(Lack of) US Iran Peace Agreement Part 5

[OnePeppyFatball]

Part 5

Thanks for the video link, the war theatre is expanding to Africa.

Brandon Weichert is absolutely hilarious, watching his journey from full on Trumper who used to work in Washington to fuck them crazy ass rethuglicans, burn it all down is wonderful. He actually genuinely feels and expresses shame and sorrow for Minab and the destruction in Gaza and understands that Trump by following Bibi has disgraced America.

He's part of that new political group being born that are setting aside political differences to take back their country from the billionaire warmongering parasitic class. 3 years ago people like him would have mocked Ana Kasperian (and TBH she could be annoying with her lecturing🫣🙃) now they're laughing through interviews and I'm here for it.

Anthony's comment regarding "You're on the menu, we're gonna bring you some democracy" is true.

For accuracy

The five men were initially arrested on suspicion of terror offences near the base and subsequently released on bail. A sixth man, a UK-Iranian national, was also later arrested and released on bail.

Hopefully the removal of the planes lowers the threat level in the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwp8gn13lmygo

The volume of oil flowing from the Middle East region has almost returned to pre-war levels, data shows, despite the continued restrictions Iran is placing on vessels attempting to travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

Seven months after the US-Israel war with Iran led to the effective closure of the critical waterway, the maritime intelligence firm Kpler said that in the final week of September, daily oil flow from the Middle East reached 92% of its pre-war baseline.

Analysts attribute the rebounding flow of oil to three key factors:

• Ships being escorted with US military assistance
• Using shuttle tankers through the strait for transfer to different vessels
• Bypassing the strait using pipelines

But some experts have questioned the sustainability of these measures, given the risk of escalating Iranian attacks or a change in US policy.

Glad to see you acknowledge that my use of 'afford' wasn't only in terms of having enough military supplies and USD.

But you missed out the part that a heavy bombing campaign with potential US casualties might not be universally welcomed in the US. (Are they still massaging the figures?) It gives new meaning to 'no more wars', and the US no longer being the world's policeman.

There's also the tacit admission to the rest of the world that the US cannot resolve differences by using diplomacy so has chosen the new role of world bully.

Next stop ..... Cuba. Rubio is dying to mambo on down there. Talk about filling a vacancy!

@trumpredcard ,

‘But you missed out the part that a heavy bombing campaign with potential US casualties might not be universally welcomed in the US. (Are they still massaging the figures?) It gives new meaning to 'no more wars', and the US no longer being the world's policeman.’

I don’t think Trump cares about that. It is about loss cutting now. There is no good win available any more, so it is between a bad win or an ignominious loss. Trump is still going for the bad win.

‘There's also the tacit admission to the rest of the world that the US cannot resolve ‘
differences by using diplomacy so has chosen the new role of world bully.

Next stop ..... Cuba. Rubio is dying to mambo on down there. Talk about filling a vacancy!’

I think ever since that jaw dropping speech where Trump first (I think) mentioned Canada as a state and taking Greenland, that admission has been anything but tacit!

Yes, an easy win in Cuba (and surely it will be) might make Trump happy. Though what he wants or why he cares about Cuba is beyond me.

Not going to post the whole thing. It’s too long, but the link is there. WSJ:

“Ever since Oct. 7 and the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza tensions have escalated in the region after years of relative calm. The three mega powers are intensively present in all these theaters: The U.S. is squeezing the Iranian economy with increasing success. Russia is providing Iran with precise intelligence to hit U.S. forces. China is both supporting Iran (also providing intelligence on U.S. facilities) while protecting its new relationships with American allies like Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. After all, China buys roughly 90% of Iran’s oil, while a third comes from the Arab monarchies.
If this sounds complicated, it is. Foreign policy in this interconnected, fast-moving world requires more clarity, coherence and measure than ever before—the rivalries and conflicts of the Middle East are not just spreading into neighboring regions, but are fusing into a single theater that stretches from sands of the Sahel to the Bay of Bengal.
The three major military powers of the Middle East—Turkey, Iran and Israel—are maneuvering for a dominant position: Iran is attempting to survive if not win control of the Gulf. Turkey is hoping to secure a neo-Ottoman presence in Syria. And Israel is seeking security without giving up the religious-nationalist project of its current extremist ministers (who may be removed by the imminent election).
“Meanwhile, the expensively armed but vulnerable Saudi kingdom is fighting to protect its vast territory, its fragile oil facilities and its leadership of the Sunni world. Pakistan, a new contender, has long aspired to be an arbiter of Islamic power.
These countries are all competing in the new multiplayer tournament, no longer restrained by old traditions and systems, and no one power has hegemony, all being less formidable than they appear. The Middle East is, among other things, like a cerebrum of the world nervous system: its exposed nerves—trade routes and oil pipelines—making it especially sensitive to the rest of the body.
That means that contingent developments in obscure skirmishes by small forces such as the Houthis can exercise power far beyond their scale. ”
“The new conjunctions of the Middle East are less about Sunni vs. Shia or West vs. Islam than they are about the open, pro-Western version of Islam represented by U.S. allies (Saudi, Egypt and U.A.E.) in conflict with the closed, anti-Western, radical resistance version of Iran and its vassals.
Conventional wisdom still tends to look at the Middle East in the way it has worked since the end of World War II. Instead, we are seeing a totemic reaffiliation in which the states are interested less by tradition, ideology and theology and more by cold interests of security, power, tech and economics.
But will the new convergences across the world ultimately lead to a new balance that brings stability—or a lethal interconnection of conflicts that could swiftly flashover into a raging conflagration of planetary proportions?”

