UK today and the Singapore conference guy has recovered.

Those who have compromised health are most affected and their fears shouldn't be discounted. But the vast majority who contract it survive. It's prevalence is low in the UK right now and can be traced to direct contact with a few people.

Based on the World Health Organization’s declaration that this is a public health emergency of international concern, the UK Chief Medical Officers have raised the risk to the public from low to moderate. This permits the government to plan for all eventualities. The risk to individuals remains low.

When they say the risk to individuals remains low, they mean, they don't want to implement any national plans yet. Not that we're at low risk.

When do we become high risk?

Already got a headline on my phone that the super-transmitter as he's being called, has infected 11 people now. So where are the extra 2? France or Brighton?

Theres a difference between the risk to the public as a whole - currently officially at moderate but the government yesterday said "imminent and severe" and the risk that any particular individual which is still low (because of - you know - probability). The chance that Joe Bloggs of 98 Smith Street gets it is still currently one in many millions.

They linked the transmission from this one man who was at a conference in Singapore. A British man I believe. He is believed to have contracted the virus there. He then travelled to the French Alps where 5 people sharing the chalet with him have since tested positive. He then went about his business to Brighton on a flight (whether he lives there or not I don't know), but managed to contaminate a further 4 Britons in Brighton. So that's 9. Now it's supposedly 11 he has contaminated? If you're travelling all around the place, you're going to contaminate everyone everywhere.

And all the while, this poor dude probably had zero clue that he had the virus and showed no signs of it. I think he was 5 days in Brighton before he must have gone to the GP or something?

Those in China are presumably getting their impression that the UK is in panic mode, from media sources who are seeking out as much hype as they can find.

In the real world, we're all going about our business normally, apart from a tiny number of highly anxious types who over worry in general, and this is just something extra to fret about

Just saw Sky News and the guy has been named and is apparently fully recovered! His statement says he self isolated immediately when he found out he had come in contact with someone with it. So that was presumably a couple of days ago? Yet he's now fully recovered. Lol. Something doesn't add up here.

Can't be that bad I guess if the guy could go skiing in the Alps with a cold coronavirus

It might not be as bad as we think.