Excerpt From
“The Death of the Old Middle East—and the Dangerous New World Replacing It”
Simon Sebag-Montefiore
The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/Atk82DvoDTqGgpG0NC7hLaQ
This material may be protected by copyright.

I do think that a lot of previous Trump supporters have had their eyes opened. Having said that, I don't see any prospect of a decent alternative at present. The Dems are also terrible.
I found the combination of Anthony and Brendon hilarious at the end of this video. The comment that you quoted is priceless, especially after the comments about Hegseth hitting the drummer with an axe. It was a good antidote to all the depressing news.

Ignoring the bit about the MOU, because I think we disagree on who was to blame there, I already said twice that Iran had just suggested a brief ceasefire and were rejected by Trump. It's certainly possibly that they just suggested it to make themselves look better, perhaps to the Chinese, who knows, but they still offered it and were rejected.

I think it's absolutely key that Iran doesn't and won't be able to trust the US. They will therefore feel that they need to make a massive impact so that the US have to leave and can't be back next year for some more school bombing or whatever Don likes doing. What is really clear is that, if you give the US and inch, they will take a mile. They see any concessions as weakness and go on the attack.
Regarding the EU reserves, he hasn't bought months. The figure I have heard is that 20 days worth has been released, unless the consumption of the EU falls, which will plunge them into a bigger recession even faster.

Overall, I think you have far too much faith in the power of the US and not enough in the capabilities of the Iranians, the Houthis, etc, both of whom have much exceeded expectations, even of their allies. I think it's already been said on these threads that this is existential for Iran. They are used to suffering already, unlike the comfortable folks in the US and UK, etc. The US and Israel murdered their leader, his family, other leaders and a huge group of school children. These murders will only increase their determination, not reduce it.

Though what he wants or why he cares about Cuba is beyond me.

Ego. He's building his legacy and taking over Cuba will show that he's bigly better than Kennedy. (Bay of Pigs etc).
Current thinking is that Rubio wants an overthrow of the current gov't with himself governing the country and has convinced Trump that it will be an easy win.
The Cuban-Americans in Miami will build a monument to Trump, rename streets Trump Freedom Bvld/Walk/Avenue and Trump will crow about how much they love him.
When US taxpayers realise how much Rubio and Trump's ambitions will cost them, it will be too late.

Just a reminder that the EU's release of 100 million barrels of oil & crude will be spread over a four month period and going directly into the global oil market.

For context, the EU alone uses 10-11M bpd of oil. The drawdown alongside existing supplies gives 30 days if all goes back into the EU. Not months and winter is coming. So global pressure is there for both Iran and the US to get back to the negotiating table. Hopefully with real diplomats and lawyers and not Jared and Witkoff.

In the meantime, the rising fuel costs are threatening coach services, including school transport, here in the UK

Price of diesel hit £2 a litre

I've seen £2.19 on the news.

Remember back to the NATO summit, or was it G7, where Trump said the US only had a few weeks of reserve left. And here he is, US elections coming up, HE wants to get the price down for HIS election, and he forces other nations to release their reserves.

What a guy, Who cares what happens in the middle of February, it is HIS elections that matter.

Ah, but imagine the ego trip he's on. He's dictating what is really an internal administrative decision, to other countries.

Bingo, Larry Johnson has stated the same about 20 days worth being released and how it won't even stem the bleeding. The whole World is hurtling towards an economic disaster as Larry says diesel is the blood that pumps the economy. Food, products, services will all increase.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/05/iran-oil-minister-resigns-economic-crisis

Iran’s oil minister has resigned days after allegations that an intermediary trust selling Iranian oil abroad owed millions of dollars’ worth of export receipts to the state.

Mohsen Paknejad’s departure comes as Iran grapples with a dire economic situation, including inflation running at 85%. An overall drop in oil receipts has led to a massive shortfall in foreign exchange earnings and one of the biggest drops in the value of the rial since the Iranian revolution in 1979.

The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said he had accepted the resignation of Paknejad, who had given personal reasons for going.

‘Bingo, Larry Johnson has stated the same about 20 days worth being released and how it won't even stem the bleeding. The whole World is hurtling towards an economic disaster as Larry says diesel is the blood that pumps the economy. Food, products, services will all increase.’

20 days worth is a HUGE amount!

I think people are working on the assumption that there is zero diesel available rather than, say, a 10% shortfall.

If it is a 10% shortfall, that is 200 days of picking up the missing 10%.

Yemen’s Houthis have hit Saudi Arabia’s Rabigh oil refinery.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have activated the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement following an emergency meeting in Riyadh, Saudi state media reports.

They will implement a collective defence and rapidly deploy military forces to Saudi Arabia.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: “We discussed in detail what kind of support can be provided to Saudi Arabia regarding the Yemen issue and what can be done to help resolve the conflict through peaceful means.”

Mark Chadbourn

Re VZ oil, how about this

Former GOP congressman and longtime Rubio friend sentenced to 10 years for secret Venezuela lobbying | CNN Politics

"A former Miami congressman and longtime friend of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was sentenced Friday to 10 years in prison in connection with a secret $50 million lobbying campaign on Venezuela’s behalf during the first Trump administration."

"In an indictment unsealed in 2022, prosecutors alleged that Rivera was tapped by then Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez — now Venezuela’s acting president — to work Republican connections to get the first Trump administration to abandon its hard line and crippling sanctions on Venezuela."

"The three-month, $50 million contract with Rivera’s one-man consulting firm, they said, was focused on luring oil giant ExxonMobil back to Venezuela — commercial work that is generally exempt from the Foreign Agents Registration Act."

"Before being elected to Congress in 2010, Rivera was a high-ranking Florida legislator and shared a Tallahassee home with Rubio, who eventually became the Florida House speaker."

Right you are then. Former housemate and bestie of Rubio, jailed for 10 years for taking $50million bribe from Delcy Rodríguez.

The Maduro trial should be interesting.

My post included existing supplies and looked at the EU alone for the approx 30 figure. The 20 day supply estimate is therefore to supplement existing global stocks ie address the shortfall?

US sending out a message:
The US administration of President Donald Trump is pursuing both diplomatic and military options in the Iran war, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said, refusing to rule out further escalation after the US sent a third aircraft carrier to the region
Axios

I saw a headline saying that Latinos (the turkeys who voted for Christmas and helped Trump win) are now turning against Trump for the Mid-terms. Now would be a good time to invade Cuba, if I were Trump.

Article showing crude not the major issue, but diesel, due to refinery issues (due to wars).

www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/diesel-strait-of-hormuz-e1940e50?st=QZWaq5&reflink=article_copyURL_share

"Monday, October 5, 2026 4:32 PM Truth Social

What's driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis, but the word, "Refineries," where Russia's are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Ukraine's fault. And the dems. Because everyone just wants to make him and his mate Putin look bad. He did not mention diesel, but give him 2 weeks. He seems to have just understood " "Refineries,".

He does seem to have missed that Russia does not get a lot of it's oil from the Gulf. ($19 billion 2025 ?). I have no idea what oil the "Blue States, like California" use. That is blocked for me.

The squeeze on diesel caused by both wars has been discussed previously on this thread. As well as the Chinese having options to switch production from gasoline to diesel because they have many smaller refineries dotted about rather than the fewer large ones in the US etc.

Ok, ok. I know nothing much is happening, but, but... we're recycling info now.
As is the WSJ😅

@trumpredcard ,

There is a lot of recycling on any unmoderated thread.

It is in todays’s WSJ and, as I have a subscription, I thought I would share it. As I kindly provided a summary above the link, it should have made it easy for you to ignore.